September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. McCain the LIAR

    Oh pppplease CNN. Poll are moving the other direction. Your story is at least a week old.

    September 19, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  2. PUMA 4 HILL

    Here is MO PUMA is working real hard to move independents and democrats to McCain... simply because we know now that McCain is the best of the two... Hillary was first, McCain second – Obama NEVER!!!

    Check out CAUCUSCHEATING.COM

    September 19, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  3. Turnabout is Fair Play

    Mike, Syracuse NY September 19th, 2008 4:14 pm ET

    Best news I've heard this week. Bye, Bye, 'bama! Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.
    -------------------------------

    Uh huh, yeah, whatever, when you and the other ignorant maggots in here who hate on Obama wake up November 5th to hear the announcement of President Obama, I'll be laughing and thinking about your anger, shock, and rage that he won.

    September 19, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  4. FactCheck

    This race is all but over. The only chance McCain has to win anything is to win 3 out of Ohio, Florida and Michigan and that is just not going to happen. Obama is up by 5 in Michigan and Ohio and Florida are a dead tie.

    September 19, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  5. Megan

    How come when the polls show that Obama is in the lead all the Dems say what a good tool the polls are but when the race turns in McCain’s favor they all scream that they where never polled and that the system is some how messed up. and you are right the real test will be the 4th of November. Can we all say hi President McCain and Vice President Palin.

    September 19, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  6. Tired of mud slinging

    Food for thought:

    Obama is a lawyer. Biden is a lawyer. Most of Obama's friends and his wife are lawyers. Lawyers will do what ever it takes to win a case, no matter whether their clients are guilty or innocent! How many honest lawyers do you know?

    Obama says he will raise taxes only on the rich? As a lawyer, he knows that most rich people have lots of lawyers working for them. Lawyers know how to find and use those magical little loop holes to get around paying taxes!
    This is why Hollywood elite's Love Obama!

    How many honest lawyers do you know?

    And if you say you're a lawyer, and don't use loop holes, then you are definately a lawyer, and and expert on LYING! LOL

    September 19, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  7. boybees

    Here's the bottom line: to win the White House, McCain has to win Florida AND Virginia AND Ohio AND Indiana AND Wisconsin. If Obama takes just ONE of those FIVE states, it's over.

    September 19, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  8. snnn

    You have to live in florida to know, McCain wins I bet you

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  9. Cara

    CNN will be looking might STUPID on election night. "We did not expect this turnout!" even though registrations are up across the nation and people are paying intense attention. Duh!!

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  10. vincent

    I have no respect for a woman who would throw her children under the bus for political gain. (So much for "Family Values." I have even less respect for a woman and her husband who would travel all over the United States and not take care of the children they brought into the world.

    Fine parenting, fine values. No thank you, those are values I can do without.

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  11. Wisdom

    Linda from South Dakota:

    "if you could only hear ,, it would matter what they said, not what they looked like,,,,, ITs time someone wakes up and listens to whats being said,"

    Agree... statements like
    Typical white people
    Cling to religion and guns
    Above my paygrade
    Tire pressure will solve our energy needs
    Calling women sweetie or refering to them as a pig
    Attacking someones children
    Attending a church that preaches hatred
    Won't see troops without press
    Can't speak without a teleprompter... eh, ah, oh, yea, um, ah , eh, um
    Running a campaign is executive experience

    I agree... and am not voting for Obama

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  12. Brian Curley

    Interesting... CNN changes Wisconsin from 'leans Obama' to toss up when Wisconsin becomes a statistical tie, but doesn't change Indiana from 'leans McCain' when the same thing happens there (according to CNN's own story!)

    Subjective much?

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  13. Rodger

    CNN is doing a good job at making Democrats uneasy, it will only serve to make them work harded to see McCain get's less than 40% of the votes!

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  14. FactCheck

    It's kinda sad that Obama and his followers are all secretly hoping for this country's financial ruin, just so he can get into the White House.
    -----–

    Actually, it's much sadder that McCain and his followers have already caused so much ruin for this country, just so that can get and stay in the White House.

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  15. Nando, Florida

    I can't wait till Nov 4th America will be a awe of the turnout for OBAMA !!!!!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  16. Jenny

    That's because only a handful of us in MO are actually paying attention to what is going on. Most of the REDNECKS that live here are going to vote based on guns nad how purtty Palin is. It is unfortunate that the world has to see MO as the redneck state we are! People in MO wonder why we are always made fun of and looked at in a redneck way, well MO Heres you sign!

    OBAMA/BIDEN '08

    September 19, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  17. PUMA 4 HILL

    Missouri hasn't chosen the loser since the 50's....

    PUMA DEMOCRATS for McCain!!!

    Clinton – 2012

    September 19, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  18. IcedTee63

    What? How is this possibly right? The Obama Campaign was up by about 7 this morning on another poll!

    September 19, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  19. Cheryl

    Bottom line is that things are pretty much tied, which (sadly) given the bigot factor means Obama is three or four points behind where he needs to be. I have confidence, though, that public opinion will break his way after he chews up and spits out Old Man McLiar in the debate a week from tonight.

    September 19, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  20. Chibeardan

    I think CNN may be a little hasty in moving the polls. The change in state polling lags the change in national polling by a few weeks. There are polling bounces that follow the conventions hstorically, making them less accurate predictions of the presidential race. Any move due to a convention bounce poll has a very good chance of moving back quickly.

    That said, I haven't seen any poll with Obama leading in MO, so I don't know why that was a tossup anyway. I think the Wisconsin move is due to the post convention bounce, so I wouldn't be too worried that Obama will have to put a lot of money into it.

    September 19, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  21. emily

    They need to put Indiana, West Virginia, and North Carolina as "toss up"! CNN, you have had polls that shows we're having a close race in these states, so why do you guys still leave them as "lean McCain"?? And Minnesota and Wisconsin are going for Obama, not toss-up!

    Polls are out there saying that and You can't just base it on just one poll! Polls of Indiana even indicate that it's tough race there, so put it on toss-up now because that's not fair!

    And Montana should be toss-up! Check it out! It's a dead heat there! and North Dakota should be "lean McCain" because the race is tightening there too.. CNN, you're not doing this right or fair!

    September 19, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  22. Roger from CA

    <>

    I adamantly disagree! If anything, in this election cycle, the state polls tend to lag the national results, and there is no reason to believe that randomized national polling would over-sample any of the "safe" states. I've seen lots of cross-tabs on national polls showing–if anything–heavier sampling in the south and midwest.

    September 19, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  23. Judy from PA

    Living in PA, I have met very few people who have bought into Obama's speeches. Around here, people want substance, and we haven't see much in Barack. Most people I meet are so tired of it, they are either not voting or voting for McCain. That doesn't bode well for Obama. I honestly don't think PA is 'leaning Obama".

    September 19, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  24. Sascha

    It's so obvious that the corporate media are promoting their McBush Republican extremists wherever, whenever and however they can.

    I can't believe the American people are so stupid that in real and unbiased "polls", Barack Obama wouldn't be at least twenty points ahead by now.

    September 19, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  25. Todd

    Oh yeah! Watch out for McCain and Palin! At least it looks like America will vote for someone who can actually MAKE a decision instead of just talking about them. Deal with it Dems!

    September 19, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
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