October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Central Florida

    Great news, but no time for complacency. Let's GOTV...get out the vote!

    Obama/Biden '08
    Yes We Can!

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |



    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  3. Baze

    And this is a shock?

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  4. Blue Bear

    Funny when Reps are loosing they say the polls are not accurate but when they are ahead they say they are. Face the facts...Dems are winning this year.

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  5. Tim

    NEWS FLASH...John McCain won the November 4th election, hands down...

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  6. Glenn

    Do the moderators allow someone to post that is not drinking the Obama Cool-Aide? Just wondering. Socialism is dangerous and they will not allow me to post. McCain by 2% in the end. Americans will not close the curtain on the booth and vote for a Socialist....will never happen.

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  7. Regine Arlington, Virginia-Communist

    People keep saying don't believe the polls, but here in Virginia, 7-11 stores have campaign displays and all the Obama things are sold out and all the McCain things are still there. People are laughing about it, they're saying you can't give the McCain stuff away.
    McCains brother shouldn't have called the hard working, tax paying citizens of Virginia COMMUNIST, because many of us support Senator Obama.
    We know it's our God given right to support who we want too. Our Governor is a Democrat and one Senator(Webb) soon to be two Senators(Warner) and no new state law about no campaign attire to the polls on election day will change that.

    This state is true blue!!!
    Virginia is for lovers not fighters
    Obama/Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  8. Darryl Miller

    It is sad that the Anchor on CNN at 4:00 did not defend the truth about Senator Obama when a white female caller called in saying that she don't know why Senator Obama don't solute the American flag?
    He put the question to a Senator John McCain supporter who choose to let the false rumor continue to be spread.. This is a sad day day for CNN..


    October 15, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  9. Women 4 Obama

    YES WE CAN! Go Obama/Biden! We are turning Florida blue, too!!! VOTE EARLY OR BY MAIL!

    OBAMA-BIDEN 08/12

    October 15, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  10. sabrina01

    Go Democrates

    October 15, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  11. Biff

    B....E....A....U.....T.....I.....F.....U.....L !!!!!


    yes.. i'm in Arizona... BUT SO WHAT !!!!!!!

    (i've never typed this before.... but... )
    YES....WE.....CAN !!
    OBAMA '08


    October 15, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  12. TX Independent for Obama

    Just vote, baby! We must follow through on November 4. Don't accept any excuses for not voting.

    October 15, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  13. I'm an idiot

    Yippee! I am so happy because I am a moron.

    October 15, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  14. Samantha, NE

    The country is dipping her toe in a balmy blue bubble bath. I think she'll love the warm waters of real patriotic waves, after 8 long years of a Republican drought.

    October 15, 2008 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  15. hello

    I never trusted Rose parrot.
    You don't trust a millionaire because they became rich by walking over poor people.
    Same thing with John McCain he is rich his wife is running his campaign and he wanted to keep his tax break.
    A rich person does not show respect to poor people and that’s why they use language like 'I AM GOING TO WHIP HIM'

    October 15, 2008 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  16. Hillary Democrat

    OBAMA has won. No need to vote. Everyone can stay at home and watch the election result. No need to vote. ..OBAMA HAS WON!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  17. FL for Obama

    YES WE CAN! Go Obama/Biden!!!!! We are turning Florida blue, too!!! VOTE EARLY OR BY MAIL!

    OBAMA/BIDEN 08/12

    October 15, 2008 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  18. G.Mitch

    Ican,t believe you people want to vote for someone who is wanting to do whealth distribution, his policy are socialists at the least, when are you people gonna wake up. Obama's campaign people have already said his policy's are gonna cost so much we'll have to borrow(probably from China) Tax the very people who create jobs is really a bad idea. Hey Tim good idea, take time off to spend gas on picking people up to vote at the poles who have been illegally registered by the acorn nut jobs...I work hard for my money and live within my means.. maybe some of you ought to try that,instead of wanting some wealthy person,s money

    October 15, 2008 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  19. Terri, Atlanta

    Come on fellow Georgian's – let's turn our state BLUE!

    Go Barack – win that last debate – we are all pulling for you!

    October 15, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  20. Steven

    Woohoo!!!!! Come on Virginia!
    Obama/Biden 2008= JOBS, Baby, JOBS!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  21. Mike, Syracuse NY

    We are witnessing the Fall of America. People want change so bad, they are willing to elact a baffoon with no experience to get it.

    October 15, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  22. Trudie, VA

    Come on North Carolina, don't let us down. Go bold and go big for Barack Obama.

    Take it from a Virginian–the water's fine.

    October 15, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  23. Jay

    Its starting to look like Barack and Hillary in the primaries results all over again.

    Go Barack!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  24. No McCain

    McCain secured his loss in this election by

    1) Choosing to put Politic before Country: Choosing Palin as VP to gain politically on the Hillary -Obama rift rather than choosing someone that knows how to run this country

    2) Supporting Bush's failed policies. He is trying to come up with some items NOW that he wants us to believe that he is not another Bush term.... but sorry too late too little McCain

    3) What I love about America is that you are allowed to make your choices as you wish....but u pay for it if you make the wrong choices.....GO AMERICA

    OBAMA 4 President

    October 15, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
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