September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.

CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. mitchell

    obama's experts on the economy are better for the nation.

    September 19, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  2. Brian B

    This race shouldn't be close, there is only ONE reason why it is.

    September 19, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  3. Iroko Nija

    I cant wait to watch the debate. Mc Cain is just making me everyday. He just keeps telling lies and acting before he thinks of what should be done.
    Ride on OBAMA/BIDEN

    September 19, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  4. Greenwalk

    I just looked at the Gallup Poll at 4:52 Friday evening. Obama is up 5%. I wouldn't pay too much to these polls...JUST VOTE!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  5. I am Canadian 2

    Canadians were victims of lies and deceit from the Liberals, they got caught, so we voted in Conservatives in the following election, we did not need a 2nd or a 3rd chance, please America, wake up!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  6. The Independent

    Here the GOP is again trying to deceive the good people of the state of Ohio and the proud Ohio State's team by taking pot shots at Mr. Biden over his rallying comments to his beloved foot ball team. So what? The current GOP is crying and whining fouls on any chance it can get. Why, for god sake? Where are the proud Reagan Republican with all the good ideas for the country? Why can these good folks tell the current GOP that it is ENOUGH? I voted for Regan TWICE. I can no longer bring myself to vote for any GOP person now. Why do we keep talking about Pig, Lipstick, Paris Hilton, Hollywood, Britney Spears, Football, etc. whereas our citizens in Ohio are losing their homes and their jobs by the thousands...

    September 19, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  7. Susan Tarvin

    Realizing that the Democratic Presidential ticket could lose, I am now gathering the names of corporations, movie stars, celebrities and States that vote for or support Republican candidates. And when the results are in, my family, friends and I will not see movies or visit States or patronize corporations that supported or sponsored the McCain ticket. And in gathering some of the material so far, I now know that Disneyland and Bruce Willis won't be getting my spare change in the years ahead. (Tsk.) And I'm getting ready to see which States we will be traveling to and vacationing in during the next four years. While I'm actively working to support the Obama ticket, and hope I can help to push his current lead over the edge, in viewing how the last election went, I'm fairly pessimistic. I'm hoping for a big change in November and keeping my fingers crossed. I love the work CNN does to discuss all the issues going on now. Thanks,
    Susan Tarvin

    September 19, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  8. Whisper

    The color is changing in Northern California.

    The silence groups whisper: NObama, Nobama,NObama.

    The sound of silence ecos.

    We vote McCain not for the "CUTE", but for the great man. Got it? Michelle O.?

    September 19, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  9. gary

    i think both the mccain and palin campaign is a joke mc cain is senile and palin should use her shooting skills for the war on terror and leave the wolves alone

    September 19, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  10. Deb

    It is amazing how a liar can run for office and become President of this great nation. Very disappointing.

    September 19, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  11. Lonnie Allen

    Polls mean nothing. This speculation means Nothing. If these stupid Journalist or wait These entertainers would actually get out and dig for facts. We as Americans would get the truth. But since Media is controlled by Corporate sponsors Americans will never find out real truth from 24 hour news media. I will wait until November to really care who is winning the election. It as Eward Morrow said 50 years ago TV news would be controlled by the sponsors and not the Journalist.

    September 19, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  12. Carolyn

    Don't know who you poll. Don't believe them. Common sense tells they're not true – unless you're just polling Republicans.

    September 19, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  13. Mike

    All we have to do is wait another minute and the McCain camp will blame The Obama Camp for the Blue Hens getting beat again.


    September 19, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  14. Vote4Obama

    As stated before by others, I believe those individuals that do not have land lines and only use their cell phones have not been taken into consideration....

    The numbers can't be right! There are TOO MANY voters that no longer use land lines out there....

    CNN please start taking this formula into play when putting the numbers out to the American Public.... CNN you could be misleading many Americans!?

    Obama/Biden '08

    September 19, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  15. aware

    Good news!

    McCain/Palin 08! A proven record of reform that puts country over party! 🙂

    Obama has not demonstrated the experience, humility, servant leadership, relational skills, judgment, courage, stability, integrity, moral center or core values to be president of the United States of America!

    September 19, 2008 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  16. Mark

    From this old man saying that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong", thinking that Spain's Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is an extremist from Latin America, and Palin calling their campaign a "Palin/McCain" campaign, I'm totally confused. What election are these people in Missouri and Wyoming watching? Give me a break.

    Obama/Biden 08

    September 19, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |


    September 19, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  18. mitchell

    i think the yellows and blues should combine forces to defeat the reds cuz' ,if you look at the map, the red states are dividing the country. red right down the middle! NO MORE DIVIDING OUR COUNTRY RED STATES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  19. darko

    This is funny though because I can still remember the Obamatards promising that he'd be ahead in polls by 15-20% by September.

    I find it funny how Obama has flip-flopped his entire image. Replay some video's of him back in December-January and compare him to now... He went from the fresh new reformer to just another liberal democrat politicing with the washington elites.

    September 19, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  20. YesWeCanForFree

    For the first time in my life, I am convinced Obama will be the next president of the United States of America.

    I watched his press conference on today's financial crisis. He was with Clinton economic advisers (Rubin, Tyson, Spelling and others). on background as David Gergen suggested last week on CNN.

    It worked. He looked presidential not just as campaigner for the position.

    I always thought Obama is no good without teleprompter help. Today he proved me wrong.

    He took several questions from reporters. He answered the subject matters like laser beams. He was good.

    Is Obama the reincarnation of Bill Clinton or what?

    At least today, it looked that way to me. You earned my vote.

    September 19, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  21. Amy

    I guess this shows that some people are really gullible and uninformed. People, learn to use and see all the BS the McCain/Palin ticket is feeding the American public. On another note – if someone votes based on a candidates sports team preference it's truly a sad day for democracy when there are such stark differences between the campaigns!

    September 19, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  22. joe

    all the liberals on the coasts are swaying the national polls.

    when obama calls the midwestern people from small towns BITTER, GUN TOTING CURCH GOERS he doesn't deserve their vote. I'd say they are hardworking, patriiotic americans with strong values. these states are where the election will be decided.


    oh yeah and can someone tell me one thing that obama has done besides being a community organizer.

    September 19, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  23. MD in CT

    When Karl Rove denounces the campaign tactics of a Republican, there is not much more to say. Anyone who makes less than $5,000,000 a year who votes for McCain now certainly deserves never to own their own home, never to have job security, never to have affordable health insurance, never to see their child or grandchild go to college, and to watch all the CEOs of failing companies walk away with multimillion dollar retirements while not ever having a chance to retire. If you are that stupid, you deserve the new Republican form of slavery.

    I think an old blues song says it best:

    Dear Lord, please help me understand
    Why the rich man does the dancing
    and the poor man pays the band
    They're billing me for killing me

    September 19, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  24. Farrell, Houston, Tx

    If McCain wins this election we will know why an IQ test is not required to be a president because candidates rely upon the IQ of voters. My IQ has been tested and it's above average to know that Obama is the best choice. And guess what, I'm from the Buckeye State of Ohio.

    September 19, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  25. tony

    And Today–Bush put out a bi-partisan action for the economy with Reid and pelosi looking for help–
    McCain jumped right on it and there was OBAMA saying wait and see–
    Just like he did in Georgia with Russia–
    He just can't make a decisive decision-
    When he has a chance to hit a home Run-He forgets his bat–

    September 19, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13