October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Kevin


    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  2. brian thompson biloxi, ms

    Mississippi is starting to get "OBAMATIZED!!"

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  3. Sherri

    Change is coming! Amen.

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  4. Marco in AZ

    My wife and I just voted by mail here in Arizona. Two more votes for THAT ONE in the bag, and despite all the odds I'm still rooting for a BIG UPSET in McSame's own home turf!

    OBAMA-BIDEN 08!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  5. Marie

    That one will win. (Update on Nov 4).

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  6. David/Florida

    Glory, Glory Hallelujah. The Landslide is coming. Let's get out and Vote, Vote and Vote. There is no looking back now. The Obama Family will walk down Pennsylvania Ave to their White House. It will be a Grand Day for America, the United States of America. November 5th should be declared a Holiday for all the People. The long nightmare will finally be over. God bless America.

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  7. President McCain

    If I didn't know better I'd be worried.


    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  8. Greg285

    Americans are finally seeing the light (In their pockets as well) and McCain is just 4 more years of the same failed policies. Bush is the worst President in the history of this great country and McCain agreed with him over 90% of the time. The Republican brand is dead and we need to send McCain and Palin out with those failed policies. The era of divide and conquer is over! This is the United States of America, not Red or Blue states of America….

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  9. political junkie

    Looks good for Obama – but – we've been disappointed before!
    Chris Rock said something like this on Real Time with Bill Mahr
    a couple of weeks ago ' silly Obama thinks that just because he
    gets the most votes, he'll win .... they'll change the rules again
    somehow...' I also heard another comic say ' I won't feel safe
    about it until about the 3rd year into the presidency !'
    After all – Florida was STOLEN from Gore (you think it was just
    a coincidence that Jeb Bush was governor then???!!!) and
    Kerry was CHEATED out of Ohio... so don't get all complacent!!!
    Republicans are masters at manipulation. What else could
    possibly explain not 1 – but 2 Bush terms????????????

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  10. S in NY

    This whole deal is shady and smells a little funny.... do we really want to become a socialist nation? As bad as things are trust me they can be much worse....

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  11. Mark G

    Obama/Biden all the way. Tonight will sew it up for them. Dipstick and lipstick can go back home.

    October 15, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  12. Terri

    Please vote early.

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  13. Susan in SC

    OH YES!!!

    Now... IF WE CAN ONLY:
    Keep Jesse Jackson's mouth shut;
    Keep W off of the TV (so stocks stop tanking);
    Send Sarah a one way ticket to Alaska;
    Send Cindy McCain to drug rehab; and
    Send John McCain to the retirement village –
    Our county may yet stand a chance!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  14. Linda

    Yes! OBAMA-BIDEN '08

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  15. Andy in Atlanta

    Who is going to pay all the bills? All the people with means have taken their remaing money from the stock market and headed south to Costa Rica and Aruba.

    Obama getting elected will only hurt the poor. The rich have left and took the good jobs with them.

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  16. tom

    Been up in the poll is great, but you have to get out and vote and make sure you take someone else with you, then go and look for more people and get them to vote. Thats how we would win this election.
    We are still the underdog don't let the polls fool you.

    Vote for Peace, Prosperity and Change. Vote Obama/Biden.

    Lets send George Bush and John McCain Packing.

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  17. dittohead with forty names

    Even the biggest Red State,"Texas", is worried about Obamas coattails down here.If you thought Eddie Haskill was funny,your gonna love Sarah Palin and Johnny.

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  18. randy

    i just got my absentee ballot guess what guys i am going to stamp lol
    barack the vote america.

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  19. Matt

    This pretty much puts an end to the election. McCain needs to pull out of the state. He has no chance anymore. It is so obvious that the election will go for Obama. LAAANDSLIIIIIIIIIIIDE!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  20. X-Republican in Texas for Obama

    If the polls are as accurate as they were in the primaries things are looking great for Obama. I can wait to vote Tuesday for Obama/Biden.

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  21. Jilly in Cali

    As Betty said: Dems, you MUST vote on Nov. 4th if we're going to make his happen......

    Young people: Obama is depending on you mostly. GET OUT AND VOTE. Your futures are too important to leave in the hands of McCain and Palin!

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  22. MikeH

    I'm more interested in the Israeli Lobby's attempt to swing this election by spreading lying propaganda in the form of DVD snuck into people's newspapers.

    These are the same right wing extremeis people who tried to get this country to attack Iran.

    They would have american soldiers bleed and die for their apartheid regime.

    If anyone catches asomeone sneaking a dvd into a newspaper, turn them into the FBI.

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  23. Erik

    Does anyone see the pattern? Obama up in the polls, stock market goes down. Anyone with a bit of economic sense knows that if Obama wins, he will destroy the economy.

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  24. rich

    Its about time McCain get a one way ticket back to Arizona. Sarah can hitch a ride back on the moose she rode into town on back to Alaska.

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  25. BrentnChicago

    The finish line is on the horizon. How perfect that Obama's symbol for his campaign is a sun coming up over a horizon with rays beeming out. It is a new day for America. A new time! A new beginning! Obama and Biden will lead us through these past eight years of darkness and Bush-McCain policies into the light. The new beginning! Let the count down begin!

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
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