September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.

CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. mitchell

    bad polls.

    September 19, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  2. Tim

    McCain wins by a good margin in November... America knows that Obama is all talk and no experience

    September 19, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  3. Michael Shea

    First of all, North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana and Florida should be toss-up states.

    I don't think any of these polls mean a thing till after the presidential and vice-presidential debates are behind us. The other factor is if more shoes fall in this economic crisis, the vote will continue to swing Obama's way.

    I believe that Obama has to put out ads that factually tell the public that McCain has historically supported a non regulated economy commencing with the Keating 5 Scandal.

    I would like to see a 527 investigate the fact that MCCain dumped his first wife to chase Cindy's millions to pay for his political campaigns.

    September 19, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  4. Joshua College Station Texas

    I can see that a big part of McCain wants to do what is right by Americans, and that a significant piece of Palin is loving motherliness.


    McCain's ambition, commitment to his Republican principles, and ties to dishonest campaign managers are bringing him down, and he and his campaign are spewing out lie after lie.


    Being a nice mommy doesn't make you a qualified vice-president candidate.

    September 19, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |

    Balack Obama is Jimmy Carter 30 years later. If you think the economy is tough now its nothing to the mess Obama would leave us in. If any of you remember the late 70's you would not vote for Balack

    September 19, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |

    Obama completely lost my vote...

    He is clearly not ready to Govern our Nation.

    September 19, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  7. Baze

    The color barrier is simply taller than the highest mountain. Hopefully Obama can climb it.


    September 19, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  8. Dave

    If my spouse were supoenaed to testify and refused, she would be in jail! I cannot believe that McCain-Palin can get any votes with the garbage that is going on. I also noticed that the Mavericks started mimicking Obama's call for change. I'm not convinced that McCain-Palin can even pull off a bluff to change in lieu of their behavior.

    September 19, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  9. Anonymous

    Poor US. Both candidates are the worst. Listening Obama, he seems the populists outsiders candidates that won elections in the Latin American countries the last 15 years..empty nice speeches and no record...nothing, nothing...Obama may have Latin linage (I am and I now the style) he speaks marvelously..only speaks...facts and figures: nothing to show except as "community organizer" .McCain...the old times ..we can expect nothing like a in bus stop at the Polar Pole. . furthermore, both VP, ...Badin is the less supported senator/ candidate...Pali, an hyper-outsider from the Middle-Age ( or before). And finally poor Democratic Party, it provided a painful example of no democracy not recognizing the rights of voters of two States and stealing the primary.Go Hillary Go!!!

    September 19, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  10. Ermi Tano

    You indicate that this is put together by the cnn political team,
    but if it includes precommited/biased? contributors such as
    Cafferty is it not inherently tainted and not credible or do you
    have neutral contributors that reflect the closeness of this
    exciting historical contest?

    P.S.Listen to Obama singing the Three Dog Night song
    Joy to the World.

    September 19, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  11. Franky

    "Biden, a proud University of Delaware alum, was clearly trying to rally his Division 1-AA team ahead of their match-up with Furman this weekend, but the comments couldn't have come at a worse time for faithful Buckeye fans who saw their team suffer a 35-3 trouncing at the hands of USC last weekend.

    The comments also come as polls show the race in Ohio could hardly be tighter: A CNN poll of polls in the Buckeye state shows Obama holding a slim 1 point lead there. Close enough, presumably, that enough angry OSU fans could just make the difference — at least that's what Republicans are hoping."

    LOL!!!! No offense but the Buckeyes do suck!! They have no quarterback, no RB, no receivers, etc! They're gonna lose the Big Ten if they play like that! LOL!!!!

    Go Fighting Illini!!!

    Get some!!!! LOL!!!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  12. beevee

    Obam campaign cannot allow any goof ups and slips in their campaigning from now on. They should remain focussed on issues not get distracted by what the foul mouthed Palin says about Obama. or they risk losing it all.

    September 19, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  13. Melly

    I don't read too much into this, MCCAIN was up by 5 points few weeks back and now is down by 4 points nationally. The polls will change signifcantly after the debates and other events....
    Let's enjoy the ride and debates and see the real result in November.

    I bet both campaigns do their own polling indepedently and focus their effort properly on the right states.

    I just love Obama's ads more and more.

    FOR EVERY NEGATIVE AD PRODUCED BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN, I am going to contribute to their campaign, and for every LIE AD PRODUCED BY MCCAIN CAMPAIGN, I will contribute double to Obama's campaign.


    September 19, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  14. Jann, Denver CO

    Just remember, the polls are only polling people with a LAN lines therefore they are missing out on talking to millions of young voters and minorities.

    The Obama campaign is doing a brilliant job of signing up new voters in every state. If you believe the polls and the Electoral College at this point in the game you'll be in for a huge surprise come Nov 4th.

    September 19, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |

    If you tax the rich, the rich will make the poor pay. Vote McCain/Palin
    PS Sarah Pailin is soooooooooo hot

    September 19, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  16. really

    the latest marist poll shows obama up in Michigan by 9 points...maybe cnn should put that one leaning blue if it's willing to call 5 points leaning red

    September 19, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  17. anonymous

    Who owns the press? I don't believe McCain is gaining ground.

    September 19, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  18. Shari, NY

    I recently heard that some polling machines are not up to par and you don't have to guess which neighbourhoods they are in. Be on guard!

    September 19, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  19. Karen - Missouri

    I have written several times that something fishy is going on in MISSOURI. In helping to make campaign calls I looked at my own file and it is marked "Strongly Republican". Yikes!!! I have NEVER been even Republican, never been asked. WHO marked me as strongly Republican when I've been STRONGLY OBAMA!

    The Republicans are somehow marking us as Republican when we are NOT!!!!! And I haven't been able to find out who is doing that or even how to get it unmarked.

    so do NOT believe polls, gang...they're corrupt and totally unreliable!!!!

    I'd say, Missouri needs to be moved back to tossup because we're being bamboozled.

    September 19, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  20. Griff

    Now just like John mcCain, I too have a new Goal! We don't stop, just because others see Failure... Some of us live in a different world; from failure CNN.. I put my faith in Sarah Palin, and the Go-Get-It; Young Folk. Wake em Up! Shake em Up!

    September 19, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  21. veronica

    palin is a 5 times mom though – she'll be great at changing mcCain's diaper.

    September 19, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |


    September 19, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  23. Matt

    Polls are nothing more than a media tool for keeping the election interesting and keeping you watching or reading or clicking links. Focus on the issues.

    September 19, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  24. Concerned Voter

    This map is completely slanted... Sorry for some of you but McCain's electoral standing is vastly better than this. In fact, Obama has a couple of states that he can turn around but it's not likely.

    This election is already over.

    September 19, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  25. Mindscape


    See, people don't realize that all polls are biased in favor of the Democrats.

    Real Americans are going realize that Obama is nothing more than an empty vessel, or empty suit, and that Biden is racist, plagarizing liberal.

    I can't wait to a McCain/Palin landslide this November!!!!!!

    McCain/Palin '08

    September 19, 2008 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
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