September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. Linda K.

    What scares me is that these polls may be skewered to make it easier for the Republicans to steal the election again.

    Will we sit in front of our TVs and take it this time? I hope not.

    Print my comment, CNN.

    September 19, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  2. Independent for McCain

    Please do remember, whatever happening to the economy now is not entirely FAULT of Bush as president but also due to the CONGRESS which is controlled by the DEMOCRATS in the last 2 years. Why all blamed Bush, what about the congress controlled by Democrats? To say voting for Mcain is a 3rd term Bush, why not say, voting for Democrats and Obama is also 3rd term Bush?

    September 19, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  3. Texas democrat

    Once again, this is why people don't think their vote matters. We wonder why the turn out is so low, but how are those of us in "red" states supposed to care when we see this constantly. This is why we should get rid of the electoral college, it has outlived its usefulness.

    September 19, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  4. Jes Jørgensen

    I think this story is misrepresenting the polls somewhat. It is well-known that there is a time-lag between the state polls and national polls by from a few days to a week – in particular, when considering them in a electoral vote context. As the national polls have shown over the last few days the bounce of John McCain was not durable – so let us see if the state polls and thus the electoral college prediction does not get back to the level it was at before the convention.

    September 19, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  5. Paul Dobro

    If McCain holds a 2 point margin in Indiana, why is it lean McCain and a 1 point lead in Ohio is a toss up?

    Palin will sink the McCain ticket, already the main line conservitives have a bad taste in their mouth (read any of George Will pieces).

    As expected, McCain is reactionary and does not listen to any advice. Palin is one of may bad choices by John and they will continue. President of the US is not for 72 year old war heros and Govs from Alaska.

    Obama 08

    September 19, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  6. James F., New Orleans, LA

    CNN. Resolve this question once and for all: Do polling groups poll voters with only cell phones and do any of them poll newly registered voters?

    September 19, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  7. carl

    Obama and the dems are big, fat liers...The debates will tell the story, and if McCain and Palin can clearly expresse how a conversative message on the economy wins the day, the ticket should win. I want to point out to all the Obama supporters: His tax plan, if you acccept he will honor his tax decrease to 95% of Americans despite his voting record on taxes; he puts 500USD more per year in your pocket than McCain proosdes, but the differnece, Obama wants to increase taxes for big business and the wealty americans who use their money and tax decreases, generally, to create opportunity and jobs. Does 500USD a year change your life, make it any better? The dems. message dosn't cut it, GO CONSERVATIVE and McCain and Palin are the answer in this election on the economy. Open your eyes and hears, and learn more about real solutions and positions on serious issues!

    September 19, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  8. Ross in MD

    What a load of bull.

    Wisconsin is a toss-up? Michigan? But not Indiana? Sounds like CNN wants the election closer than it is.

    September 19, 2008 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  9. Republicans Hate America

    I will never accept a redneck as an American as much as they have ruined this country. We are taking it back from you inbreeds Nov. 4th

    September 19, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  10. Gabby's Mom

    Aware--You aren't that aware if you think McCain and Palin have demonstrated what you listed!!! Awar....huh! You are approaching senility.

    September 19, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  11. smartamericans

    Voters have lost their mind! It is true that Obama graduated from Harvard and I is a very smart person BUT has NO EXPERIENCE and QUESTIONABLE ACQUAINTANCES.

    I don't know about you but I wouldn't want a surgeon who has graduated from one of the top universities in the country to OPERATE ON ME UNLESS HE HAS A LOT OF EXPERIENCE.

    THERFORE, I DON'T WANT A PRESIDENT THAT IS GOING TO GET ON THE JOB TRAINING!!!

    GO MCCAIN!!!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  12. mitchell

    obama is the best president we may never have.......

    September 19, 2008 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  13. NYCVOTER

    Funny how polls mean nothing when it shows a positive for McCain and are all-telling when that for Obama. Liberals, go figure! I see you guys just keep spewing out the same vague generalizations as Obama......LOL I'll tell you one thing I am by no means a Bush fan, although he does take alot of unessacery heat in the media all the time, but McCain is not like him but if he was I'd rather have that than Barack "Jimmy Carter" Obama.

    McCain/Palin 08 Because I have a mind of my own and am not just one of the sheepish like followers who like hearing Politicians words and phrases and promises which bring out nice connotative feelings but are a load of you know what.

    September 19, 2008 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  14. Terry, Lakeland Florida

    How about some of you Obama staffers posting on here, tell your boss to release his hidden records.

    I'm talking about his school records, his bar exam, his state records, his client list from his legal days...it seems that you staffers keep talking about vetting but no will not allow Obama to be vetted....figures.

    September 19, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  15. jo mama

    Obama says the world is ending, the economy is desolate and according to Biden those small business owners should feel patriotic about the higher taxes they are going to have to pay under the Obama umbrella. Can you say layoffs? Great economic policy for a recession.

    September 19, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  16. GREG CHARLOTTE NC

    Wow Sarah was incredible on Hannity. I so ready to get to the polls and put these cry baby libs out of their misery

    September 19, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  17. Scott

    Just wait till we see the landslide for McCain in November. Obama is now drawing protesters at his campaign. Even the October surprise of dumping Biden for Clinton will not help the Dems. I look forward to the Republicans not only getting the white house, but also control of the senate and house. Look out change is coming.

    September 19, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  18. topspark

    polls are almost useless, Doesnt anyone remember that during the primairies Obama would be way ahead in the polls (even on the day of the acutal voting) and when the ballot polls closed he would win by a very small margin or not at all. The analyst on cnn even comment on how he polled better than gathered votes.

    I sure hope that holds true.

    September 19, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  19. Terry, Lakeland Florida

    How about some of you Obama staffers posting on here, tell your boss to release his hidden records.

    I'm talking about his school records, his bar exam, his state records, his client list from his legal days...it seems that you staffers keep talking about vetting but no will not allow Obama to be vetted....it figures, normal Dem thing...in fact when is bill release all those stolen records from the archive?

    September 19, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  20. Mike

    Aware are you aware that your ticket is a pack of liers?
    Speaking of integrity McCain has lost that to.Why because he is a LIER!!!

    September 19, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  21. john from PA

    why is PA not a toss up. All polls indicate a tie. It shows obamas inability to connect with the heartland.

    September 19, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  22. Chuck

    If you can move Missouri into McCain's column with a 5 point lead why can't you move Michigan into Obama's column after the latest poll gives Obama a 9 point lead?

    September 19, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  23. Chuck

    The only numbers that really matter. Electoral Votes.

    Funny, you'd think a third of a billion dollars would have bought Obama a few more states...

    September 19, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  24. miami hurricane

    The cell phone thing is a wash there are just as many Republicans as Democrats with cell phones. Two other things do not forget the Silent Majority; it's still alive and well, just because Republicans do not fill these blogs for McCain does not mean they are not there. Last thing the Beadley Factor is also alive and well and I am willing to bet it's going to bite Obama in the butt come Nov 4.

    September 19, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  25. Carol

    And the good news is .......... It's EXPERIENCE THAT WILL GET US THRU THIS – SEMI-DEPRESSION ! We need leaders that are NOT afraid of ACTION. It's not the Party – it's the PERSON. The action man, not the talkerman. We need someone who will STAND UP and ACT, SHAKE things up, PULL no PUNCHES, TAKE NO BULL – a HEADS WILL ROLL KIND of administration. One not afraid to admit when something he first says turns out to be other than and willing to chnange if it;s for the BETTER for the AMERICAN people. We have this kind of leader in Senator John S McCain and his running mate – Governor Sarah Palin.
    STAND UP AMERICA FOR NEW EXPERIENCED LEADERSHIP 2008

    September 19, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
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