September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. Sage

    would you believe a word i said if every word i said was a lie?

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  2. I said Thanks, but No Thanks to another 4 years of g.o.p. corruption, arrogance and incompetence

    Only one week until the first debate. Polls should be pretty static until then.

    September 19, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  3. Support the fight to free America from GOP

    Did anyone read Fact Check today ??
    McLiar's ad about energy was just discredited. He said Obama completely opposes nuclear energy. Obama states again in the acceptance speech in Denver his surpport for nuclear power for America.
    GOP Bloggers infor McLiar that the ad is false and let him apologise to Obama again like he did on the Lipstick on the pig remark....discredited by the ladies on the view.

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  4. Brandon - Gahanna, Ohio

    I agree with some of the others I've seen post here - I'm an IT Professional, so I run into a lot of different people in my day to day travels here in Ohio. I have met 2 people in the last 2 months that are McCain supporters. Everyone else can't stand him, including myself. I'm tired of his lies, distortion, and blaming others when things don't go his way (Daily Scandal Palin is worse than he is on that front). I truly feel that Americans are smart enough to elect the better candidate this time around and that the last two terms have taught us something about how important it is to elect the right candidate.

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  5. Gail

    CNN you are horrible. Obama has 51% in WI and you put it in "toss up". Obama's up in PA, in IN, tied in OH – according to polls anyway, which I don't believe.

    Just trying to stir the pot for ratings. I'm done with CNN

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  6. Quinn - Houston, Texas

    It doesn't matter who is "ahead" in the electoral vote count on September 19th. What matters is what happens on November 4th.

    Barack Obama has SEVERAL paths he can take to get to 270.
    McCain has only a FEW ways to do it.

    Advantage Obama / Biden 08!

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  7. NUNNYA

    WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOTHING BUT A CELLPHONE?

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  8. Vic of New York

    "Stupid is as Stupid does." – It seems Forest Gump had more sense than the voters of Wisconsin and other swings states willing to cut their noses to spite their faces!

    Unfortunately most of those folks are either caught up in "social politics" or simply too stupid to understand how Repulbicans are pulling the wool over their eyes.

    That's unfortunate, because under McCain they will continue to loose their houses, and as the spread between the wealthy (smart Republicans) and the have nots (stupid Republicans) increases they can continue to loose buying power while their couterparts make off with the Kitchen.

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  9. Mary

    I am saddened by the state our country is in financially. I am still undecided on my vote for president. My only hope is we will get a true reaction from our candidates on a plan and solution for the dire condition of our economy and nation. This is the time for one of the candidates to rise the office they seek and be a true leader.

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  10. Tony

    Anyone here ever been POLLED?

    I know I haven't!

    September 19, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  11. Luis in Miami

    I though that Obama could do it without the base of the party... what's all the wining about... America will loose at the end courtesy of the DNC and Howard Dean.... Thanks DOC!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  12. Denise

    I think it is nice Obama is ahead in the national polls, but I do not trust pollsters. The GOP had a poll used to say Obama was anti-Jewish. A Gallup ollster said they tweaked to polls to make the race appear closer than it is.

    September 19, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  13. Joe

    All I can do is laugh!! Yesterday there was a national poll that was on this ticker with Obama ahead a couple of points and all his fans were so happy with their comments. And now today this is released and they are all whining, complaining, crying and saying that polls don't matter. This is so comical. Obama fans are pathetic. You people are just like your Savior Obama....you can't have it both ways.

    September 19, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  14. C

    Who in the heck are they polling Conservatives? 4 more years of pain for all of you!

    September 19, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  15. Republican for Obama (nyc)

    My heart sank a little bit. What is wrong with America? :( Obama is the best choice for the presidency. I thought that was obvious by now. McCain will do everything in his power to win. He lies during the his rally speeches, he lies in ads, he lies to the American people. Do ou not think he won't lie to us when he is in office with that "I can see Russia from Alaska" goon? I am so ashamed. :(

    September 19, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  16. Don

    Dem`s, go to school get educated. All I see is uneducated comments with nothing but rage. Rage = no education!

    September 19, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  17. RBH

    If I had a poll in on hand and John McCain's leadership ability in the other hand, I could buy a cup of coffee. Oh wait, no I would have NOTHING. John McCain complains about the tenor of the campaign and several reports state he is displeased with the dishonesty of his own ads. If he can not control his campaign staff and their "Rovian" attacks that he fell victim to, how will he ever lead a nation?

    September 19, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  18. Dave

    I live in Florida and was born in Michigan, and feel very confident that both will be McCain.

    To put it in real terms, economy is major issue in both and offshore drilling would be a major boon for FL! In MI, real estate and economy are pathetic, my home sold 12 years ago is now worth less today!

    Ohio, PA, WI, MN, watch those northern states,

    September 19, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  19. Tony

    WAY TO GO MR. SMITH!

    Like I've always said, Americans are the most apathetic, ignorant, whiny, unaware and irresponsible people on the planet.

    September 19, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  20. CNNpleasepostmycomment

    My heart sank a little bit. What is wrong with America? Obama is the best choice for the presidency. I thought that was obvious by now. McCain will do everything in his power to win. He lies during the his rally speeches, he lies in ads, he lies to the American people. Do ou not think he won't lie to us when he is in office with that "I can see Russia from Alaska" goon? I am so ashamed.

    September 19, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  21. Open Your 3rd Eye

    EVEN CANADIANS KNOW OBAMA SHOULD BE PRESIDENT.

    WOW, THAT'S JUST PLAIN SHAMEFUL.

    AMERICA LET THAT MAN SHINE LIKE HE IS INTENDED.

    STOP MAKING LAME EXCUSES TO VOTE FOR MCSAME.

    AND FOR GOD SAKES STOP THE RACISM.

    GET OVER IT.

    September 19, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  22. Anna

    Missouri belongs to Obama!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  23. Proud to be American

    the truth will make America free .... free of the Repugs ... Obama is still ahead and that is what counts!

    Obama and Biden 2008

    September 19, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  24. Zion

    Go Obama. Hey, you were somehow down and out just a week or two ago. Lets put McCain and Palin to rest.

    A Black Republican for Obama

    September 19, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  25. Rob

    No, what we don't need is some failed community organizer with crooked friends, rascist ministers, former terrorist co-workers (and good friends), no proven track record (130 present votes and spending most of your first term as senator dreaming about being president don't count), who happens to have a famous talk show host infatuated with him.

    Obama gonna fix the economy, make us a safer country, keep us protected, keep us the superpower that we are? You believe that and I've got some land in Arkansas to sell you. Oh, wait, I won't be able to because if Obama becomes president anyone who actually works for a living will be taxed incredibly so we can support those who don't want to work and illegal aliens (Obama's voting base)

    September 19, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
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