September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.
CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. Tiffany

    We go through this every Friday.

    September 19, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  2. Michael

    People, don't be afraid of the polls.
    We, the young people, aren't bothering with such useless statistics.
    When it matters, we will turn up! McCain and his people can enjoy the lies and deceptions while they last, but they can't fool us.

    Obama is our generation's Kennedy. Our parents taught us well: "You can't teach an old dog, new tricks"

    September 19, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  3. yo

    MO has always been Likely GOP.
    For real electoral mapping go to 538.com

    September 19, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  4. I am Canadian

    Why is it that all the fact checks are about what Mccain and Palin say? Gee I wonder, maybe because they don't have a plan so they have to resort to more lies, deceits, and political bashing to win the voters. Mccain also says that Obama is using the recent Market failures for his political campaign, but isn't the economy a major issue in your country? I think it's something to sit down and consider during this presidential race and to come up with a viable solution instead of making rash decisions. Gee, who's known for making rash decisions again? Don't be fooled by the lies and deceit America, please don't be fooled for a third time.

    September 19, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  5. John69

    Bush = McCain
    More of the same!!!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  6. besol

    The news is trying to keep this a tight race as it make them money.

    They will be held accountable for their false polls.

    Look at what happened to survey usa after they said their polls showed Hillary up by 14 in Indiana.

    CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, you will be held accountable for your coverage

    The only true source of news right now is Jim lehrer

    September 19, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  7. No Clever Name

    It's interesting the things I've learned from reading these postings:

    1. If you don't vote for Obama it is strictly because of your racism.
    2. If you don't vote for Obama you can't possibly own a cell phone.

    Who knew???

    September 19, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  8. Chris

    Fascinating to see how you OBummer fans praise polls, CNN, etc. when they have Obama leading... and then talk about how inaccurate they are when he's losing. Grow up.

    September 19, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  9. sal

    Obama is right where him and Biden would like to be. They did not want to build momentum too early. Now the trend is on Obama Biden side. The polls are for the Media.

    Obama Biden have won, and won big

    the plan is unfolding day by day and mcCain and his supporter are clinging to polls, While obama is going door to door.

    With this weeks wallstreet crash proves, it was like a nail in the c...
    to a fail pollicy that McCain voted for 90% of the time.

    This week showed a reckless follower, not a leader, not a maverick, just a wanna be.

    The game is over.

    obama Biden have won

    After the flop on wallstreet , who would dare to say they would vote for more of the same. LOL, LOL

    We have won

    Palin is fizzing out. It may be her voice or her message. She is not a Hillary.

    September 19, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  10. Jenny B.

    If Obama does not win and the country does not change, I will be selling t-shirts saying: Don't blame me, I voted for Obama/Biden! Hopefully I can make enough money to move to Canada where people are actually smart enough to see past lies!

    September 19, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  11. Mercedes

    Oh no, this polling every single day is making me dizzy and nauseaus. Can someone tell these media they must stop it because we are all about had it with this nonsense. On Nov. 4 is when the real deal will take place.

    September 19, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  12. Theresa - Minneapolis

    I love Tony. You are spot on, Dude...

    September 19, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  13. Independent for McCain

    We have not taken into race as an issue in the election. I believed this will affect the election too.

    September 19, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  14. doug in New Mexico

    Just be careful what you wish for. Look at those who voted for Bush and what did we get? We got poorer and the rich got richer. We got a war we can't get rid of. Lots of people lost their homes and now many are losing their savings and retirements. Come on folks pay attention to the issues.

    September 19, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  15. Ron

    CNN seems more interested in keeping the numbers looking close. 100% of the polls show Obama winning Wisconsin!!! Fivethirtyeight.com shows an 80% chance Obama wins Wisconsin. Missouri was never a likely Obama win anyway. This is a misleading and ridiiculous article. Check out fivethirtyeight.com and see why CNN appears to be the last to know of shifts in voting.

    September 19, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  16. James

    Donny: At what point do we start calling it the "Palin -Mccain ticket"

    Palin has already done that herself! She's ready, all right. Just waiting for the old guy to croak.

    September 19, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  17. Canadian for Obama!

    It amazes me that John McCain is even this close...however, here in Canada we're keeping the faith that Americans will make the right and smart decision in November and vote for the Obama/Biden team. McCcain/Palin seem like a desperate team, lying their way through this campaign to inflate themselves...the World is awaiting and remains united with the US in HOPE for our future and the future of our children.

    ~Obama/Biden all the way!~

    September 19, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  18. Independent from Arizona

    It seems that our choice is: one man who is very smart, but not very experienced, vs. a man who is experienced, but not very smart.

    September 19, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  19. mitchell

    great! elect the dipstick!

    September 19, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  20. Obama Supporter

    What took you so long....MSNBC's Chuck Todd's map made this prediction eons ago!!

    September 19, 2008 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  21. Huh?

    I find it interesting that all the Obama spam-bots cite polls as Obama's strength in your recent Indiana/Ohio article, but now in this one they don't mean anything.

    Well... which is it?

    September 19, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  22. Brian B

    People, we all will be shocked, Shocked! come election day. I am a Obama supporter, but he has no chance. He will lose in a landslide because the majority in america just isn't ready to elect a black man.

    September 19, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  23. Joe PA

    We don't need no stinking polls

    September 19, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  24. Sick of the BS!

    Everywhere I go, and I travel a lot, I see Obama bumper stickers, t-shirts, and buttons. No one wears a Mccain button or t-shirt, except the people the republicans hand tickets out to at the "town hall" meetings. The networks are inflating the polls to make the election interesting. This race is not close at all. Obama will wiln at least 300 electoral votes...a landslide.

    September 19, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  25. Brenda

    jenny b I agree with you 100% I will go to canada too if mcnuts wins!!!

    September 19, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
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