September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. Rodger

    Obama has registered 20,000,000 new voters....Obama will win by 15-20% of the popular vote. The poles fail to show new voters, first time voters and people who only use cell phones....this is the Obama base. The workers, minorities and women voters will remind people of FDR. McCain reminds us of Herbert Hoover!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  2. Roland

    The Electoral Map update which counts will be completed by 5 November. Until then, these polls mean little. I think both campaigns agree on that. Polls are 24 hr news channel's way to fill the clock when the stock market is not sinking, hurricanes not destroying, or celebrities aren't toking.

    September 19, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  3. Does Obama Palin Comparison?

    Is anyone else getting sick of Obama oportunistic posing…It's Monday Morning Quarterbacking at it's best!

    These "press conferences", where he comes out wearing a dark suit, surrounded by his "advisers", and then promptly tries to take credit for everything that happened a few minutes ago (in the REAL world). He says that he's been working on his financial plan for "several year"…Really? Then let's see it!!!

    THIS GUY IS A FRESHMAN SENATOR!!! No one that has real authority is listening to what he has to say. He looks like a kid trying to look older than he is…

    It's kinda sad that Obama and his followers are all secretly hoping for this country's financial ruin, just so he can get into the White House.

    September 19, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  4. chris

    How come a 5-point lead in Missouri tilts it to "leaning McCain", but a 5-point lead in New Hampshire is still a toss-up?

    It doesn't have to be a horse race every time, CNN. We'll still read the news, even if you're not twisting numbers to present a tight race. Thanks anyway.

    September 19, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  5. linda from South Dakota

    RE: rich,,, its time to think with our heads,, not our past,, if you were blind and heard these two canidates,, which one would you vote for?????,if you could only hear ,, it would matter what they said, not what they looked like,,,,, ITs time someone wakes up and listens to whats being said,, mccain flip-flops like crazy,,, he only follows what obama says only to turn it around for his own advantage(mccain),,, my vote is and always has been for obama,, his ideas are good and sincere,,, mccain is justlike bush,, big talk, but when it comes down to it,, he cant do jack chit,,,, remember,, mccain voted with bush on 90% of the issues,, palin is under a major investigation,, plus much more between these two,, never would i vote for someone who cant make his own decisions and has a partner that refuses to cooperate in a investigation,,, theres trouble there big time,, obama/biden.08 and beyond

    September 19, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  6. Rick

    An earlier poster said the following:

    Maybe we shouldn't be wasting trillions of Dollars on spreading democracy. It's obvious that people are too stupid to be given the right to vote.

    I wholeheartedly agree with him and it is astonishing indeed to see how many people who say they will vote for Obama.

    September 19, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  7. fire

    Palin speaks in tongues... enough said.

    September 19, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  8. CNNpleasepostmycomment

    My heart sank a little bit. What is wrong with America? Obama is the best choice for the presidency. I thought that was obvious by now. McCain will do everything in his power to win. He lies during his rally speeches, he lies in his tv ads, he lies to the American people. (Use fact check.org and pay attention to CNN..sheesh) Do you not think he won't lie to us when he is in office with that "I can see Russia from Alaska" goon? I am so ashamed. Is the American public that racist? That gullible? :(

    September 19, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  9. vperry

    I am scared that Obama is a fascist. Let's not forget his 20 years of devotion to Rev. Wright.

    September 19, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  10. jimmy

    LET US NOT LET OUR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS DISTRACT US FROM
    THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT -THE PRESIDENCY . WE HAVE OVERCOME THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF THE 1930'S THANKS TO AMERICAN HARD WORK AND SACRIFICE.. WE TODAY AS AMERICANS CAN DO NO LESS FOR OUR GREAT COUNTRY.. LETS CUT DOWN ON OUR USES OF ELECTRICITY, GAS , FUEL . DO CARPOOLING, DO GORCERY SHOPPING ONCE A WEEK WFTER CHURCH, OR AFTER WORK . MAKE A RUNNING LIST OF ALL YOUR NEEDS FOR AN ENTIRE WEEK. SAVE COUPONS.. LET US NOT GIVE MORE MONEY TO OPEC WHICH IS NO FRIEND OF OUR COUNTRY. LET US STOP MAKING ETHANOL AND USE NATURAL GAS. CORN SHOULD BE USED FOR FOOD. EUROPE AND THE US SHOULD SELL CORN TO THE ARABS ON AN EXCHANGE BASIS OF ONE BARREL OF CRON FOR A BARREL OF THEIR OIL.

    September 19, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  11. Richard

    Telephone polls are not accurate because of thousands of young people have given up land lines for cell phones.

    September 19, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  12. Kelby from Houston, TX

    I would like to take the time to reitterate the fact that YOUR POLLS MEAN NOTHING. I don't know who these people are polling and I don't know what kinds of questions that they ask. I do know that Obama will be the next President of The United States of America. Ya dig?
    The only reason I speak with such confidence is because the support for Obama is tangible, it's real. I talk to different people on a daily basis campaigning for Obama. It's like preaching to the choir. Everyone I have spoken to (which numbers in the hundreds now) decided to vote for Obama last year. The race for POTUS was determined in Democratic Primaries.
    People realize it's not only the person but mostly the party and the platform of ideals they propose and the GOP is in the crapper. Over the past 8 years they have been given unprecedented power and access and have proven that they CANNOT GOVERN!

    September 19, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  13. (zero)bama

    I've seen messages in this thread written by liberals who are ashamed to be called liberals, so they call themselves "independents."

    How can you truly be independent if you only vote for Democrats?

    September 19, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  14. Jon

    Hello CNN “fact check” the latest available polling on Oregon is from Rasmussen and it puts Obama at +4 not +10.

    September 19, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  15. naomi, al

    AMERICA WAKE UP!! Check your voting places now, don't wait until NOv 4th what America is watching with their "EYES WIDE OPEN" Is that if you really want OBAMA to get in office, your going to have to damm near fight like it was life or death. The Republicans are so dirty and they know that McCain is slipping away. Obama can't fight this alone, we all have to make sure everyone is able to vote fairly. You just right this down, I'm telling you its going to be a mess NOV4th. there already reporting 10 key states that polls don't even work nor do they have enough paper ballots, but CNN you waste time BS with Pailn and her husband, get the voting commissioner on CNN Larry King and make him accountable or her about these Polls. Time is running out. CNN get on this. Keeping them honest is BS we need these polls regulated and people need to be able to VOTE. I'm pissed off about it!! Michiagan people are not even allowed to register if under there house that was foreclosed. Get with Americans Get with it. There some much fraud going on and Nov 4th is around the corner.!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  16. Roger

    Who are these pollsters talking to? They certainly aren't talking to any of the 36 million voters for Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton in the primaries. They haven't taken into account the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of new voters who have been signed up. I can't imagine this country would allow another Republican dominated administration to screw us all as they have the past 8 years. Think America!!

    Obama for America!!

    September 19, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  17. Bayou Joe

    This is where it counts Obamabots. The electoral college rules, McCain will wini all of the States... Goodbye Obama.

    September 19, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  18. Donny

    At what point do we start calling it the "Palin -Mccain ticket"

    September 19, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  19. Gabby's Mom

    Why doesn't anyone ask Sarah Palin why she would participate in a movement for Alaska to secede from the country?!!!! I want to hear her squirm out of that one! She is a snake and doesn't even want to be a part of this country. McCain picked her as a running mate because he wants to leave Cindy for her like he let his 1st wife for Cindy. This team isn't to be trusted they are both dishonest and wouldn't know loyalty if it smacked them both in the face!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  20. Election Watcher

    This race will be close. Interesting how when polls show Obama is ahead, his supporters agree that the polls are right, but when he's behind they cry foul and say polls mean nothing. That shouldn't surprise anyone, though. This is the group that won the nomination, but refused to be graciuos victors, instead taunting and ridiculing Clinton supporters. it's no wonder so many are voting for McCain.

    September 19, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  21. Doreen J.

    Certainly Americans can't be stupid enough to elect yet another Republican administration?!

    Some VP candidate who follows right in Bush's footsteps by refusing to answer subpoenas – geez, do people ever learn? And then McCain who seems to struggle to remember where Spain is – God!

    September 19, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  22. charminsays

    Polls–smolls. The only thing that matters is Nov 4th. We can't invest too much worry in these intermediary events because we still have many days left until the election in addition to several debates. The polls can swing all they want, what really matters is what happens on Nov 4th.

    September 19, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  23. ABDI NUR

    ONE STATE DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING.
    BARACK WILL WIN THIS ELECTION, IF COLOR DOESN'T PLAY AROW IN HERE.
    YOU OLD MCCAIN JUST GO TO ARIZONA AND FIGURE OUT WHICH HOUSE YOU WILL SEEP THAT NIGHT.

    September 19, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  24. milo

    Interesting headline, considering that Obama is still ahead.

    September 19, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  25. debbie

    Nice to see this. I have been praying everyday that NObama doesnt win. Maybe things are turning for the good in my beloved country!

    September 19, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
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