September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. gossip

    ABC News' Jennifer Parker reports:

    Bill Clinton has largely kept himself out of the public eye since his wife lost the Democratic primary to Barack Obama.

    However in a rare television interview tonight, the former president called Republican presidential candidate John McCain "a great man" and praised GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin as an "instinctively effective candidate."

    In an interview with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo, Clinton, who has tried to put to rest rumors of tensions between himself and Obama said, "I've never concealed my admiration and affection for Sen. McCain. I think he's a great man.

    A ringing endorsement? It wasn't.

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  2. brian

    Obama will win on nov.4. He is the next president of the USA. People will get up very early in the morning and vote for him.
    You think people are dumb to vote for McStupid and McLier?
    .

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  3. Kasparov

    Ok, here is a common line from the Obama-crazed fans when they hear a news like this:

    – Polls do not matter much because they go up and down
    – The Pollsters call landline only
    – CNN is biased etc

    This is kind of funny because when Obama was up by nine they were all cheering and saying the polls matter :)

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  4. TESAP:SAVANNAH, GA

    HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT THESE POLLS............. THE QUESTIONS ARE IF YOU KNEW OBAMA WAS CONNECTED TO TERRORIST WOULD YOU VOTE FOR HIM............ I HAVE HEARD FROM SEVERAL PEOPLE THAT THE QUESTIONS ARE MISLEADING........LIKE I SAID SCIENTIFICALLY SKEWED..................

    keep hearing this B.S. about Obama reducing taxes. If the tax burden remains the same, where's the money come from? The 10% making over 250k? Not enough. Under Obama, count on new fee's for every government system like education, transportation, etc. Higher registration fee's, more tolls, registration fee for public schooling, higher taxes on energy, higher taxes on investment and inheritance and sales taxes. Don't be fooled, the government will get what they want from you, either in payroll taxes or what I described above.

    AND I WOULD GLADLY PAY THOSE IS IF MEANT SAFER BRIDGES AND ROADS, SCHOOLS THAT WERE EFFECTIVE, AND FUNDING RESOURCES FOR CLEANER ENERGY....... WOULDN'T YOU???

    :)

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  5. Anton

    Blogs like these are 90% pro-Obama...and one has to wonder why...probably the average por-Obama knows how to use a computer and has the time to sit in front of a PC and blog away, while the average voter, who votes, doesn't have time to sit in front of a PC to blog...they are busy working to support their family, and probably are older and conservative. I wouldn't be surprised of an upset come November...

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  6. george from alaska

    Total baloney! There is no way this thing is even close now that the Republicans have almost thrown us into a Depression. The American people may be gullible, but we ain't total fools. Stop trying to fool us CNN. The party is over for McCain...turn out the lights!

    September 19, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  7. Donna

    chelle – canadians don't get to vote in US elections so your opinions don't count.

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  8. jimmy

    AMERICANS BEWARE: RUSSIA IS ON THE AGGRESSIVE TRACK.
    SUPPLYING IRAN WITH ADVANCED LONG RANGE MISSILES.
    SUPPLYING VENEZUELA WHOSE DICTATOR IS USING ITS OIL WEALTH TO GET A HUGE ARSENAL OF ALL KINDS OF WEAPONRY FROM RUSSIA ...RIGHT UNDER OUR NOSES.
    WHY WOULD HUGO CHAVEZ WANT TO ARM ITSELF TO THE TEETH WHEN THERE ARE NO THREATS TO ITS SOVEREIGNTY?
    CHAVEZ WILL BE ABLE TO INTIMIDATE ITS NEIGHBORS AND HOLD POWERFUL SWAY OVER ITS NEIGHBORS. THE POINT HERE IS : THESE HAPPENINGS ARE A SERIOUS THREAT TO OUR NATIONAL SECURITY AND PEACE IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST..WE ALL KNOW IRAN IS BENT ON BUILDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.. AMERICANS HAVE TO HAVE A NEW COMMANDER IN CHIEF WITH EXPERIENCE AND JUDGMENT TO FACE UP TO OUR ENEMIES AND WE KNOW WHO THEY ARE.
    NATO ALLIES ARE RELUCTANT AND CANNOT LEAD. ONLY OUR GREAT COUNTRY MUST LEAD AND OUR NEW PRESIDENT MUST BE JOHN MCCAIN.

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  9. nate

    Polls can be misleading..The only good they really serve is to motivate your base..1000 people polled will not give you an accurate portrait of what this country really thinks..Many people are simply not home, or just don't want to be bothered. So much depends on the outcome of "polls". My feeling is that McCain and Palin are playing well to middle America, where real votes will matter. At this point, Obama does not have the lead he needs in any poll to walk away with a victory. Obama needs to appeal to middle america, he or Joe Biden are not popular in many rural settings. This is fact.

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  10. WayneVT

    God help us if Palin/McSame wins. It would only reaffirm the belief held by the most of the rest of the world - that we truly are a bunch of idiots.

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  11. CJ in FL

    Such intelligent discourse by Obama supporters.

    On par with a houseplant...

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  12. Sarah.....and my last name isn't Palin!

    Mike, Syracuse NY September 19th, 2008 4:14 pm ET

    Best news I've heard this week. Bye, Bye, 'bama! Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.

    Mike, if this is the best news you've heard all week, you sure have low expectations for your candidate; He is still behind.

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  13. fella from Chicago

    Dems, you think this poll is skewed toward Senator McCain? Go to Rasmussen or electoral_vote.com and you'll really get nervous.

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  14. Cathy

    I don't care what the polls say.... All I know is that every single Obama supporter get out there and vote no matter what. Call your friends and family who also support Obama to be sure they get to polls on November 4th. Offer a ride or car pool....do whatever it takes to be sure that vote is cast for Obama/Biden.

    AND MOST IMPORTANTLY....VOTE EARLY!!!! The problems with the voting machines always seem to happen at the end of the day when most people vote after work. So if you can, go before work and get there early so you are sure your vote gets counted!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  15. ANGIE

    polls yawn yawn!! the only polls that will matter is NOV 4 2008!!

    September 19, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  16. Moses, Ca.

    I knew once Mccain start looking bad, the polls would change. Got to keep up the ratings.

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  17. Josh Syrop

    Clearly things are moving in Obama's direction and McCain's campaign is coming apart at the hinges. Why do you in the media insist on trying to make this thing seem closer than it is? What about moving Indiana and North Carolina out of the "lean McCain" column and into "toss-up" status since polls are now showing a dead-heat in both of those states? Let's be fair and honest. By no stretch of the imagination are things moving in McCain's direction.

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  18. dan

    It's the tale of the tortoise and the hare. Obama is fast and cool. McCain plods along – but he's authentic.

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  19. NoTrustInPolitics

    Polls are unreliable. It is inherant in their nature, as is the electoral map. Some people are really stupid to believe most of the s–t the McCain campaign comes out with, as well.

    I am an independant, not a democrat. Wanted to clear that up for the republican hate-squad.

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  20. Billy

    Give it time. Look for some big swings in the blue direction by this time next week.

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  21. Rich

    I fear that people may not be ready to vote for a black man, even if it means four more years.

    SIGH :(

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  22. will lamute

    You have to hear this lampoon of Barak Obama

    mike-acton.com

    Enjoy

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  23. -S-

    Wow. I am astounded by how rabid the Obama supporters are!

    I just fail to see what is so special about the guy.

    P.S. The Canadians need to butt out. Of course they are going to pull for the policies that are essentially socialism. I dated a Canadian guy once. He was the laziest I had ever met and couldn't even hold a job as a bag boy in a grocery store. Guess that happens when you expect your government to take care of you.

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  24. hurriCAIN PALIN

    the other jd – your an idiot

    September 19, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  25. Mr. Smith The Repbulican

    I'm not sure what the rest of Americans see but how can anyone vote for an UNFIT LYING THIEVING ABUSIVE POWER PIMP MY KIDS OUT MOM AND GRANDPA MCSAME...what America do they want...a Fresh new start with an honest Face to represent America or EIGHT MORE YEARS OF George Bush with Palin and McSame McCain...please even this Republican is switching to a winning team...Vote Obama!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13