October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. kc in hick-town texas

    In reference to

    ~~Kim, Charlotte, NC October 15th, 2008 4:03 pm ET

    Yeah! Please remember to push Obama name on the ballot, and then vote straight Democrat.

    Yeah!~~

    IF YOU VOTE FOR OBAMA AND THEN PUSH STRAIGHT TICKET – YOUR VOTE FOR OBAMA WILL NOT BE COUNTED!!!!!

    it is safer to always go through and vote for each candidate. DONT vote the straight ticket!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  2. Hurricane

    Dow down another 700 points just hours before the debate.

    Let's see if Bill Ayers is on McCain's mind and lips. If McGeezer pulls that carp tonight, the repubs are finished for a decade.

    Go Barack!

    October 15, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  3. ShirleyY - Seattle

    THE AMERICAN PEOPLE IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE BRADLEY EFFECT, WATCH GOD'S GRACE EFFECT. WHAT GOD HAS FOR YOU IS FOR YOU AND NO WEAPON FORMED AGAINST GOD OR HIS CHILD WILL PROSPER.

    GOD LOVES THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO GIVE US A GREAT LEADER LIKE BARACK OBAMA.

    BY THE WAY, HUSSEIN MEANS HANDSOME ONE OR BEAUTIFUL ONE.

    October 15, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  4. BMS in NC

    The Dow is down 733 now. More votes for Obama.

    October 15, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  5. Latina for Obama (nj)

    Lets go my fellow americans...we can do this!!!

    YES WE CAN!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  6. chas alabama

    Every time McCain comes down on Obama the polls go higher for Obama, Cheney has a heart?

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  7. Mike

    A vote for McCain is a vote of confidence in Gov. Palin!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  8. LD in CALI

    I only have one thing to say...
    BLUE BABY BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  9. FreeNLovIt

    Obama's judgement and Clinton's economic vision are both the two attributes that this country desperately need.

    I hope Obama creates an economic czar, headed by Hillary, while he tackles the international community with Biden.

    We need the best of the best to save America, and at his perilous times, they are the TWO best candidates.

    We have so many problems, that yes, it will take THREE presidents to fix this mess.

    David Gergen once said our economy was hurting and how I view it, we need someone that can WALK on water.

    We need Obama's go-easy-lucky attitude and the authentic luck of the Clintons. I hope they work together. Hillary 2016!!

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  10. kap in atlanta

    McCain should be a statesman and end this contest with dignity. After all, he's a Senator who will be returning to the Senate. And don't forget folks, "Joey the Shark" will be presiding.

    O'Biden '08

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  11. North Atlanta GA

    McCain is TOAST!:
    Oh SNAP!

    It's time for McCain to perform another gimmick and suspend his campaign until Cheney recovers from his Frankenstein shock treatment.

    Dam that funny!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  12. Xavier, Saint Louis, Missouri

    Good! Obama/Biden all the way! GOP, can you say landslide?
    YES WE CAN!

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  13. Gary of El Centro, Ca

    The only thing left to the Republicans is to pull dirty tricks and practice voter suppression techniques on election day.......so watch out for that, they are experts.

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  14. Bravo

    People are starting to come around.... Palin McBush will destroy what's left of us and a six-pack isn't going to help.

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  15. Pro

    McCain only talks tough behind Cindy's and Sarah's skirts! Men say things face to face!

    Trump has billions and still has the flip, yellow, and brown teeth! I think he suffers from delusions about Palin!

    October 15, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  16. I said Thanks, but No Thanks to another 4 years of g.o.p. corruption, arrogance and incompetence

    Obama/Biden: "Don't it make your red states, blue."

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  17. Anne E.

    Come on, kids! We've got to do all we can to change/reverse/negate Rovian "strategery"!
    YES WE CAN!
    How do you spell "landslide"???

    I spell it: O-B-A-M-A B-I-D-E-N

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  18. Mike

    Can we say....OH YEAH!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  19. This one is for That One

    Forgive me........I take back all I said about bubbas.......welcome......join the team.........Obama and Biden are the best !!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  20. J.G. from AZ

    Go tell it on the mountain that

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  21. Ravi

    Lol, North Dakota and Montana?? I figured those two would always be solid Red. I like the look of that blue Virginia by the way!

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  22. chico from Virginia

    The TRUE voice of the American people will not be denied this election. There is NO room for doubt on this matter. The forces to be may have stolen the 2000 election from Vice-President Gore but it seems to have corrected itself in this one. They cannot hide this one from us. Not from Americans, not from the other countries, and most importantly, not from themselves. The "elite" are done. FINISHED.

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  23. carol

    We are nearly there Obama/Biden supporters.......people have realized that McCain cannot fix anything right now and his campaign has back fired on him.
    It is so obvious who is the smart man to lead this country alongside his great running mate.....we cannot wait until Nov to see the back of McCain and Palin as they have both been a total disgrace.

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  24. San Diego observer

    I am sick of all these polls and predictions. Just let the people vote and stop trying to control and guide the election!

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  25. Don from Maine

    America has woken up and realized what a pathetic republican ticket we have this year. McCain doomed himself when he picked Palin to be VP. She has no business anywhere near the white house. Any Hillary supporter who votes for Palin since Hillary was not picked is a total airhead. the American people have had enough. You may call yourself a maverick-but in 26+ years of being mavericky McCain still hasn't accomplished much more than politcs as usual. As for Palinshe hasn't done anything and doesn;t even have a clue what the VP does. It is not surprising to see the tide turn. Americans want a clear defined path for the future not smears, lies and rhetoric. Can you say OBAMA in a landslide victory? Sarah Palin will go down as the biggest political blunder in the last 40 years.
    YES WE CAN
    Obama 08

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
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