October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update.
Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update.

(CNN) – Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. ben

    Keep them coming,,,....
    Obama all the way....
    want a President smarter than me!!

    Laaaaaaaaaaaaand slide!!

    October 1, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  2. deborah, WV

    Things are looking better for Americans hoping for CHANGE, but we need to be aware there are more swift boats waiting and dirty tricks around the bend. We need to keep donating and working for Obama.

    This is coming from an ex-Republician

    October 1, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  3. Duke

    McCain is a Repug, he will never balance the budget. He will give you a tax cut though and borrow the rest from China. Hope you don't mind your kids and grandkids being slaves to the Chinese. Trickle down has always been about smoke and mirrors. Enjoy your life on the backs of your descendents....lucky you. Very honorable.

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  4. Jayne ain't no girl

    The trends should continue towards Obama, as long as we can stay on the issues.

    McCain will try to divert us to some stupid social issue as soon as he possibly can, but I think the country has had enough.

    If you are happy with the way things are going, if you are happy with the way things are, if you think that we are on the right track, then by all means, vote for McCain.

    If you are not happy with the way things are going and you honestly believe that we need to go in a different direction, in this country, then you cannot put the same party in power.

    It really is that simple.

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  5. Kevin from Seattle

    It's still early but lets keep the momentum going. Go Obama/Biden team!!

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  6. Irma in North Carolina

    Boy this great news. Maybe america is finally waking up. And i guess as Sarah(would say) this is a task from God. Lets hope and pray he does the biggest task of all is too take these two out of the election for once and all.

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  7. LB

    Palin is an insult to all women. Does she think we are dumb, that we don't know those cheap tricks she tries to play to sway men over to her side. She can't even name one newspaper she has read and she want to hold the 2nd and maybe the 1st highest office in America. Women, please, we will have our chance, but not with Palin, if you elect her you will set this country back for women for 20 years, because people will look back and say, we let the women have their say and look what they put in office, never again!!! Right now we have "have a beer with George" and Six Pack Palin. One in the same. Two unintelligent people

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  8. Turnabout is fair play

    Ah yes! Keep that trend going! Sing REAL soon fat lady, REAL soon! McCain made himself look like an idiot galloping up to Washington to save the day and KNOWING he could do nothing to help, he just made himself look stupid and now it's costing him, lol! Obama didn't go until he was requested to appear because, unlike McStain, he did not want to inject politics into the delicate vote, but McFullDepends did not care and now he pays. When Failin Palin gets hammered and school by the Bidenmaster, this will be a final nail in McCryptKeeper's coffin. O-BAM-A! O-BAM-A!

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  9. pat huntington ny

    while this obama supporter is relieved with these polls, I do not pretend to think its in the bag! This is going to be close, and remember the voting machines will break, and get rigged...remember the Chad! Don't let Diebold decide the election with its rigged for republicans machines!

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  10. J. Dean

    GIVEN THE AGE OF JOHN McCAIN, AT 72 YEARS OLD AND S. PALIN'S NOT BEING READY TO HANDLE ANY CRISIS THAT WE MAY ENCOUNTER, THIS RACE IS ALL OVER.
    THE LAST 8 YEARS OF DISASTER BROUGHT UPON US BY GEORGE BUSH SHOULD NOT BE REPEATED. WE THE PEOPLE OF THIS GREAT NATION, DO NOT DESERVE ADDITIONAL 4 OR MORE YEARS OF DISASTER.
    AMERICA IS BLEEDING ECONOMICALLY, MILITARILY, SOCIALLY AND PHYSICALLY.
    GEROGE BUSH DID ENOUGH DAMAGES TO OUR COUNTRY THAT COMING GENERATIONS, GENERATIONS WITH THE LETTER (S) WILL NEVER FORGET IT.

    October 1, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  11. CJG

    Thank you Sarah Palin!!

    October 1, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  12. Anti-AARP

    I keep hearing from McCain supporters about Obama's lack of experience being an issue. The reality is the presidency is more about judgment and the ability to adapt to difficult situations than experience. Let's look at McCain's record. In all of those years of experience, outside of traveling to various war-torn countries, what has he really done? He would make an excellent secretary of state but frankly he hasn't seemed to express a real lasting interest in anything here at home (aside from his 13 cars and 8+ homes). Then let's turn to judgment; which person voted for a war that didn't make sense at the time and makes even less sense today? Time and again, we hear from Mr. McCain how we "can't lose the war". My question is two fold, (1) if we shouldn't have been there to begin with, why are we there now and (2) what does victory actually mean? McCain simply can't answer these questions and lacked the judgment to make the right call in the first place. Experience did a lot here, didn't it. Obama-Biden in 2008!

    October 1, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  13. Florida independent voter

    Just goes to show that this financial disaster we are all in can't afford to go down the drain for four more years. McCain may be a good man, but the country is in dire straits now and over the next few years. Have to go with what makes sense, and that is Obama.

    October 1, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  14. Barbara, FL

    McCain doesn't UNDERSTAND that people are suffering. We want a president with some real answers, not platitudes.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 1, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  15. Ratgurl

    Okay, this map changes daily. It's frustrating. Can we keep the electoral map hidden 'til 1 week prior to the election?

    Let's focus on the issues!!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  16. duh...

    Cant wait till they burn down Sarah "Punchline" Palin after the investigation.... Lets not elect more overtly corrupt leaders?
    no way
    no how
    no McCnasty
    no Punchline Palin

    Colorado 08 Obama/ Biden

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  17. GARY

    From observing many past elections, polls only show where the candiates stand so far in the battle for the White House. In reality, polls are not really reliable. The real poll will be on Nov. 4th and the result will be Obama. Democrats have registered so many more voters than Republicans and have a huge staff to get out the vote. And don't forget that a lot of people with cellphones are not included in this poll.....so the numbers should be bigger i nfavor of Dems. We will all see in Nov.......Go BAMA!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  18. Lee-- Dallas, TX

    Now is not the time for a happy dance, [though you might be able to spare a few seconds] we have to get to work and make sure people are registered to vote. Oct. 4 is the deadline for many states, so let get a move on it.

    Our country cannot afford/take/handle/endure four more of the last eight years.

    Obama/Biden '08

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  19. Demi

    Yes!
    Ken John Mccain and Barbie Sarah Palin will go back to where they were.

    THANK YOU AMERICA!

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  20. Tony

    I WONDER WHICH LEGACY BUSH PREFERS:

    ...A LYING PRESIDENT WHO TOOK AMERICA INTO AN UNNECESSARY WAR

    OR FOR

    BANKRUPTING AMERICA!

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  21. gl

    Don't hate you right wing nuts, just go away al ready please. Time is up for you right wing nuts and you rnutting tickey McNut/sMcStupid.

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  22. God Bless America

    This economic meltdown is exposing the Republicans greed and their lack of concern for the MAJORITY OF NON-RICH in this country for over the last 8 years. America CANNOT WITHSTAND McBUSH!

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  23. John

    Yes!! Finally we can become socialist! Maybe even communist if were lucky! Obama will turn the streets into candy and the world will love us. I cant wait.

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  24. Patrick, Fairfield, CA

    Most Americans believe Republicans caused this entire mess of the U.S. economy. Many can easily conclude that it was McCain who threw his name right in the mix of specific blame with his gamble to jump start his campaign by saying he had suspended it to go to DC to help with the bailout last week. Everyone knows, certainly this frequent commenter, that McCain's plan was a stunt to stimulate votes – it has clearly backfired, because there is no bailout bill vote in place. Americans are upset with Congress and now John McCain and the polls are starting to show it!

    October 1, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  25. Dana, OK

    America is waking up-we're Americans and WE CAN DO BETTER.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
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