October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update.
Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update.

(CNN) – Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. TJ

    I just think it's both sad and hilarious, as well as fitting and unsurprising, that McCain supporters are counting on racism to salvage his bid for the Presidency. But Will is right, we Obama supporters need to remain dilligent till the very end, to make sure that the these ruthless, heartless right-wingers who think that they are entitled to win every election don't cheat and steal their way into the White House by tampering with voting machines, dropping legitimate voters off of voter rolls, and trashing ballots that they don't like to win the election like they did in both 2004 and 2000.

    October 1, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  2. New England Yankee

    Life.....There is no rewind button. We need to take this opportunity and continue to work until Barack Obama is in the White House. Make no mistake, everything possible to stop him will happen. When you vote, find another registered voter and take him/her with you. Encourage your family and friends to take the time and go to the polls on Nov. 4th.
    Obama/Biden '08/'12!

    October 1, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  3. frayedcat

    Yay ! Hoorah for integrity, honesty, clarity, thought, reading, writing and hope!

    October 1, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  4. Sleepless in MI

    I hope so. I hope it's none of that racial stuff where they say they will vote for Obama because they can't bear to tell a pollster they wouldn't vote for an African American. Our country needs a president with international appeal. The Bubba Six Pack president just didn't help us build good alliances.

    October 1, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  5. Dan

    The large La Crosse, WI crowd was extremely pleased with Obama today. It's rare when a speech can actually bring tears of American pride. That's right, Obama instilled a pride I have not seen since shortly after 9/11.

    The state papers will cover this over the next couple days. Wisconsin polls tend to show the effects in about 2 weeks.
    Watch for Obama to lock up Wisconsin by mid-October.

    October 1, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  6. drew

    Seriously, it frightens me to see the pro-Obama posts on here. They all sound ridiculously uneducated. I hope that these are middle-schoolers voting, because I would be terrified to live in a country where the average voter posts things like:
    "mccain is craping out"
    "STAYFOCUSEDBARACK"
    "go obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    Here I thought Obama's main support was with elites. Turns out his fan-base is elitist snobs and uneducated drones who don't know an inexperienced demagogue when they see one.

    When did America become so easy to brainwash?

    October 1, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  7. MCCRYPT "I WOULD RATHER LOSE AN ELECTION THAN CHANGE MY MIND'!

    Wish granted!

    October 1, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  8. Independent

    Go Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Oh what a happy, happy day! I pray it stays this way till we get to the white house!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  9. It's A Wonderful World

    Come on everyone. We have to stay strong for Barack and Joe. We had a fantastic primary and convention, now we have to produce. We have to have a historic election that will be earth shattering.

    Get out there and work, work, work. Take anyone you can to the polls. Parents, don't forget your teenagers. Teenagers, don't forget your parents.

    America deserves it.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 1, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  10. Republican Mom for Obama

    We all know that McCain will put a stunt out of his top hat before Nov. 4th. Do not believe his lies, fact-check everything he says!
    Do not stop campaiging.
    Do not stop volunteering.
    Do not stop donating.
    Volunteer to call battleground states.
    Do your parts as Americans! I really believe in Obama and he needs our support and our vote. Let's unite and make this happen. It doesn't matter what party you belong to! Republicans, Democrats and Independents: UNITE!

    October 1, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  11. Diing

    It is a really good news to America. Strong economy means power in terms of military and the likes. For the sack of this nation, republicans ought to put the country first by voting for Obama. Without strong economy, it will be hard to fight two wars much less supporting our allies. Ask the Soviets.

    October 1, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  12. Frank

    "The Black-Man's controle of a Super-Power… You will have to live with this, Pure-Stupidity. Remember I warned you!!! Adolf Hitler,had nothing on this Illusion."

    Will a McCain supporter please step forward and denounce this man? For God's sake, I know people tend to believe what they're told when they're young, but at this point, it no longer makes sense to me.

    Another point- Just because John McCain tells you something doesn't mean that it's completely true. Just because Barack Obama tells you something doesn't mean it's completely true. Do your own research, listen to both sides of the argument, and then do a bit of critical thinking. Blind, ignorant, brainwashed partisanship will be the death of democracy in the United States.

    October 1, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  13. TangoDancer

    This is good news for once, but as many others have already noted – let's not get complacent yet and think that this is over. We still have to win this thing for Obama, and that means getting everyone possible to vote for him. The GOP will not go down without a protracted and dirty fight. So be it. I've made some headway recently in convincing some conservatives to vote for one of the other third party candidates. While I'd prefer a vote for BHO, I'll be satisfied with a few less votes for McCain. I'm in Ohio and I still have my doubts that we can take this state. The traditions of this sub-culture don't favor a progressive minded person like Mr. Obama. No point in getting down about it. We still have to fight hard and work for every vote. Good luck to all of the other BHO supporters in the battleground states. We're in this together.

    October 1, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  14. Noah

    Montana, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana should be yellow as well. Wisconsin should be leaning Obama and Texas should be leaning McCain.

    I personally think we’ll see a huge surprise in November when Obama takes Texas, Montana and Indiana as McCain takes Michigan, Washington and Maine.

    This map is full of it

    October 1, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  15. Hillary Democrat

    YEAH!!! It's true OBAMA will Win. Muslims for Barack Hussein Obama. You are our savior and can't wait to break bread in our new house ..the White House. GO OBAMA... ALL THE WAY!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  16. Independent, white female !

    now let's keep going all the way to NOv4. I think it was vey imprtant for all of the voters to see what Palin brought to the ticket, which is nothing but insecurity. Mccain made a bad judgement call, and I am sure he is regretting it. Palin di great with teleprompters and speeches, but she turned out to be one dunmb beuaty queen. Mccain is compulsive and thinks of votes only. Americans are smarter than that and now we're taking our elections and our white house and our economy and futures much more seriously.

    October 1, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  17. Turnabout is fair play

    NoTrustInPolitics October 1st, 2008 4:07 pm ET

    As I always say, polls and everything based on them are unreliable.
    --------------------------------

    Whatever, you would be blowing your trumpet and spouting bull for McStain if the polls were going the other way.

    October 1, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  18. Had enough!

    BRIDGE & ROAD TO NOWHERE October 1st, 2008 4:06 pm ET

    THANK YOU GOD…I AM GRATEFUL YOU ARE WORKING AT NOT LEAVING THE USA WITH MCCAIN & PALIN FOR THE NEXT 4 YRS.
    -------

    That's right... God selected Obama for this job... and you wonder why we say Obama has a cult.

    Typical Nut -job!

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  19. Republicans= Me First Country Last

    I will predict that NC WILL BE BLUE!

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  20. Jann in Denver

    WE ARE IN THE HOME STRETCH! OBAMA/BIDEN

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  21. dem 4 McCain/Palin

    And to think went the market crisis happened a couple days ago
    Obama just said call me if you need me... He is a joke and had no idea what to do so he did nothing nor offered to go to Washington like McCain did. Obama has no backbone and cannot handle pressure. But then he has no politic experience....Duh!

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  22. Barack The Vote People

    I love it. I just hope McCain and Sarah will keep lying their heads off.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  23. Sharon Kitchen

    Go Obama/Biden '08 .....Time for the mind change.

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  24. Liz

    I can only hope the swing states can get past their stereotypical views of color and vote for what is RIGHT! We need intelligent, thought out well managed, moral, fair government that works for US, not for big oil and big insurance. Obama/Biden have shown consistantly that they are caring and intelligent people who think of more than themselves. They understand the complexities of the world and are the only ones who can regain the respect of the rest of the world.

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  25. Terry, Dallas Texas

    The Republicans are in denial after 8 years of getting their way. They simply cannot believe that this close to the election Obama is so far
    ahead not only in the national polls but in the electorial college vote count. Oh and for those of you who now favor dispensing with the EC I want to know how you felt in 2000 when GWB lost the popular vote but got elected thanks to it. Sorry Fox crowd. Your time is up but thanks for playing.

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
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