October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. LM

    Well then LET's just go AHEAD and give him the crown and THRONE since there is NO need now for ANYone to get out and vote.
    And by the way IF any one you seriously think that either of them ALONE can turn the economic turmoil around, you really are in need of serious help.
    It took ALOT of greed and a time to get us there, and NO ONE person can turn it around quickly - we are in for a long scary haul!

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  2. RGG

    The only way McCain can convince me that he is a maverick is by resigning from the Republican party and run as an independent. Yes, even at that late stage!.

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  3. ines

    401K statements go out around the 15th (today). It's not going to be good news for anybody. After the final debate tonight and people start getting their statements this week, McCain's numbers are going to plummet record-breaking fast.

    We need Obama now!

    October 15, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  4. A Khan

    It is wise to accept the reality. We the voters are looking who can best solve our issues today. Personal, racial & religious attacks should have no values in our society.

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  5. Pat from Canada

    It ain't over until its over! McCain can rise from no where literally. Don't under-estimate the man with more lives than a cat. There is still hope for McCain.

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  6. luke

    What prevents one camp (say Republicans) from making false answers when polled to let the other camp (say Democrats) believe they are winning?

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  7. Sunil

    Take nothing for granted. Obama is still 5 points behind in every state! Work and donate like he is 5 points behind. We have ways to go.

    Polls are meaningless.

    Make sure you vote – for Obama of course.

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  8. death of the republican party?

    As awesome as this is, we can't forget that Kerry was up in the polls as well. We still need to make sure everyone goes out and votes and that we continue to campaign for Obama to make sure it stays this way.



    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  9. Mister Sister

    North Dakota should be a toss up state, not lean McCain. The latest poll has Obama up by 2 points there (follow the link to the state polls in this article). Not sure how that's considered lean McCain. Although North Dakota only has 3 electoral votes, it's still a significant thing because like Virginia, North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democratic president in 44 years. It shows a shift in thinking that's being reflected across much of the US.

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  10. Pat from Canada

    It ain't over until its over! McCain can rise from no where literally.

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  11. I said Thanks, but No Thanks to another 4 years of g.o.p. corruption, arrogance and incompetence

    Steve from Dallas @ 4:06: Wrong, Tex, Obama is not (I mean NOT) giving money to people who don't earn enough to pay their taxes.
    Why don't you go to Obama's web site and find out for yourself.

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  12. rafael

    in 20 days the Republican with Mr Bush/Mr macain and Mrs Palin can go
    and win the war in iraq/kill osama and fix the USA economy but Obama will still win in november,Obama will be the next president of the
    UNITED STATE OF AMERICA,we only have to see Mr macain and Mr Obama faces and then you can see that rightnow the only face that looks
    like the face of the new president of USA is the Obama face,Obama walk/talk/listenand feel like a president,Mr Mcain only looks like somebody tired and ready to give up politic,Mr Mcain looks like a human ready to go home as somebody finished ready to relax till his day come,i feel sorry for Mr macain but his time in politic are finished,Zero.

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  13. Marc PDX


    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  14. Big Mike

    No time to get complacent, and over confident, we must ALL still work like it's Obama down 10 points in the polls. Talk to everyone you know, turnout is the key, we can't just eek out an electoral win, we need to wipe John Mclame and the Snow Bunny from Alaska off the map!

    October 15, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  15. Doug R.

    The electoral map will have more Blue than ever on 11/04/08. Obama/ Biden win by over 100 electoral votes!!
    The Republicans are running scared and becoming impulsive, desparate, and defensive. McCain head must be spinning like crazy. The debate tonight is going to be a barn burner.

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  16. hometowndemocrat

    Scott L.....where are you?? I miss your obtuse comments!!! I hope you haven't left....oh Scott, say it isn't so.............

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  17. Steve Holcomb

    I live in North Carolina and I believe our state will go to Obama. I know lots of people working really hard to make it happen. I have voted democrat in every election since 1974 but I have never been as excited about or followed an election so closely as this one. I know many first time voters who are supporting Obama. I personally have given money to the campaign and talked about the issues with my co-workers. I believe we are seeing history in the making and a turning point for our country much like the election of 1960 when John Kennedy ushered in a new era of hope for the future.

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  18. Dana

    Let's just hope that people will actually turn out to VOTE on election day!

    Obama-Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  19. Brian

    Unless Barack Obama does something incredibly stupid in the next 4 weeks (which looks unlikely), he wll be president. Most of America has already made a decision and it looks like Obama is that decision.

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  20. Lu

    Seeing that the mainstream media and polling is controlled by liberals I doubt the validity of this report but time will tell. Meanwhile, I'll just hope and pray Obama's agenda will be exposed for the foolishness it is before it's too late. Wake up America; we need change but not to be shortchanged by his rob the responsible hardworking folks to give to the poor. By the way, have any of you ever been employed by a poor person? Go ask some emploers how many people they plan on laying off if Obama gets elected. The wealthy will just use their lay-off savings to pay their Obama taxes.

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  21. mcsame/falin 08

    i wonder what mcsame will say about this, " we got them just where we want them"?

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  22. Too Bad

    Don't forget to VOTE folks, that's the ONLY to actually make this happen, get Obama in the WH.

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  23. Emma

    Hip, hip hooray!

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  24. Tommy, Chicago IL

    Change won't happen unless we VOTE!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  25. Dawn

    I find this whole sham of a polling process (especially by the totally far leaning left media) a farce. I have a theory that the polls are overly targeted toward Democrats...just like the populace that is sought out to register by ACORN. And anyone who actually believes that they are not going to lose money under the Obamanation is laughable.

    October 15, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
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