September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. when the economy is bad, the party in power loses

    Barack is still in the lead...and by the way...

    Indiana? Virginia? How can these possibly be so close? They used to be ruby red, you wouldn't even be talking about them in previous elections.

    the ball is in Johnny's court, and Sarah Baracuda won't be able to bail him out.

    September 19, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  2. arnold

    I keep hearing this B.S. about Obama reducing taxes. If the tax burden remains the same, where's the money come from? The 10% making over 250k? Not enough. Under Obama, count on new fee's for every government system like education, transportation, etc. Higher registration fee's, more tolls, registration fee for public schooling, higher taxes on energy, higher taxes on investment and inheritance and sales taxes. Don't be fooled, the government will get what they want from you, either in payroll taxes or what I described above.

    As for Wall Street, Public companies need to have Federal insurance to protect the people from their business decisions good or bad. The gov. needs to start a fund with this $ to support future bailouts and change the attitude of greed to morality.

    September 19, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  3. Open Your 3rd Eye

    HEY CNN:

    WHAT KIND OF MISLEADING, WACKO POLLS ARE YOU PUTTING OUT THERE TODAY?

    THIS IS LIKE THE 3RD ONE TODAY TO PLAY PIN-BALL WITH OUR BRAINS SOME MORE?

    OBAMA WON. ALL SAID AND DONE.

    September 19, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  4. Rob

    Hmm, look at the map. Looks like the normal, decent Americans aren't fooled by Obama and Biden and all of their hate speech and lies.

    September 19, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  5. hurriCAIN PALIN

    experience is always a factor and nobama doesnt have it, plus he

    didnt show 'good judgement' when he voted present many times

    on issues that affect the american people

    September 19, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  6. David of Florida

    How about you go ahead and move Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire over to McCain too. This election is going to fall on one state, Colorado, and that is only if Obama wins Pennsylvania.

    September 19, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  7. the other jd

    so Obama is up and Obama is down
    and McCain is down and McCain is up
    let's see how things shake out in November.

    The one question I have is why does Sarah Palin hate America? She supports the Alaska Seccession movement.

    September 19, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  8. Ric from NM

    Truth and reality doesn't matter! Keep up the good work!

    September 19, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  9. chelle

    As a Canadian, I have to say I just don't get how John McCain can even be close.... You have a man who purports to be a maverick but his record of the last 8 years proves otherwise, he outright lies (not stretches the truth, edits the truth) in his ads, his running mate is an extreme conservative, neither one has a clue about the world – SPAIN!!! RUSSIA!!! IRAN!!! SUNNI!! SHIA!! , neither one is economically knowledgeable, and they keep stealing the Democrats lines.... apparently Republicans have no ideas of their own?

    Why oh why would anyone, other than other extremists, vote for them? If the Rev Wright (who actually has some extremely wonderful speeches as well as invective ones) was controversial for Obama, why isn't Sarah Palin held up to the same standard? Her pastor's views, and her views, are just extreme.....

    September 19, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  10. Obama Knows How to Fix the Economy

    Nice try CNN.

    Please be responsible.

    If it is apparent that the whole country has lost faith in McCain's ability to lead the country, please don't report "gains" for McCain on your fabricated electoral map.

    The best thing for the country is not for your ratings to be high due to a "close race" that is a "dead heat".

    The best thing for the country is to honestly report the country's declining support for a man who flat out does not understand the economy.

    Come on.

    September 19, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  11. Brad

    I'm really kind of sick of these hour by hour, or even daily, or weekly polls. The only poll that matters is the one taken nationwide on November 4.

    September 19, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  12. Kayce

    It's nice to see CNN continuing its mad media info when it comes to the closeness of this race...Why isn't CNN showing Pennsylvania in Obama's column? There is no way that McCain is going to take the Keystone State. Further, Ohio and Michigan are going to go for Democrats..

    September 19, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  13. Tainopower

    just the beginning of the end for obama. Socialist liberal like obama will never going to win elections. And the democrats know it. Don’t throw your vote away vote for McCain

    September 19, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  14. Jill- IN

    I'm 59, moderate – Indiana resident and voting for Obama – the smart team.

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  15. W O W WO W

    H E ' S--–P O S I T I O N I N G--FO R---A -–R A C E---

    TO-–T H E--–W I R E--–B A R E L Y----E D G I N G-- O U T-

    O B A M A--B U T---R I G H T---T H E R E !

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  16. Rob

    Gee, and now all these people who were hootin and hollerin because some report said the false prophet was leading in polls now say that polls mean nothing.

    More proof that libs are flip-flop whiners. What's the first thing you do when you declare yourself a lib? Check your spine at the door.

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  17. Fed Up

    I find it unbelievable that this race can even be close. I'd like to think that the polls results in the past week show that people are waking up and getting past the "shiny object" effect of Caribou Barbie and starting to focus on the issues. We can only hope that voters will wake up from their Kool-Aid induced coma.

    Just say NO to Bush 44.

    GO Obama/Biden!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  18. MD in ND

    Time is on our side. McCain is digging himself into a deep hole full of lies and desperation. This guy is so out of touch. It's time to retire to one of his megahomes with Ms. Cindy.

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  19. Sheri

    McCain is a !!** idiot. Just what we need another one as if Bush isn't enough

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  20. Jean

    Someone get Obama some more hair dye... he's starting to look a lot more grey than when this race started.

    The real shame is that no matter who wins it's ultimately bad for America. Think of how divided we are as a country with a race this close for the White House when EVERYTHING should lean toward the Democrats.

    The losing side will not get over it quickly. There will be a lot of bad blood for quite a while.

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  21. J from DC

    How much does McCain still want to spend in Iraq again?

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  22. john

    This election shows that one thing is very important for all Americans whether you are a Democrat or Republican and that is to make sure you vote as it looks like every vote this year will make a diffence. That is what makes our country so great no matter how you feel about either canidate, if you don't vote then you are only hurting yourself.

    September 19, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  23. Palin hates Bullwinkle

    It will be a big win for Obama. Just wait!

    Obama 08

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  24. Jquen

    still waiting to get a poll call on my cell phone.
    Guess i'll be waiting awhile......

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  25. Teddy California

    Since there is a financial crisis, the polls right now will keep changing quite a bit from day to day. After the financial crisis is calmed down, and the debates begin, the polls will be more reasonable. There will be a debate next Friday that will be very important. I think a lot of people will watch the debates. This is still the Obama's race to lose. The financial crisis reminds Americans that they need some changes. If Americans feel comfortable with Obama (young and charismatic, but lack of experiences, and an African American who has different values from many of the swing voters), he will win. But if Americans can not just feel comfortable with Obama, they will choose McCain, a war hero, with values more allied with them. Yes he is a Republican, but these voters think he will be different from Bush.

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
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