October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. geecee827

    Please, Obama supporters, let's not get complacent. Don't trust the polls, or anything else! Get out there and vote. You can cheer all you want, but unless we all go out and vote, each and every one of us, and don't leave it to the other guy to do it for you, we cannot be certain they will win. Make sure you vote. Don't take anything for granted. The Rethugs are sneaky. We know from past elections.

    October 15, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  2. NYbywayof Texas

    JayInNewHampshire... Bush is not from Texas! He was mistakenly elected Governor, however isn't he from Maine or one of the Upper New England states? I think America has learned (by failed policies of the present administration), that we can no longer afford to be asleep at the helm. Never again will we allow our reputation, greatness, ingenuity and our uniqueness to be sold on the open market!!! Time to role up our sleeves and reclaim our position as a great-God blessed-nation again. The road to recovery is long, but at least we can begain to see it. Hold it steady BHO, hold it steady!!

    October 15, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  3. Sean

    Remember, this doesn't count. Only the votes in November count, so this won't happen unless you and everyone you know actually goes to the polls!

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  4. Winnie Hussein . . . in Montana

    That's all fine and dandy, but the important thing is that all of these people who say they are voting for Sen. Obama need to make sure and do so! Complacency can lose this election for the Democrats.

    Now, despite the fact that Sens. Obama and Biden are up in the polls, when are we going to hear so factual, in depth, investigative reporting on Sarah and Todd Palin's connections to the Alaskan Independence Party? This is very important considering the slanderous comments Palin has made about Sen. Obama. We need to know if she or any of her confidantes have the same beliefs as the majority of those members of the AIP, including its founder, Joe Vogel. He spewed some hateful, anti-American rhetoric in his day.

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  5. Willa

    It appears Barack Obama will get the most electoral votes and as an Obama supporter I will have much to celebrate if he is elected president in November. Notwithstanding I still worry about the outcome of this election. In 2000, it was supposed to be Gore/Lieberman and again in 2004, we all believed Kerry/Edwards had clinched it. Surprise, surprise......it was George W Bush who 'won' ..not just once but twice! So no matter whose 'ahead' in the polls, the actual outcome remains to be seen.

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  6. Ohio 4 Obama

    I just got a call from our state campaign headquarters. It seems that we no longer need volunteer hours or much cash in Ohio, now that Obama has wrapped up the state. This is great news for me. Now I can spend more time with my family since the election is over.

    Obama's got the votes, money and volunteers. We can rest easy now! We're so far ahead, we can stay home on election day and still win. This is exciting!

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  7. Ex-Republican for Obama

    Don't take it for granted anyone....and Obama...please beat this man senseless. Show him no mercy. Put him in his place and then let us all spit on the despicable person he has become.

    Obama/Biden '08, becaue McCain straight out SUCKS!

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  8. KNIGHT-7579

    There is a huge silent majority that will be heard on November 4. Just like in 1968 and 1980, they will not surrender their nation to the ultra-left, ultra-liberals. Obama will be left wondering what happened. Not all of us are voting our pocketbooks. Many will vote pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, pro-small business, pro-military, and pro-traditional american values.

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  9. Linda32

    I was wondering when CNN would update the map.

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  10. Steve/ Houston,TX

    Please Obama supporters, do not get to excited! We are not there yet. There is still much work to be done. We have to make sure that the people that are leaning towards Obama actually make it to the polls. Words without action do not count. Votes count! Make a difference, Make a change, Vote Barack Obama.

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  11. Trina

    "If the election were held today ... " .... why do they do that? It's NOT held today. Three weeks is a lifetime in politics. Adding drama and suspense is unnecessary. If you talked with Obama, he would tell you this thing is far from over. Obama/Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  12. GA for Obama

    Kevin, FL- No. Kerry was NOT leading in the Electoral College 19 days before the election or in October.

    October 15, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  13. andrea

    I bet this has got McCain hot under the collar . Even thow hes got us were he wants us HAHAHAHA!

    October 15, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  14. D hub

    red states are gonna keep turnin blue!!! Sarah Palin goin back to Alaska to hunt caribou

    October 15, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  15. LuvMyCountry

    Swing Baby Swing ....

    October 15, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  16. Karl

    Well, now i have just about seen it all. Chicago will now become the Capitol of the UN-United states and the Chicago insiders will replace the washington insiders. What a shame. Anyway, i would like to see one thing and one thing only to help me to decide on whom to vote on. This is a simple request and it will satisfy alot of others questions and innuendoes. PLEASE MR. OBAMA - SHOW THE GREAT PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES A CERTIFIED COPY OF YOU BIRTH CERTIFICATE JUST LIKE ALL OTHER CANDIDATES ARE REQUIRED AND DO IT BEFORE THE ELECTION TO PROVE THAT YOU ARE QUALIFIED TO RUN FOR OFFICE. THAT IS A SIMPLE REQUEST WITH OUT ANY RACISM, SLANDER, BIAS OR BIGGOTRY-JUST A SIMPLE REQUEST. UNLESS YOU HAVE SOMETHING TO HIDE?????????????????????????

    October 15, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  17. N.S of Huntsville, Al

    Sharing this comment from Brighter America08 I thought it was very accurate.

    I believe John McCain has run out of "comebacks"!! How many times has he reinvented himself during this campaign, how many times has he stood for something and promptly was against it? McCain does not seem to know what direction to take, he veers here, veers there, veers everywhere to the point that he himself doesn't know just where he stands. Even a cat with nine lives eventually goes belly up! McCain has nowhere to go, he is confused. "My fellow PRISONERS" comment tells a lot about this old, erratic, washed-out politician. Time to rid ourselves of the old politics and this old, washed out politician of yesteryear and move forward. McCain claims he KNOWS how to WIN wars--then, why are we still in Iraq and Afghanistan?? McCain claims he KNOWS how to catch Bin Ladin-then, whay hasn't he?? McCain claims he can fix the economy crisis....really? Didn't he swoop into Washington to do this?? Then, why didn't he fix it?? McCain just keep telling us big, fat lies about what he knows and what he will do and some people just lap it up like little puppies lapping up sweet millk. At least the puppies DO get their milk. McCain has NOT ended the wars, he has not caught Bin Laden, and he didn't deliver in DC and he will not end th wars, he will not catch Bin Laden, and he will not deliver on the economy. With his own mouth he has stated he does not know economics. How can he fix something about which he knows nothing about??

    October 15, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  18. was4hillarynow4that1

    This kind of poll makes me VERY nervous. It's like counting your chickens before they hatch. Let's not jinx the process, okay?

    October 15, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  19. Mary, San Diego

    The only 'change' Obama will effect is the 'change that's left in your pockets! He has so many grandiose plans and where will he get the money – from We the People. He'll ruin any hopes of a return to economic strength. He's going to be Robin Hood and the poor can sit back, not work hard, and still get the money from those that have busted their behinds to get ahead. A sad day in America when we become a Socialistic Government under Nobama.

    October 15, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  20. Student in NY




    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  21. MDer For Obama

    Let's just pray that the polls hold true and that no one feels like they can stay home on November 4th. This really is the most important election. Not only is history going to be made – either way, our standing in the world depends on it. I can't imagine the thoughts and headlines across the world if we elect McCain-Palin. Can you imagine Palin meeting with world leaders? I can't.

    Very seriously! Our country and its citizens can't tolerate another terms anything like that of Bush-Cheney. The future of our children and our children's children depends on what happens November 4th. Please don't doubt it.

    I have never been compelled to give to a political campaign or to knock on doors. This year I have.

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  22. Karen- Bring on the Elections - WE ARE ONE

    My FELLOW American's I just hope CNN is right... PLEASE WE NEED CHANGE IN THIS COUNTRY... I love how Obama is pulling in everybody, republicans (HAGEL), democrats , conservatives (Buckley) and liberals... get the picture.. He's trying to change the thinking of us, crossing all over barriers and put America back on top where we belong.

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  23. Cathy Agu

    Former Republican.

    I will vote for that ONE. Maverick Obama.

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  24. ran

    This is good news for the people but we can't let our guard down now. People don't think we don't need ever vote so good news indeed but vote regardless of what the news say about Obama/Biden being ahead. The race is not over untill 11/5/08.

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  25. Phil, Ashburn, VA

    VA will turn blue. People in Northern VA will make sure the ingnorance of our southern part of the state will remain there.

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
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