September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.

CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. Bulldog

    Is John McCain actually saying he wants to fix the economic mess that he personally helped create. Phil Gramm is the author of the deregualtion acts for the financial sector and futures commodities that were both signed into law and McCain fully supported both. Those two acts are responsible for the high oil and gas prices and now the financial meltdown on Wall Street. Are you kidding me, who is John McCain? He is acting the Dr. Jeckel and Mr. Hyde.

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  2. Kiah G

    Um CNN thanks but no thanks on these polls.

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  3. Alice Brinkley

    You will eventually catch up with Carl Rove and show that McCain is in the lead for electoral college votes. I realize you hate to recognize that, CNN, since you are in the pocket for Obama.

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  4. Bob Indianapolis, IN

    Right! You folks are the "Dewey Wins!" kids, aren't you?

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  5. Chi4Obama

    I think that CNN is generating "artificial news" by throwing these poll numbers at us.

    1) All polls (both national and state), have a degree of sampling error.
    2) We are still somewhat early in the General Election. There have not even been formal debates yet.

    3) These polls do not reflect the number of newly registered voters.

    The only real poll that counts is in November:

    September 19, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  6. jim, kansas city MO

    These polls mean nothing.
    Kerry, Gore, Carter all were leading in polls, and what happened?


    September 19, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  7. Ed, Santa Fe, NM

    funny how the CNN map isn't really close to the NY Times electoral college map....

    your polls don't count for squat


    September 19, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  8. Al, Boston

    Then, CNN, by this logic you need to take away Indiana and North Carolina from the "Leans McCain" to the "Toss Up" status as you have shown recent polling to indicate the vote is close in those states as well. The reason NC isn't a toss up is frankly because of one bad poll that can't be correct in the fact that it has McCain with something like a 10 point lead.

    These polls, as you've also said, trend BEHIND the national polls...meaning that we are seeing last week's numbers this week, however, which means as the nation has trended Obama, these states will probably start to trend Obama.

    September 19, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  9. Joe ' Bama

    I think that CNN is trying to make this race appear closer than it really is...just like they did during the primaries. I am like the first poster. Whateva! See ya in November. Put yo' money where yo' vote is.

    September 19, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  10. phil

    Obama really has a chance in Florida CNN? suuuuurrrrreeeeeeee.

    September 19, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  11. Griff

    I started, now I will start again!! The Republicans chose their Leader! He's Qualification's is what they see in their Choice. This is Team-Work. This is how you win: "The Super-Bowl"... "Team-Work". That's Government! That's Executive thinking... Ask Bill Gates! A Little Business, that turned into a Giant; in 18yrs...

    September 19, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  12. inuk of the north

    What caused this shift?

    Was it the sight of Nancy Pelosi, in front of TV cameras, approving the bailout of Wall Street millionaires and billionaires?

    I suppose they can now afford to pay the extra taxes Bidens and Obama want.

    Let's see............the Dems help shift trillions from taxpayers into the pockets of the wealthy and then claim they want to help working Americans.

    Why didn't they give the money to regular Americans instead?

    Trillions of dollars would have bailed out a lot more working Americans than billionaires!

    September 19, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  13. Typical White Person

    I guess stuttering without your teleprompter has an impact after all...not to mention the absolutely vile race-baiting that he did with that Spanish language ad. The koolaide is wearing off. Heck, even folks in New Jersey are starting to come around.

    I guess us lowly bachelor degreed, gun-totin, bible-thumpin, rednecks are smarter and harder to fool than the upper-eastside, latto drinking, berkenstock wearing Harvard grads that are still foaming at the mouth over Sarah Palin having a spot on the ticket when Hillary was snubbed by their savior.

    Talk about your misplaced anger...luckily they all have standing appointments with their shrinks where they can get validation for the feelings of resentment and rage. Please, don't miss it this week!

    September 19, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  14. USA is bankrupted!

    Say it ain't so. America you're fired.

    September 19, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  15. Tony

    What would you expect from CNN?

    CNN/FOX separated at birth!

    September 19, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  16. Obama Knows How to Fix the Economy

    What about North Carolina and Indiana?

    Why are they still red?

    They are toss-ups at this point too!

    Come on CNN, don't let your desire for high ratings due to a "close" race cloud your ability to report the facts.

    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  17. Brooke in PA

    Um, why is my state blue on that map? McCain has the lead here in PA, it should be red. Joe Biden said if Obama wins PA, he'll win the White House. Well guess what, he's NOT going to win this state, period. All my HRC now BO folks in this area have been begging for help, meanwhile I've seen McCain/Palin signs go up every day.

    PA will go red. So by Biden's account, it's over.

    Looking forward to Nov. 4th when the "community organizer" and his thugs go bck to the South Side of Chicago.

    MCCAIN/PALIN 2008!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  18. Support the fight to free America

    Including all the traditional RED states becoming tose up. Have you checked lately in GA, Alabama, Indiana? Wonders will never end

    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  19. Independent but Leaning

    Florida isn't leaning McCain? Whatever. Florida is a toss up, but New Mexico isn't? MSNBC... I mean CNN, your bias is showing.

    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  20. fixthebroken

    Mike, Syracuse, NY,

    That is very sad if that is best news you heard for the entire week. I hope things pick up for you next week.

    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  21. Greg, Indiana

    Yeah! America is smartening up to fluff! McCain/Palin is the ticket to get us out of this mess, and our troops home safely.

    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  22. Latina for Obama (nj)

    Mike from Syracuse...YOU ARE SOOOO WRONG BABY...tHe ones leaving are mcsame and the bimbo!!

    We ,the american people, want a president with a BRAIN ,vision,ideas and character this time around....Have a nice day.


    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  23. Chi4Obama

    Don't worry,
    These numbers will change once again, after Joe Biden devours that Moose with lipstick in a one-sided debate.

    Each day, I look forward to hearing what new lies that she will spew out of her mouth.

    September 19, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  24. Independent

    Let see after the debates! Oh and did anybody hear McCain speech today? I mean what is wrong with the guy? He has fliped on everything this week. From AIG to the fundamentals of the economy oh and the alphabetical soup (he was against it yesterday) Today he adds MFI (or MIF I can't remember another reason why there are too much of these things) to it. I am trying hard to like the guy but he is INCOMPETENT!

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  25. Benjamin Columbus, OH

    Based on recent polling, North Carolina and Indiana should also be moved from "lean McCain" to "toss-up."

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
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