September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.

CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. Shari, NY

    Whatever!! See you on November 4.

    September 19, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  2. Sarah.....and my last name isn't Palin!

    You should also remove Indiana from lean McCain to toss-up. The race is very tight there.

    September 19, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  3. Sandra

    Polls mean nothing to me simply because I've received a few calls from pollsters who get deliberate false answers from me regarding my choice of candidate, etc. The reason? To prove that polls are unscientific and therefore do not paint an accurate picture of what the country is really thinking.

    September 19, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  4. James

    I find it amazing that people are saying Obama is politicizing the economic crisis. The only people talking about it going to help him in the election are the talking heads on TV. Obama has NEVER said such a thing, and people are putting words in his mouth.

    Anyone running for office can be accused of this if they speak at all on the issue. For Mccain to SAY that Obama is Politicizing this IS politicizing the ISSUE. This guy is so dishonest, and praying that the American people will be stupid and not see through this.

    September 19, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  5. Rodger

    By the end of October Obama will win 400 electoral votes!

    September 19, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  6. Tired

    Maybe we shouldn't be wasting trillions of Dollars on spreading democracy. It's obvious that people are too stupid to be given the right to vote.

    September 19, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  7. Cindy


    These polls are purposefully skewed to giev the imperession that McCain has an edge because the reality is that McCain is losing ground quickly, day by day!!!


    Go Obama!

    September 19, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  8. Jerry Ohio

    How is these folks coming up with these polls nobody ever ask me to take a polls these news network are lying ...Obama going to win by a lanslide watch and see.. Obama staff are out in full force.

    Obama/Biden 08

    September 19, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |

    O B A M A--C AN ' T--C L O S E---–S A L E---T R E N D--–

    I S--–A G A I N S T--–H I M

    September 19, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  10. White Privilege

    The debates will show America that OldMcSame and moose stew aren't ready for this!

    September 19, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  11. mack

    This article states that national polls are made up mainly from respondents from large states, such as California,Texas and New York. Since CA and NY are largely democratic and large portions of Texas have been out of contact since Ike, could Obama's rise in the polls be artificial???

    September 19, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  12. Lawrence for barack

    he can have those two states, but ohio and indiana gonna determine the election, maybe the american people need to wake up, unless its still a race issue.

    September 19, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  13. Dana

    How come CNN polls never match with any of the other polls- I just saw a poll released today on that also uses composite polling that had Obama ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota?
    Who knows these polls are so unreliable anyway- but everyone has different numbers.

    September 19, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  14. Sandy

    I am so confused by this electoral map. All things considering, I don't think that a map would change so dramatically or drastically from one side to another overnight.
    I can understand trends but to so forcefully move one state from probable to leaning in one fell swoop just don't measure up.
    I've read and heard that many states were using less then reputable pollsters who weighed their polls one way or another depending upon their preferences, if this is so, I wonder what poll information and data CNN has used to shift their electoral map?

    September 19, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  15. Cindy

    Obama's the new candidate on the block, given that fact he's doing outstanding but these announcers would never ever communicate that fact!

    Oabam for President!

    September 19, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  16. Jessica

    Obama has to be concerned that so many traditional blue states are so close.


    September 19, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  17. Bruce

    the only poll that matters is the one on 11/4///
    I have been a voter since I was 18 ( 54 now) and no one has ever called me for a poll...these mean nothing...and all that anyone is doing by posting these on a daily, almost hourly basis is fooling the voters.

    September 19, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  18. PoliticoPundit

    Predictions predictions predictions!!!

    If the rate at which Obama is going down , after actual DEBATES, Obama will be in negative lead, that means losing ( just clarification) . Obama is popular and will win Popular vote and I waould like him to, because he can give great SPEACHES but the actuals which counts , the ELECTORAL VOTES, Obama will lose.

    September 19, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  19. J from DC

    How is it that Fox news is able to report that McCain leading Obama by 14 on the electoral map? Why is no one challenging them on this? Or at least reveal how their numbers are not creditable.

    I just heard Biden speak in VA. His message was powerful. He just ripped the socks off John McCain. He said some things to women that I have not even heard spoken by Hillary Clinton. Obama is always presidential in his speeches, but women need to hear Biden. He just went hard on McCain and Palin. The story that is missing in this whole news cycle is: Why Biden makes McCain so uncomfortable? I am in DC, and I still have not figured it out. I know there is something there, but I can’t put my finger on it. Even still, if you watch McCain closely, the signs are there.
    McCain claims he would fire Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Committee. Yet, McCain won’t even fire his economic advisor Phil Gramm. The real man who created policies which contributed greatly to this recent Economic Meltdown. Unbelievable! Maverick or Mouse, or pathological liar?
    McCain has nothing on the Economy. We already know that Palin has nothing to offer. We watched that sad ABC and even sadder Fox interview this week. Obama made a real quality pick, when he selected Biden and everyone has forgotten that. Biden may not have gotten a lot of primary votes, but Palin didn’t ever run. She knew she wasn’t ready. Biden may very well be the most qualified of all the candidates.

    September 19, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  20. Mike, Syracuse NY

    Best news I've heard this week. Bye, Bye, 'bama! Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.

    September 19, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  21. GOBAMA

    Close race. Obama is never going to win. I wish he would, but those are the facts. It all comes down to the youth vote, and they never seem to show on election day. Get ready for four more years of crazy knee-jerk decisions, gestapo rhetoric and war.

    September 19, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  22. Gia in Los Angeles

    Considering recent polling and the current trend, I think it would be much more accurate to move Indiana and North Carolina from leaning McCain to toss-up. Why don't they do that?

    September 19, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  23. Ryan

    This doesn't really have to do with this article but I would appreciate it being posted anyway.

    I had complained a lot about CNN and other media outlets not doing their job which is informing us of the truth and I am happy to see that CNN is now adding a bunch of fact checks to the ticker. Thank you for finally giving us fact checks on the daily things the campaigns say.

    September 19, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  24. Paying Attention

    I live in Missouri. I am not ready to give up on Obama winning in Missouri. I think the polls have this one wrong.

    September 19, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  25. Cindy

    McCain the experienced one should be way ahead of Obama; he's barely hanging on!!! Gove me a break pollsters- Skewed polls is what you're good for!

    Go Obama!

    September 19, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
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