August 20th, 2008
09:23 AM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll of polls: Obama lead cut in half

A new CNN poll of polls shows Obama's lead is dwindling.
A new CNN poll of polls shows Obama's lead is dwindling.

(CNN) - In what could be an ominous sign for Barack Obama just days before he is formally named the Democratic presidential nominee, a new CNN poll of polls out Tuesday shows the Illinois senator's lead over John McCain has been cut in half in recent days.

According to CNN's average of several recent national surveys, Obama's lead is now a slim 3 points over the Arizona senator, 46-43 percent - half of his advantage in a CNN poll of polls one week ago, and down from a high of 8 points in mid-July.

Election Center: Check out CNN's electoral map

The latest poll results come amid increased attacks from McCain on Obama's readiness to be commander-in-chief and the re-emergence of national security worries among voters in the wake of the Georgia crisis.

“Over the last week, we’ve seen Sen. Obama’s lead in the poll of polls cut in half,” noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “This change was likely driven by a renewed focus on foreign policy after Russia’s invasion of Georgia, as well as by Sen. McCain’s willingness to launch more aggressive attacks against Obama on issues such as off-shore drilling."

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out Tuesday evening was the latest national survey to indicate Obama's lead is dwindling, putting the Illinois senator ahead of McCain by only 2 points, well within the poll's margin of error. The CNN Poll of polls also includes new surveys from Quinnipiac and Gallup.

But the recent downturn in the polls for Obama may not last - the Democratic White House hopeful is headed for a week of what is likely to be overwhelmingly postive coverage as he names his running mate and officially accepts his party's presidential nomination.

"The big question now is whether Obama can successfully regain control of the campaign agenda as we head into the Democratic convention," Silverleib also said.

soundoff (612 Responses)
  1. Mike - Texas

    Obama is in trouble.

    Kerry was up on Bush by 24 points leading into the democratic convention 4 years ago and Gore led by a large margin as well.

    Historically, the democratic candidate is ususally up 20 – 25 points over his republican rival at this time of year. So, to only be up by 3 points and within the margin of error does not bode well for Obama.

    With the way the economy is, either one of those 2 candidates would have probably been up by 40 points or more over Bush.

    Hillary would have been a LOT stonger cadidate.

    August 20, 2008 08:47 am at 8:47 am |
  2. Luis in Miami

    Why is that surprising to anyone. I do not think that with a party in disarray we are going to win this one. The DNC made a fatal mistake by thinking that they will pick a candidate for us and then we will follow like cattle. WRONG… never take away the will of the people.

    My vote was taken away then as a gesture of "goodwill" I got back 1/2 my vote but to the DNC please no favors we need to go by the "rules". Now I am an independent and will vote for McCain in November.

    Obama if you really want party unity pick Hillary as your running mate and you will win in November; I guarantee it. If you are not having a serious run pick anyone else. She is the other strong candidate. This is so simple it baffles my mind.

    August 20, 2008 08:48 am at 8:48 am |
  3. THE WORLD IS WATCHING

    PUMA'S..................................women of Mrs. Clinton.......this is exactly why men and society won't RESPECT US AS WOMEN............why you ask?......................................too EMOTIONAL.....................STOP leading with your emotions and FREAKIN THINK FOR ONCE

    August 20, 2008 08:49 am at 8:49 am |
  4. Olayemi,Lagos-NIGERIA

    By the time the debates are over, AMERICANS should have a clearer opinion as to who best serves the interest of the common man, and is ready to put the COUNTRY above the religious emotions of christian fundamentalists! The real polls come in NOV. Hope AMERICANS choose wisely.

    OBAMA is so kind to his adversary-not questioning his love for the US. this is proof of him not willing to practice "POLITICS OF BITTERNESS" as we call it in NIGERIA.

    That is CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN!

    YES WE CAN!

    August 20, 2008 08:49 am at 8:49 am |
  5. douglas

    thats wat i expect. they want to show obamas numbers shrinhking at this point then show a marginal increase after the convention then again show a decrease wen Mc-idiot concludes his convention.

    we know how the media manipulates poll in order to keep pple on the edge.

    the die is cast and the train is leaving......

    August 20, 2008 08:49 am at 8:49 am |
  6. j williamson

    Nominate Hillary! Obama supporters: Would you rather be "right" or would you rather win?

    August 20, 2008 08:49 am at 8:49 am |
  7. Cheri

    If McCain wins the presidency god help us all!!!! It will be 4 more years of the same old crap we had under Bush but worse.McCain is a warmonger who will have us in another war and in debt so bad that we will never recover.

    August 20, 2008 08:50 am at 8:50 am |
  8. bill from pa

    These polls are pretty meaningless during the summer. This presidential race has been going on for TWO YEARS. Enough already. Even people like myself who are interested in politics are tired of the endless race for the whitehouse. America is pretty much tuning out.

    August 20, 2008 08:50 am at 8:50 am |
  9. Ian

    Looks like the only "change" Obama is going to make is John McCain's diaper.

    August 20, 2008 08:50 am at 8:50 am |
  10. Michael

    It's impossible that McCain is this close. His entire campaign is composed of making fun of Obama from 12:00 to 4:00 M-F and going to bed at 5:00 PM .

    This is just media propaganda to make people feel the election is close and keep their ratings high. We went to war to make the rich richer. The media is no less corrupt, these polls are all about money.

    August 20, 2008 08:50 am at 8:50 am |
  11. Sick & Tired of Nobama

    Just a matter of time before he loses in a landslide. We are sick of his constant attacks on McCain. We are sick of his good reverend. We are sick of his unpatriotic wife. We are sick of his O force one. We are sick of his not so presidential seal. We are sick of his change change change with no real change. We are sick of his purple lips.
    Just go away Nobama, the sooner the better.
    Go back to Chicago and do your job.

    August 20, 2008 08:50 am at 8:50 am |
  12. Don from Delaware

    If the average American looks around they would see that this country is in the toilet what with 2 wars, a terrible economy, national debt in the trillions. I f we continue to elect idiots such as George W and his clone Mr. Mcgoo we will be in the sewer shortly never to rise again. The Europeans shudder and shake their heads in disbelief that we are so stupid to elect much of the same!

    August 20, 2008 08:52 am at 8:52 am |
  13. deidre

    Obama/Clinton 2008!!

    August 20, 2008 08:52 am at 8:52 am |
  14. naomi

    good.

    August 20, 2008 08:52 am at 8:52 am |
  15. Charlie in Maine

    Why can't you poll people who use cell phones? That would show a different poll indeed. I just hope that he Obama supporters (probably working their extra job to make ends meet) that are too busy to answer polls are not to busy to vote. It is all about turn-out.

    Go Obama

    August 20, 2008 08:52 am at 8:52 am |
  16. Chuck

    I think the Dems picked the wrong person for POTUS.

    August 20, 2008 08:52 am at 8:52 am |
  17. Felice Judkins

    These polls mean absolutely nothing. The poll, that matters is Election day! BTW, no one has ever polled me, so who is being polled? Every day it's a different poll and numbers. No one knows the true accuracy on either side. it's amazing though how the media tries to slant and to skew numbers to affect the outcome. I hope people will not be persuaded by "polls". vote your own mind and heart no matter which candidate you support.

    August 20, 2008 08:53 am at 8:53 am |
  18. Charlotte

    Not surprising considering his flip-flopping on major issues and his plan to rebuild Georgia when our own Georgia needs help. He is a joke and a novice on the national scene. Come to think of it, he is a novice in the US Senate. Maybe people are finally waking up to his lack of experience in a lot of areas. I see no reason, thus far, to cast a vote for Obama. I don't like McCain either, so I'll still write Hillary on my ballot.

    August 20, 2008 08:53 am at 8:53 am |
  19. fella from Chicago

    Don't look now hare, but the tortoise is about to overtake you. Lots of pro-Obama rhetoric now, but when the people get in the privacy of the voting booth in November, they'll go with the proven track record of an American hero with his 26 years of governmental service to this country. Nothing against you Barack, but John McCain is just the better fit for the job.

    August 20, 2008 08:53 am at 8:53 am |
  20. DCM IL

    Its about time this country is starting to wake up. Has anyone looked at what shape IL government is in ? Why don't he do some of his work here where he is already elected ( by defalt ) . He has not done one thing for this State!! I can"t believe that people want him in charge of the whole Country!!

    August 20, 2008 08:53 am at 8:53 am |
  21. D R

    That shows you what negative McCain attacks will do. And worse, it shows how little this country cares about the serious condition it's in. McCain voters get ready for world war three! You have a very senile, quick tempered old man, with a chip on his shoulder!

    August 20, 2008 08:53 am at 8:53 am |
  22. R. L. Reedy

    Watch Obama's "lead" shrink more and more as his panty waist politics are exposed time after time. Do the words "silent majority" ring a bell, people??????

    August 20, 2008 08:53 am at 8:53 am |
  23. Charlotte

    Not surprising considering his flip-flopping on major issues and his plan to rebuild Georgia when our own Georgia needs help. He is a joke and a novice on the national scene. Come to think of it, he is a novice in the US Senate. Maybe people are finally waking up to his lack of experience in a lot of areas. I see no reason, thus far, to cast a vote for Obama. I don't like McCain either, so I'll still write Hillary on my ballot

    August 20, 2008 08:54 am at 8:54 am |
  24. JB, Boston

    35% of the posts will be HRC fans saying "Hillary would be running away with this by now", "she is the only one who can lead" blah blah blah

    35% will be from Obama fans screaming that polls mean nothing blah blah blah

    To the HRC supporters, maybe if you weren't such crybabies and voted for YOUR parties nominee, Obama wouldn't be neck and neck with McCain, and therefore your argument that Hillary could do better is INVALID, because of your manipulation.

    To the Obama supporters, don't be a hypocrite. You cannot claim victory in certIain polls and poo poo those that don't tell the story you want to hear.

    There CNN, I summed up the responses to this post. Can we close it and move on?

    August 20, 2008 08:54 am at 8:54 am |
  25. tennisguypitt

    I'm not worried, it's not November yet. Polls don't mean anything this soon.

    Obama '08

    August 20, 2008 08:54 am at 8:54 am |
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