October 2nd, 2008
08:42 PM ET
10 years ago

CNN Poll of Polls: A dead heat in Virginia

McCain leads by a single point in Virginia.

McCain leads by a single point in Virginia.

(CNN) - A new CNN Poll of Polls suggests that the battle for Virginia and its 13 electoral votes is too close to call.

In the latest average of the most recent state polls in Virginia, compiled Thursday, 48 percent of likely voters in the commonwealth are backing Barack Obama for president, with 47 percent supporting John McCain. Five percent of those questioned are undecided.

This edition of the Poll of Polls consists of the Virginia Poll of polls CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll (September 28-30), a Mason Dixon survey (September 29-October 1) and an American Research Group poll (September 27-29).

“There are a few reasons why the race in Virginia is so tight,” says CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “First, the state is changing rapidly. The Democratic-leaning suburbs of Washington D.C. are one of the fastest-growing parts of the state. Virginia’s also becoming more ethnically and racially diverse — another trend which favors the Democrats. Finally, Virginia’s not immune from the country’s economic problems. As the Wall Street meltdown has taken center stage the last couple of weeks, the desire for change in Virginia and elsewhere has grown more intense. That plays right into Obama’s hands.”

Democrats have made major gains in statewide elections in Virginia this decade, winning the 2001 and 2005 gubernatorial races and the 2006 senate seat battle, and they are favored in this year's Senate contest.

But it's a different story in the race for the White House: No Democratic presidential candidate was won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. This time around, though, the Obama campaign thinks it can turn this once solidly-red state blue.

"If a Republican nominee hasn’t nailed down Virginia’s 13 electoral votes with less than five weeks to go, he’s in serious trouble. It will be extremely tough for McCain to reach 270 electoral votes if Virginia’s not in his column on Election Day,” says Silverleib.

Filed under: Virginia
soundoff (56 Responses)
  1. ERP

    Call it he AWAKENING of America. Palin-McCain would be much worse than four more years of the same...much worse that four more years of Bush....it would be a nightmare.

    October 2, 2008 08:30 pm at 8:30 pm |
  2. Lance

    Though Obama is leading in this state, I still believe he has quite a bit of work to do in order to win this state. Virgina is a very stong Republican state.

    October 2, 2008 08:30 pm at 8:30 pm |
  3. blue in a red state

    Oh come on , my mom suffered through childbirth and I would not vote for her for pres.

    October 2, 2008 08:30 pm at 8:30 pm |
  4. ed

    All due respect: look inside the numbers of the polls nationally and by state. Look at the demographic segmentation close. That will tell you where the race is ... If you rely and place your bets on published results, you might be sorely disappointed.

    October 2, 2008 08:31 pm at 8:31 pm |
  5. Hillary Supporter for McCain/Palin

    keep dreaming – come election day we are voting for McCain & Palin!!

    October 2, 2008 08:32 pm at 8:32 pm |
  6. R, Ohio

    No Hillary = No Obama October 2nd, 2008 8:26 pm ET

    So, let me say this again. I have changed my party affiliation from Democrat to Independent. Writing-in Hillary Clinton will not count because she did not declare her candidacy. So, I am voting for McCain – if for nothing else, then he suffered for this country. Obama has not. End of discussion.

    You are petty and clueless. Hillary will survive regardless of who gets in the office. If you were voting for Hillary based on the issues, then stand up and vote for the right candidate....Obama. To vote for McCain based on your emotional feelings is not only STUPID but dangerous. You and the rest of America will suffer based on your haphazard decision making. Voting for McCain is a waste of a vote.

    October 2, 2008 08:32 pm at 8:32 pm |
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