October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. JayInNewHampshire

    Every time Bush comes on TV the market tanks. Please go home to Texas and don't speak anymore your killing us!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  2. Gene

    Yep... enough people are finally starting to realize that ideas and competence is more important than party affiliation.

    October 15, 2008 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  3. mike in central va

    THAAAAAATS RIGHT!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  4. Ed, Santa Fe, NM

    OBAMA-BIDEN '08

    CHANE WE WANT

    October 15, 2008 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  5. Tim

    We will not take anything for granted. We will continue to hit the streets for Obama/Biden. This is not over by a long shot. I recommend that everyone that can, take a day of vacation on Nov 4th and provide transportation to the polls for those who don have transportation. Senator Obama, North Carolina is behind you all the way!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  6. Kim, Charlotte, NC

    Yeah! Please remember to push Obama name on the ballot, and then vote straight Democrat.

    Yeah!

    October 15, 2008 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
  7. Ray from CA

    OBAMA 08

    October 15, 2008 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
  8. McCain is TOAST!

    Oh SNAP!

    It's time for McCain to perform another gimmick and suspend his campaign until Cheney recovers from his Frankenstein shock treatment.

    October 15, 2008 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
  9. Linda from Carrollton

    We need change and Obama provides that change. McCain took his slow time coming up with an economic plan. That just shows you he will do everything that Bush did. Palin can't take to anyone other than Fox so I'd rather have people I believe in.

    October 15, 2008 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  10. Lisa

    Let's keep it up. Get out there every night you can and work to help Obama and Biden win this election. We can't stop working now. It is time for change and it is looking good right now, but we can't stop now. Talk to your neighbors, talk to your friends, talk to people in the grocery store, remind them that voting is the important thing not just saying they will but actually voting.

    Obama/Biden 08 YEAH!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  11. Shari, NY

    Keep on swinging, Obama!

    By the way what’s going on? Nancy Reagan falls and suffers a fracture; Cheney’s has recurring heart problems; Jesse Jackson is suffering from verbal incontinence and turning green (with envy?), Trump makes a sort of ex post-facto statement regarding Bush; McCain – (poor man – I’ll let him be!). Yikes – the golden years are here without a 401K!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  12. CapoCastillo

    I think the entire country, even the hardcore right, see McCain is totally defensive at this point. mcCain knows he has to take away some blue to win. Right now he's not even holding on to his Red. Maybe spending a week and a half on personal attacks wasn't such a good idea. Obama has run a truly 21st century campaign, and McCain is still coppying plays from Bush's 2004 playbook. It's pretty clear who represents the future, and who represents the past.

    October 15, 2008 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  13. Loving the new map, and Jesse Jackson is an idiot.

    I think GA should become a toss up, it's neck and neck down here in early voting.

    October 15, 2008 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  14. Pro

    People are tired of losing their money, while John McCain talks about giving more money to the wealthy and his good ole boy network!

    October 15, 2008 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  15. Sebastian, Baton Rouge, LA

    Good news. Let's get the voting done and get this sorry Republican administration and their lackluster candidate out of the way for progress.

    October 15, 2008 04:04 pm at 4:04 pm |
  16. greenfish

    Nose to the grindstone until November 4th!!

    Obama/Biden '08

    October 15, 2008 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  17. G

    I still think it is to early to call, but if this stands until Nov 4 than Obama should be really happy that he could win the presidency. Mccain just doesn't have the brains, leadership, or temperment to be president. He reacts to every situtation through impluse like a person buying something on sale and than later realizing they couldn't afford it anyways.

    October 15, 2008 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  18. Vegas Barbie for Obama

    It's all over but the last aggressive attacks by the old curmudgeon McCain tonight. Can't WAIT to vote early next week for OBAMA/BIDEN and help Nevada turn blue, too!
    YES WE CAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  19. Annie, Atlanta

    I wonder if John McCain is going to clean up his act, and Sarah's hateful mouth, before this is over. Their campaign slogan should be "Put Country in Jeopardy" instead of "Country First." This has been ugly, and has me afraid for all of us. I already cast my vote for Obama, for hope, after just a couple of days of Sarah's hate rallies. All I can do now is pray for all of us – even the hateful ones (especially them).

    October 15, 2008 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  20. Kim, Charlotte, NC

    Sarah Palin is enough to make anyone jump ship!

    October 15, 2008 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  21. Hana

    singing the Blues...it will be wonderful if all reds turn blue..

    October 15, 2008 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  22. G

    I still think it is to early to call, but if this stands until Nov 4 than Obama should be really happy that he could win the presidency. Mccain just doesn't have the brains, leadership, or temperment to be president. He reacts to every situtation through impluse like an implusive shopper buying something on sale and than later realizing they couldn't afford it anyways.

    October 15, 2008 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  23. facts are facts

    There are two other polling web sites that now have Obama's electoral vote count just under 350 and just over 350 respectively.

    Most of the U.S. will be blue by November 4th as John McCain is turning out to be Barak Obama's best friend.

    October 15, 2008 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  24. SENATUS POPOLUSQUE ROMANUS

    To McCLOWN: HASTA LA VISTA, BABY!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  25. Frank,MO

    YES-WE-CAN !! This is the great America ! Like Phoenix from the Ashes!

    That One '08

    October 15, 2008 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
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