September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. L

    Once you get out of the cities into rural area's then you get the real americans who will no doubt vote GOP. Sarah Palin has sealed that vote, Obama knew he needed it to win but sidelined Hillary, big mistake. As the titles say this race is neck and neck and i have no idea whose going to win (i certainly wouldnt be as cocky as you are all you obama supporters – there is going to be no landslide for obama if he wins, it will be by the skin of his teeth).

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  2. Lee, Chicago

    Why isn't Indiana a toss-up? Your Poll of Polls shows that to be a dead heat as well.

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  3. JusLaugh

    I still don't believe you, CNN. How many polls have you been right about this year, 1 or 2 out of 100?

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  4. Jeff

    Polls will fluctuate but people should pay attention to the percentage of undecideds in the poll. In the primaries the majority of these people went 'safe' and opted to not vote Obama. This is what is potentially alarming. Obama wanted this thing badly........

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  5. Helen, NY

    Nobody knows how CNN Polls always show different numbers and always in favor of Barack. I do not know when CNN pollsters will realize that Barack's support ios dwindling all across the board including here in NY and NJ. Barack, your days are numbered. You used American people's money for your campaign but you did everything wrong. You do not have the expertise to run our country. Period.

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  6. russ

    If Mctraitor should win on electoral votes and lose the popular vote by a couple of million, then maybe once and for all we could get rid of that anachronistic piece of crap called the electoral college, The founding fathers set that up because they didn't trust the american people's judgement. to select the president of the united states. It's about time we reversed that notion.

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  7. Christopher

    All of the recent polls taken in Pennsylvania have Senators McCain and Obama tied in that state. I wonder how long it takes for CNN to move Pennsylvania into the toss-up category?

    Christopher

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  8. Al in Alabama

    Why do people think that CNN is skewing their reporting to help McCain? Their reprting comes from the left, as does that of Fox from the right.

    Why do people post a response to a question other than the topic listed? Are y'all so hell-bent on being heard, that you can't limit your comments to the subject at hand?

    September 19, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  9. Another Republican for Obama

    Stupd american voters is, as stupid american voters does.

    I'll get what they deserve – more of their tax money given to rich people like me. Cool.

    September 19, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  10. Michelle, St. Louis, MO

    These polls do not include first time voters, like me. People are registering to vote democrat in droves. I'm 37 years old and I NEVER voted before. This is my first time and I've never been so excited. I hope Obama wins my state, Missouri.

    September 19, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  11. naomi, al

    WHY ARE THE POLLS SO CLOSE? AND CNN DO YOU POLL THE SAME PEOPLE DAY AFTER DAY? I HAVE NEVER BEEN POLLED SINCE THE CAMPAIGN STARTED. BUT YET I HAVE ALOT OF REPUBLICAN FRIENDS WHO SAY THEY CALL THEM ALL THE TIME. WHAT THE IS GOING ON HERE? AND CNN HELP GET THE POLLS FIXED IN THE KEY STAYS THAT SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW DON'T YOU THINK. I SEE A LOT OF TRICKERY HEADED TOWARDS THIS ELECTION. OBAMA ALL THE WAY AND I THINK MORE PEOPLE ARE FOR OBAMA THEN THE "POLLS" ARE LETTING ON.

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  12. WIllie W

    Paul, you know what, I don't even want to hear about any poll that puts McCain even a smidgen ahead! If you'd like to why, this is the reason.
    To even think that anyone in the US could possibly be voting for McSAME is more of a Nightmare than I can handle! Add that to the current state of the economy which McSame and the Bush Gang brought upon Americans and I can only ascertain that these people supporting McCain are either being paid very well or they need serious psychological help! I mean to vote for the Twin that put their Nation in the worst economic disaster ever seen in decades! How could anyone explainn that rationally?

    I doubt I'm the only one who would appreciate CNN not telling us about even the slightest lead he may have on Sept. 19th! Why don't you save the poll numbers and just surprise us on Nov. 4th!

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  13. Seen it all before

    Gee CNN, you got the Obamabots all hot and bothered with your last story of the election being close in Indiana and Ohio. What are you trying to do now with this story – bring a dose of reality back to the contest? This election is more a repeat of 2004 – The Rasmussen polls which has been spot on for the last 2 presidential elections had Bush/Kerry at 49% – 48% on this day 4 years ago. We all know how that election came out. Today they have McCain/Obama at 48% – 48%. The Obama supports are enthusiasic but the momentum in the electoral college continues to slowly improve for McCain.

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  14. Phil Newton in Murphy, Oregon

    Per Five Thirty Eight blog the electoral votes look like this:

    Obama-----– 284.8

    McCain ------ 253.2

    RCP average now Obama +1.9 nationally.

    Yes we can!

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  15. Kevin

    Listen! Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States. He's going to win this election in a landslide. Voter registration in the new battleground states are overwhelmigly going to go Democrat this year.

    Obama/biden 08

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  16. Chuck

    Today, Friday, September 19, McCain actually said:
    "YESTERDAY, I CALLED FOR THE RESIGNATION OF
    CHRISTOPHER COX, THE SEC CHAIRMAN....."

    NO, NO, NO, MCCAIN SAID:
    "IF I'D BE PRESIDENT, I WOULD FIRE HIM"....

    Now, everyone knows the difference between the two terms. How often can McCain continue lying and/or keep changing what he said yesterday. One can no longer believe what McCain says anymore.

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  17. DB

    McCain bounce still has to filter through. Obama only resumed the lead, as shown by national polls, early this week. By mid next week, we will definitely see a greater slant to Obama. Just watch.

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  18. Cackles511

    The Show Me State, is showing me that they just don't get and so do all the other States that back McShame...... I guess they like living with no jobs or financial security.............How many people in this country don't read what's out there, or listen to the news programs........They only believe what they hear from others or what they see in distorted emails....This election should not be about how you are registered, it's about looking at and listening to all the facts and making a decision based on what will be better for you and your family now and into the future...........I guess some people are just too ignorant and racist to see that a change is needed....................McShame and gal pal Sarah scare the death out of me............they are not going to change anything, it will be more of the last 8 years.........

    September 19, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  19. Texas Annie

    I can not believe that after the last eight years of Republican tyranny and mismanagement, that anyone with a brain would even remotely consider sending anyone from this same inept party back to the White House and Congress. (I guess the exceptions would be all the Bush & Cheney buddies who are now mega-mega millionaires thanks to their corrupt ways in Washington.)

    People, people, people.... wake up. If you think the Republicans are going to better this country with the next administration, you only need to sit down and look at your retirement package. We are in serious financial trouble for a multitude of reasons. We need to send the Republican ticket packing. I'm not saying all Democrats are great (send Pelosi packing too) but I think we definitely stand a better chance at improving our country with them right now.

    Please, wake up! Take your vote seriously.

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  20. RS in AZ

    I don't think we need polls to tell us that Texas will vote for Palin because they like her big hair.

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  21. Uncle Fester

    Rob September 19th, 2008 4:18 pm ET

    More proof that libs are flip-flop whiners. What's the first thing you do when you declare yourself a lib? Check your spine at the door.

    Right. I am one lib that has enough of a spine to tell you that you are full of crap. You and your ilk have brought this country to it's knees and guess who get's to pay for it. All of us-and that would include "libs". The Republicans have screwed this country up one side and down the other, and I for one have had enough of it.
    You are the need the one that needs to grow something.

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  22. Liz

    Its about time that CNN made that change. Now, how about Florida & New Mexico? I saw that McCain was leading by 6 points in Florida and I am not too sure about New Mexico but CNN is showing it different. This was shown on MSNBC online on Monday. CNN check that out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  23. Tony

    I guess we can add Wisconsin, Indiana,and Ohio to the list of the most f'd up staets in America, along with Florida and Texas.

    How anyone could serioulsy consider voting for McCain, and especially since he chose Palin, is insane. Yet Americans are the most apathetic, ignorant, whiny, unaware and irresponsible people on the planet.

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  24. Janet, Senior W/F

    The Truth in Nov 4, 2008 will rise above Lies Deception Distractions and the Eight years of Bush/McCain and Cheney/Palin will be OFF THE ICE!

    As we say in HOCKEY!

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  25. tony

    If the polls show Indiana as a virtual toss-up why isn't this reflected on the electoral map which still shows it leaning to McCain?

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
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