DENVER (CNN) - A new national poll indicates Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in New Mexico, while the battle for the Colorado is a dead heat between the presumptive Democratic nominee and Republican rival John McCain.
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Wednesday has the Obama up by 13 points in New Mexico, 53 to 40 percent. The state has had two close calls in the past two elections, with Vice President Al Gore slipping past George W. Bush in 2000 and President Bush edging out Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for years ago.
It’s a different story in Colorado, where the Democrats are holding their national convention this week. On the eve of Obama’s presidential acceptance speech in Denver, the poll suggests John McCain has a 47 percent to 46 percent advantage over Obama. Taking into account the survey’s sampling error, that’s a virtual dead heat. Bush won Colorado by eight points in 2000, and by five points in the last election.
"The Democrats chose Denver for their convention in the hopes of poaching Colorado from the GOP," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It appears that hasn't happened yet, although Thursday night's main event in Denver's football stadium may help Obama make some inroads." Holland notes that the poll indicates a huge gender gap in Colorado, with 55 percent of women going for Obama and 55 percent of men picking McCain.
It’s also a close race in Nevada, another Western state Obama’s campaign would like to turn from red to blue. President Bush won the state by narrow margins in the last two elections. But the poll indicates Obama has a five point margin over McCain, 49 to 44 percent.
Obama named Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate on Saturday. Although Biden is a longtime Delaware resident, he was born and raised in Pennsylvania. Has the Biden announcement made an impact in the Keystone State? Our new poll doesn’t show any indication of that so far. Obama holds a 5-point edge in our new survey, 48 to 43 percent. That’s pretty much where recent polls from other organizations have put the race.
"Pennsylvania voters tend to be a bit older than in most states, so it's good news for Obama that he's actually carrying senior citizens in the Keystone State. Nationally, seniors tend to pick McCain," Holland said. "But the bad news for Obama is that he's only pulling a quarter of the rural voters in Pennsylvania. That's a far worse showing for Obama than rural voters in Nevada or Colorado."
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation surveys were conducted Sunday through Tuesday, with 670 registered voters in Colorado, 625 in Nevada, 659 in New Mexico and 669 in Pennsylvania questioned by telephone. The sampling error for each poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The relevence is that if Obama can win the states Kerry won, plus either Ohio or NV, NM, and VA, he would win, of something close to that.
The point is, don't pay attention to the national polls; it's the state-by-state polls that matter.
I'm gonna tell you straight up. If my boy can take Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico, that's not a help, that's a game changer!! It arguably can have an impact to surrounding states nearby. But you know what? I LOVE it that it's close....
I was for Hillary and there is no way I would vote for Obama, there is nothing no one can say I probably wouldn't vote for him leaving out how he has done Hillary and those superdelegates should be ashamed of themselves.
EX HILLARY LATINO DEMOCRATS WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN. NO OBAMA, NO, HE CAN'T..
McCain = WW3
NO WAY. NO HOW. NO McCain
the media knows this race is over,the demographics is not on mccain side,the minority vote will be 29%,mccain cannot overcome that,thats why obama is leading that big in mexico,mccain will have to win the white vote by 20pts,right now he is only leading by 13pts
OBAMA IS AHEAD IN TODAYS GULLUP POLL. SO YOU I DONT WANT TO MENTION YOUR NAME. GET YOUR FACTS TOGETHER. YOU ARE STILL IN THE PAST LIKE YOUR CANDIDATE
NO WAY-NO HOW NO OBAMA
romney not going to win no matter how many attack ads he run even 1000000000
REPEAT AFTER ME.....
OBAMA/BIDEN WILL WIN IN NOV
OBAMA/BIDEN WILL WIN IN NOV
OBAMA/BIDEN WILL WIN IN NOV
THE SLEEPING GIANT IS STARTING TO WAKE UP.
I believe "polls'" are always misleading. There are so many variables in the poll. It is very misleading.
No matter what state is being talked about, the media (especially CNN) calls it a battleground state. They can't ALL be battleground states...just more drama from the media.
Candidates losing ground the polls DURING their convention is a really really bad sign.
That said, it will be a close race. Florida and Ohio will be important again. Virginia will NOT go for Obama, nor will Georgia or the Carolinas.
BHO takes all of Kerry's states plus Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. 269 to 269. Let the games begin.
Wonderful news !!! This Way, How, comes Obama !!! ET go home !!
Post convention bounce prediction: Less than 5 points, which McCain will make up next week. Obama had one shot, pick hillary. He blew it. Obama, YOU ARE THE WEAKEST LINK!
Obama's acceptance speech better be historic–he still has a trust gap with some of the voters in the Democratic base.
No way, No how, No Mccain.
No way,No how, No Mccain.
No way, No how, NoMccain.
If the electoral college ends up 269/269...Obama wins, because the congress decides...
It's like retribution for the stolen 2000 election...I kind of don't mind that scenario...
Obama has gone from a double digit lead to trailing McCain...
Wow, New Mexico still likes him, go figure. Bill Richardson is a moron, and they voted him for Gov.
I wouldn't count on "The College Kid" vote, unless the voting stations are on the way to their local head shop.
You have a relatively unknown, who's lack of experience is ultimately going to be the nail in his coffin, vs a seasoned veteran like McCain.
The two messages that i've heard since this all started.
Democrats: Let's play America's dislike of Bush by continually repeating that McCain is Bush, because they both have the (R) stamp on their names.
Republicans: Obama has virtually no experience and shouldn't even be in charge of running a Walmart let alone POTUSA.
I think i'll take the very real experience issue over the fabricated McCain=Bush issue.
By 2050 whites will be the minority so unless GOP starts courting the black and Hispanic votes a GOP is in trouble.
No way, No How, No McCain. Obama has served and earned this nomination by compaigning against his opponent for 19 months. If you think that he stole it I am asking you where have you being during the primary season. Enough of this nonsense and if you are a true Democrat with value you cannot dare stay home or vote for McCain. After all this convention and the election the way you vote will hunt and hurt you for many years in your pockets and the future of this nation. We cannot afford having the US carying its white plate to China and beg them for money. This has never happen before in our history but under this republican government. Having McCain in for four more years we will be begging China for more money and we will face great deception from them.
YES WE CAN.
CNN PLEASE DO US A FAVOR AND FORGET ABOUT THOSE POLLS. YOU ALL HAVE 2 POST ON HERE WITHIN 3 MINUTES OF EACH OTHER. ONE SAYING THAT THE RACE IS TIGHT AND THE OTHER SAYING THAT OBAMA HAS A DOUBLE DIGIT LEAD!!!!