October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Al Mellen

    After the debate tonight,,,McCain will probably loose his mind,,,,,,,,maybe he already has. However,,,,,he has the option of returning to one of HER {Cindy's} many homes,,,,,,unlike most Americans who are just trying to keep their one home.

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  2. Pablo

    Now, get out and vote on Nov 4th!

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  3. Jessica

    Everyone...Turn out on Nov. 4th. Bring snacks and a book or your PSP and anticipate long lines (especially in low-income areas). But, wait and VOTE. We need every last vote to insure we don't have another "tie".

    Obama-Biden08 in Michigan! and every other progressive state in the land! God bless America!

    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  4. Nando, Florida


    October 15, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  5. FL Rep for Obama

    Differences between 2004/2008 Elections:

    It is true that we ALL must make our voices heard and vote (either early or on Nov 4th). But you cannot compare 2004 to 2008. In 2004 we had a President "impeached" by the House, but the economy was good and there was no war. In 2008, the economy has tanked and we are still in Iraq. Americans are different in 2008...we have an unpopular President (Rep.), a struggling economy, and a war that the majority of the population feels we need to end. That said, Obama has a better chance than Kerry...BUT WE ALL STILL NEED TO VOTE!!

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  6. weneedstrongleadership

    When it comes election day, please vote for who you think is best qualified for the job. Some people running for president have lost because people saw it was a landslide and that there vote didn't count, that's why the people who were ahead in the poles lost, please people don't let this happen again.

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  7. Always Blue Maryland

    Jay, you wrote exactly what I was going to write. I opened my 401K statement today (it's been sitting on my kitchen table for a few days). I had tears in my eyes as I saw how much I lost in ONE month. I am almost 60, on my own and am helping my two daughters pay $50K + in college loans so they can start their lives. I can't wait to vote and then I'm off to VA to make sure that everyone who wants to vote can vote!

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  8. Preco, NY

    When McCain became a senator in 1986, filling the seat of retiring Republican icon Barry Goldwater, he was finally in a position that a true maverick could use to battle the entrenched interests in Washington. Instead, McCain did the bidding of his major donor, Charlie Keating, whose financial empire was on the brink of collapse. Federal regulators were closing in on Keating, who had taken federally insured deposits from his Lincoln Savings and Loan and leveraged them to make wildly RISKY real estate ventures. If regulators restricted his investments, Keating knew, it would all be over.
    Now, when Keating tried to stack the federal regulatory bank board with cronies, McCain made a phone call seeking to push them through. In 1987, in an unprecedented display of political intimidation, McCain also attended two meetings convened by Keating to pressure federal regulators to back off. The senators who participated in the effort would come to be known as the Keating Five.
    This is one of the reasons why RED states are turning BLUE!!!!!
    McCain is too RISKY!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  9. J.G. from AZ

    Go tell it on the mountain that Barak Obama was born. Oh what a happy day.

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  10. tootsie

    let;s not get too confident, we ned everyone to get out and vote!

    Obama Biden!

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  11. Ruth

    I live in Indianapolis and all the local polls have Obama at even or winning...different from the national polls. I'm always surprised not to see us discussed more on these discussions of swing states. We expect to be in Obama's camp and be the November surprise for you all!

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  12. Helene

    Way to go Barack !

    October 15, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  13. Denise OKC

    ROCK STEADY BABY!!! We will continue to fight its Official.
    Obama/Biden 08 Yea Baby

    October 15, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  14. Musicpromo Ca

    I said it a year ago.... this race should not even be close, and as we get closer to the Nov 4th date. I think that we will see that it's not.

    Go! Obama Go!

    October 15, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  15. Streetkid wano e Toronto

    Lets avoid complacence! Lets turn the polls into votes Nov.4

    Go Obama Go Biden 08!! YES WE CAN!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  16. Bill From VA

    Tradition Republican for Obama! Way to get Virginia involved, it is nice to see us go for change for the first time in 40+ years.

    Obama 08

    October 15, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  17. Obiwan

    The Ball is on McCains 30 yard line, we can't afford no fumbles or picks, lets all stay focused by everyone going out to vote. and we will get into the END ZONE. GO BARACK and JOE GO

    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  18. Mark

    The country needs the change of needs, not the change of the wrap itself without changing the stuff inside the wrap. We need the change of 'that one'. We do not want an AIP supporter inside the White House. AIP do not believe in our constitution!!!!! Did you watch the Rick Sanchez report yesterday?? Who is backing up that Hypocrat Palin??

    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  19. Think Blue

    And Indiana is looking blue............

    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  20. FathersLastSon

    Due to certain laws in a few of them red states OBAMA may not get the votes derserved however if he does it willa similiar turnout of that in 2000, and 2004 where as votes got lost ...which way did it go.. which did it go..

    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  21. Prakash

    May God bless THAT ONE!

    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  22. Dominique

    This is good news but we are not done yet. Please continue to volunteer. Knock on doors. Make those phone calls. Talk to your neighbors. Vote early if you can. We can do this.

    Working hard to turn VA blue!

    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  23. KEVIN




    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  24. FL Rep for Obama

    CORRECTION: 2000 Election and 2008 Election. Gore was ahead in the popular and Electoral vote and still "lost" to Bush. I apologize for my typo...I do know my history!!

    October 15, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  25. Richard

    Debate drinking game: everytime McCain tries to smear Obama tonight with Ayers, ACORN, or Jesse Jackson's nonsense, BOTTOMS UP!

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
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