August 27th, 2008
04:05 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN poll: Obama takes double-digit lead in battleground state

DENVER (CNN) - A new national poll indicates Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in New Mexico, while the battle for the Colorado is a dead heat between the presumptive Democratic nominee and Republican rival John McCain.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Wednesday has the Obama up by 13 points in New Mexico, 53 to 40 percent. The state has had two close calls in the past two elections, with Vice President Al Gore slipping past George W. Bush in 2000 and President Bush edging out Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for years ago.

It’s a different story in Colorado, where the Democrats are holding their national convention this week. On the eve of Obama’s presidential acceptance speech in Denver, the poll suggests John McCain has a 47 percent to 46 percent advantage over Obama. Taking into account the survey’s sampling error, that’s a virtual dead heat. Bush won Colorado by eight points in 2000, and by five points in the last election.

"The Democrats chose Denver for their convention in the hopes of poaching Colorado from the GOP," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It appears that hasn't happened yet, although Thursday night's main event in Denver's football stadium may help Obama make some inroads." Holland notes that the poll indicates a huge gender gap in Colorado, with 55 percent of women going for Obama and 55 percent of men picking McCain.

It’s also a close race in Nevada, another Western state Obama’s campaign would like to turn from red to blue. President Bush won the state by narrow margins in the last two elections. But the poll indicates Obama has a five point margin over McCain, 49 to 44 percent.

Obama named Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate on Saturday. Although Biden is a longtime Delaware resident, he was born and raised in Pennsylvania. Has the Biden announcement made an impact in the Keystone State? Our new poll doesn’t show any indication of that so far. Obama holds a 5-point edge in our new survey, 48 to 43 percent. That’s pretty much where recent polls from other organizations have put the race.

"Pennsylvania voters tend to be a bit older than in most states, so it's good news for Obama that he's actually carrying senior citizens in the Keystone State. Nationally, seniors tend to pick McCain," Holland said. "But the bad news for Obama is that he's only pulling a quarter of the rural voters in Pennsylvania. That's a far worse showing for Obama than rural voters in Nevada or Colorado."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation surveys were conducted Sunday through Tuesday, with 670 registered voters in Colorado, 625 in Nevada, 659 in New Mexico and 669 in Pennsylvania questioned by telephone. The sampling error for each poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • CNN Polls • Extra • John McCain
soundoff (106 Responses)
  1. Anonymous

    Tied in Colorado, a state Repubs have won in the last two elections, is not trouble.

    August 27, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  2. Amber

    New Mexico....lol. Okay CNN! Whatever you say. Excited over nothing

    August 27, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  3. anonymouys

    i thought its ohio goes so does the the nation

    August 27, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  4. Michael

    This state has been tettering red/blue for some time. No big deal. What do the polls say about Virginia, North Carolina and Montana? Those states Obama claims he has a shot. Probably not, otherwise, CNN would have blasted that story by now.

    August 27, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  5. only in your dreams

    Only in your dreams, I'm sorry to say, but without Hillary's full committment I think Obama is in trouble and I think Hillary is setting herself up for a run in 2012. Obama has no security experience, no leadership experience, no foreign policy experience and he picks Biden, another liberal tax monger, must control the people democrate. If Obama really wanted change instead on the regular washington status quo, he might of picked someone with a better background. I will now vote for McCain and more of the same, but its better that being taxed by a democrate

    August 27, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  6. NoMcSame

    I know that it hurts CNN to report that. FOX must be reporting it too in order for CNN to report it. CNN=FOX BUSH=McSame
    Obama will win in 08
    Report That CNN

    August 27, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  7. Brian Beherenow

    I am starting to think that many of these polls are flawed...lets consider that Barack has particular appeal among young voters and new voters, many who are college age, many who do not vote in primaries but will likely vote in the general election....most of these polls are made up of already registered voters and people deemed "likely voters" (i.e.: those who've voted before)

    Lets also consider that many of his college-age voters are just getting back to school and will likely register to vote in the states and districts where they attend college and not necessarily in their home states....let's also consider that these college age voters are mobile, they don't have their own homes and therefore don't have their own land line telephone numbers where they can be contacted...pollsters don't call cell phones!

    Then lets consider those undecided voters...why haven't they decided? John McCain has been on the political scene for some time, they saw him run for president in 2000...They've had plenty of time to decide if they like John McCain or not. Barack Obama on the other hand is a relative new-comer to national politics, people are still getting to know him and getting to know what he stands for....I suspect these undecided voters would probably have already committed to McCain by now if they were going to....I suspect many of them will break for Obama as we get closer to November and they get a bit more comfortable with him.

    So lets not get too excited about these polls, because I think this election is FAR different than any election we've seen before.

    August 27, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  8. Rick

    Hmmm, shouldn't the headline read "Obama takes double-digit lead in one battleground state, trails in another"?

    August 27, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  9. Spencer from VA

    I'm not sure if you guys are aware of it yet, but Virginia is a battleground state which has been red for far too long. Soon to be Sen. Mark Warner and current Governor Tim Kaine will ensure that Virginia goes blue this time around. So you might as well count New Mexico and Virginia.

    Obama/Biden 08

    August 27, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  10. TonyNJHC

    Ahead in a few states you say? Has the still exploded yet? Better run the batch twice through the still less ye wake up blind!

    August 27, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  11. fa

    NO WAY. NO HOW. NO McCAIN

    August 27, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  12. stuff is silly

    All it takes is for McCain to put a female on his ticket...Obama will lose if that happens.

    August 27, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  13. HF from PA

    I really think the polls are not telling the real story. I live in a somewhat conservative part of the state and honestly...I haven't seen a single McCain sticker or yard sign...All I see is Obama. In this part of the state it really should be the other way around. I'm beginning to believe this is going to be a bigger win for Obama than the data is showing

    August 27, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  14. Tony

    GO TEAM OBIDEN!!

    Show those republicant's

    August 27, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  15. anonymouys

    so does that means new mexico is a leaning state when is cnn elotoral map going to change

    August 27, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  16. POW

    Latest news!!!!!
    MCCain was only 1 week POW. His 4 star General dad send in the marines and hid him for 5 and half years. Hiding his stupid son that crashed on his first flight thats what his dad did.

    NO more WAR

    August 27, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  17. Republicans Hate America

    Why does McCain want to restart the draft?

    August 27, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  18. Mallinda Chong-anderson

    Hope Latino/Hispanic voters are considering not voting for Obama since he represents the bullies Democrat Leaders, where are the Latinos/Hispanics in this convention, it is like we do not exist for them, lets vote for McCain and send the message to the DEMOCRATS LEADERS that we can not be taken for granted.
    PLEASE, VOTE FOR MCCAIN, unless they will apreciate our presence.

    August 27, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  19. Sig, Los Angeles CA

    Umm... Steve,

    Obama is now back up by one point in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll and I don't see a ticker on McCNN for that either.

    August 27, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  20. Mauri

    Once Hillary is out of the picture, Obama and Biden will begin to spiral downward. Remember you saw it here.

    August 27, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  21. vic nashville,Tn

    Nearly 70 days more any thing could happen in that time period
    I don’t believe until September 8th
    That day only Lou Dobbs back in the air

    August 27, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  22. Farrell, Houston, Tx

    Listen up: McCain may have to cancel his convention due to a hurricane forecast in Louisiana to go there. McCain doesn't need to go to Louisiana to get "BLOWN AWAY".

    August 27, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  23. Mallinda Chong-anderson

    Hope Latino/Hispanic voters are considering not voting for Obama since he represents the bullies Democrat Leaders, where are the Latinos/Hispanics in this convention, it is like we do not exist for them, lets vote for McCain and send the message to the DEMOCRATS LEADERS that we can not be taken for granted.
    PLEASE, VOTE FOR MCCAIN, unless they will apreciate our presence

    August 27, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  24. Abby

    you can fool some people sometimes but you cant fool all the people all the time!!!

    OBAMA 08

    August 27, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  25. John from Canada

    Been meaning to say this how about this
    Obama/Biden 2008
    Obama/Clinton 2012
    Clinton/ 2016
    Clinton/M.Obama 2020
    M.Obama/C.Clinton 2024
    M.Obama/C.Clinton 2030
    C.Clinton/ 2034
    C.Clinton/ 2038

    How does that sound

    August 27, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
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