July 24th, 2008
01:59 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN's Electoral Map: Both lose ground – but McCain gains edge

CNN's new electoral map.
CNN's new electoral map.

(CNN) — Two more states have shifted to the toss-up column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidates’ strength leading up to the November election.

Minnesota – which had turned from toss-up to “leans Obama” in the last analysis – is back up for grabs, along with New Mexico, which had been classified “leans McCain.” The shift of both states gives the Arizona senator a net gain of five votes over his standing in the previous CNN Electoral Map – but his opponent still has 221 electoral votes — 32 more than McCain’s total of 189, and 49 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change in New Mexico after new polling conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center showed that demographic, a major voting bloc in the state, backs Obama’s candidacy by a margin of greater than 2 to 1, 66 percent to 23 percent. Minnesota’s move comes after a new Quinnipac survey finds Obama’s lead in that state has shrunk to a statistically insignificant 2-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Election: Check out CNN's new electoral map

This is only a CNN estimate, and is likely to change many more times before Election Day.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (213 Responses)
  1. Biffington, Biff

    Edward, USA... please go back and read my comments.. i could not be MORE for Obama... I was commenting on what a poster named "typical white person" said...

    slow down... we are on the same side here.

    by the way... you rattled off some good stats...

    July 24, 2008 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  2. Raoul - Lake City, SC

    Just wait until the debates. McCain will need help wiping the egg off his face while Obama fries it on Johnny Boyz lips.

    July 24, 2008 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  3. Frosty

    CNN I hope you're not discounting the Rasmussen Minn. poll from yesterday showing an Obama 13 point lead. Because right now the Quin poll is an outlier.

    July 24, 2008 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  4. Ed in Harrisburg, PA

    To the Hillary supporters who keep threatening to vote for McCain, whatever floats your boat. You voted for a loser in the Democratic primary and you can double that with a loser in the November.

    July 24, 2008 03:05 pm at 3:05 pm |
  5. simple thought

    missouri is not a toss up state, to many of us , who are base democrats will vote for mccain, it will go republican .nuff said

    bowling green, mo.

    July 24, 2008 03:05 pm at 3:05 pm |
  6. LYNNE KIEPER

    For all the complaining about the "excessive coverage" Obama is being given, few pundits bother to mention that it's really not an advantage for him. The close scrutiny of his every move will inevitably invite criticism from many places, while McCain gets away with his one-note platform (Iraq) and all of his shocking gaffes go largely unnoticed. It's disgusting to hear that CBS even went so far as to edit out one of his recent blunders, splicing tape so the answer given to one question was really the answer to a different question. There is such a thing as media bias, but it certainly doesn't lean left. CNN please print this and start reporting honestly on McCain's ineptitude.

    July 24, 2008 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  7. Shelby

    Oh stop it CNN, you know these polls mean nothing and McCain is going to get blown out of the water (if America gets over its racism). This is no "nail-bitter" Obama could easily take all 50 states.

    July 24, 2008 03:07 pm at 3:07 pm |
  8. DEBBY, NJ

    OBAMA is going to win this election by a landslide.
    CNN I will continue to monitor the polls thru realclearpolitics. CNN is slipping and starting to look like McShame.
    BARACK THE VOTE !!!

    July 24, 2008 03:08 pm at 3:08 pm |
  9. Marie Ontario

    I don't know what all the controversy is about the fact is dedicated Republicans and Religous extremists will support John McCain and free thinking, sensible Americans will support and vote for Obama.

    The demeanor and stature of the two candidates along with their policies and honesty are all sharply contrasted. You don't have to be a genius to figure out which candidate is best for you if you aren't a dedicated Republican.

    July 24, 2008 03:08 pm at 3:08 pm |
  10. one nation under god!!!!

    all polls are liberally biased like the media.Reading what cnn just reported and removing the bias you have to add 10 to 15 percent to McCaine.I know this is all of you college kids first election but your in for a rude awkening on election day.It will be McCaine handily.I know this from past experience with the liberal media and liberal polls.Your spirits will be crushed.The political atmosphere outside college campuses are very heavily McCaine.Real americans care about real life issues like drilling for more oil, victory in Iraq and afganistan,lower taxes for our families and the big bad companies that employ us( and you too if you ever graduate).All of which McCaine has a strong edge (not repoted by the media).Low on the list of average americans big wasteful spending ,socialised medicine ,terroist rights , european sensesibilities,and migrating polar bears.I know the real world is sheltered from you in college due to socialist professors and cirriculum,but when you get in the real world and your not relying on mommy and daddies money then you can talk until then your words will never persuade any of us adults.

    July 24, 2008 03:08 pm at 3:08 pm |
  11. GC

    I've got to scratch my head on how Obama is ahead in polling for the state of Arizona, when this is the state that McCain represents, yet there are still people around the country voting for McCain. The majority of those people he represents, and has represented, day-in and day-out, in Congress are not voting for him....come on America, open your eyes.

    July 24, 2008 03:09 pm at 3:09 pm |
  12. E

    I guess people don't want change in this country. If McCain is elected then we will be in a great depression in a year and by the time the next election comes around it will be too late to change any thing. This is why we eed to make the change now and elect Obama.

    Obama '08

    July 24, 2008 03:10 pm at 3:10 pm |
  13. Rick FL

    Many of these polls do not include third party candidates, which they should. When all candidates for president are included, Obama appears to have a double-digit lead in the recent NBC/WSJ poll.

    The latest Rasmussen poll in Florida also has good news showing Obama leading here.

    Obama '08
    Si se puede!

    July 24, 2008 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |
  14. MinnesotaBluezz

    Count this Minnesota Obama supporter as Blue!!!!

    July 24, 2008 03:13 pm at 3:13 pm |
  15. Roofin Reality, Houston, Tx.

    Jack from 2:13,
    I think Senator Obama was in Ohio about three or four weeks ago. He spoke about patriotism or religion, I don't remember.
    But he's been there since the primaries ended.

    The polls show Obama up by 4-6% on average. And, his support continues to be around 45-48%. McCain hasn't been over 45%.

    Most importantly, here's what we all need to know.

    Obama keeps Kerry's states and he has 252 electoral votes.
    He's up in Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5). With just those two, he's only needing 5 more electoral votes to get to 269 (and then the House will vote him in).
    Now, to avoid that historical thorn, he needs to get 6 more votes and thus needs one or, at worst, two of the following states (of which he's very competitive in, if not leading).
    Montana (3), Nevada (5), Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (27).
    Or, dare I say it – ARIZONA (10).
    That's all we need.

    Good luck Senator Obama, and great speech today. It's been great so far, and especially with all of those people waiting to hear from you, to see our allies embrace you so warmly. Too bad a previous trip this year by your opponent wasn't nearly as warmly received by those countries.

    p.s. Great pictures with General Patreus, especially the ones in the helicopter.

    July 24, 2008 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  16. I from Canada

    Anyone else find it odd that CNN's headline suggests McCain now has an "edge" while still being down by 32 electoral votes and that it called this latest move a "net gain" of 5 electoral votes for McCain. Minnesota and New Mexico were both moved to Toss Ups – meaning both sides lost projected electoral votes! No one gained anything, McCains net loss was just smaller. I understand the media has been blamed for siding with Obama too much, but this is stretching it if they were trying to throw McCain a bone in terms of positive coverage.

    July 24, 2008 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  17. aaa

    mccains will lose anyways. mccain is a joke to me!!!!!!

    July 24, 2008 03:15 pm at 3:15 pm |
  18. Thrasher

    So if you don't like the poll results on CNN you just go to another poll that says what you want to hear? Go right ahead and try to fool yourself.

    Either way, what does this poll really mean at this point in the race?

    July 24, 2008 03:15 pm at 3:15 pm |
  19. Marcus, Great Lakes IL

    Marcus – If the majority of U.S. citizens don't vote for Obama, it is not because of the color of his skin. Does it bother you that people are voting FOR Obama because of the color of his skin? Or that people are voting against McCain because of his age? With the exception of a few out there (and there are haters in every category), the majority of Americans either favor him because of his skin color or don't care about his skin color. Obama is not qualified to lead this country…and his race has nothing to do with it.
    _____________________________________

    Oh, but I beg to differ with you. I will be voting for Obama and it has nothing to do with his skin color. It has everything to do with his vision on how great America can once again become. I am going to vote on the issues and the person who shares most of my ideals is Obama.

    As far as McCain goes, I don't care about his age, I care more on his voting records on us Veterans. I also have issues on his despicable personal life. I do not trust a man who would give the enemy information to save his sorry butt, nor do I have any respect for a man to had various affairs on his wife until he found a rich one, in which case it was time for wife number one to be thrown to the curb.

    And just what makes you think that McCain is qualified to be President?

    July 24, 2008 03:16 pm at 3:16 pm |
  20. no Obama

    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama
    no Obama

    July 24, 2008 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  21. Marcus, Great Lakes IL

    And...

    To add, when I stated:

    I have talked with quite a few people and though they won't say it aloud, they will not be voting according for the person best suited for the job but, for what color his skin is.

    Let me clarify, as there seems to be some kind of confusion or, because I am a flip-flopper.

    The people I have talked with who state that they won't vote for Obama because he is black, have told me they would never tell a stranger that is the reason.

    July 24, 2008 03:21 pm at 3:21 pm |
  22. TerryDo

    WOW, OBAMA AHEAD OF MCCAIN BY 4 POINTS.

    ARE WE ALL NOT JUST TOTALLY IMPRESSED.

    WITH A MARGIN OF ERROR +5/-5 THAT IS A PRETTY GOOD START OBAMA.

    DON'T FORGET THE JUSTICE SYSTEM IS WAITING FOR YOU WHEN Y OU LAND FOR BREAKING THE LOGAN ACT.

    July 24, 2008 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  23. Tejano

    How sweet it is. By November the Map will be all Red. The convention in Denver will open the eyes of the American Voter, both Democrats and Republicans that love America will reject Obama.
    Hillary is the only one that can carry the Democrats to Victory and they stabbed her in the back to support the African empty suit.

    July 24, 2008 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  24. Bob Indianapolis, IN

    Curious that you're running the same story twice with a different graphic....

    July 24, 2008 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  25. no McCain!

    We got a long way to November, CNN

    Stop with these polls.

    Obama '08

    July 24, 2008 03:25 pm at 3:25 pm |
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