October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Republican Voting OBAMA

    Oklahoma will go blue

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  2. Cindy Nelson

    I love this when I hear it. I just hope it holds!!!!
    I live in PA, and I still feel the race card is an issue here in this state, around the Pittsburgh area. I pray this news holds true, and we have a victory on 11/4 for the Dems.

    I think people are waking up to the idea that Sarah Palin could be their President, and are backing away from that ticket.

    I also think that Obama has been running a good campaign, with good points, and he is just a far Superior Candidate.

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  3. Paying Attention

    O..B..A..M..A ! ! !

    YES ! ! !

    I can't wait to vote...

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  4. Melanie

    YES, WE CAN!!!!
    GO OBAMA/BIDEN 2008!!

    October 15, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  5. Fleas

    I wouldn't guarantee the Anti-Christ a victory just yet.

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  6. That One won

    Remember the primay in NH, Obama was predicted the winner with a larger margin but he did not win NH.

    It is not over yet, we still have several millions of racists, and poll-liers out there. The Bradley-Wilder effect is well and alive in all the polls

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  7. Patrick

    KEEP FIGHTING DEMS. DONT LET POLLS FOOL YOU> WE NEED EVERY SINGLE VOTE. If we show up..Nov. 4th will be a JOY!

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  8. Jos/TN

    simply put Thank God

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  9. j

    As much as I hope Obama's lead holds true and continues to expand, the only numbers that really matter are those that turn up on election day so it's really important for people to make a commitment to vote and show up to the polls to cast their ballot. In other words, don't count a win as a given until it happens. Get out and VOTE!

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  10. Ben Reese

    Go Georgia & North Dakota! Keep working to become blue!

    Obama/Biden 2008 4 LIFE

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  11. Michelle

    I just received my Obama bumper sticker...I put it on my car immediately so that I can show the Mccain supporters that FLORIDA is all about "Obama"!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  12. adeoluwa

    mcCAIN seems to be geting CAINED!!

    October 15, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  13. Rick Cross

    I am a very stong Obama supporter but one cannot take anything for granted; ask Al Gore. It looks great now but the race will tighten. Virginia, NC, Ohio and Colorado are the key. GO OBAMA?BIDEN!

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  14. Gerald in Georgia

    Come on Democrats!!! We still have get out there and vote!!!! Vote!! Vote!!!! Don't start celebrating until the votes have been counted. Encourage other democrats and indpendents and republicans to get out there and vote Obama/ Biden!!!!!

    Obama08
    Change we can believe in!!

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  15. Obama is a Joke

    I hope more and more people in Ohio see the video clip between Obama and the plumber. Ohio will go McCain.

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  16. Charlie in Rockford Michigan

    based on the map Obama won't only win but win BIG!!!!!
    I CAN'T WAIT!!!!!!
    OBAMA! OBAMA! OBAMA! OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!
    YES WE CAN!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  17. Colleen

    This is far from over- And it will not be a landslide by any means- Please

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  18. HSNP

    If the Virginia polls are even close to correct then other Southern states can swing, too. West Virginia and Arkansas should be first among them.

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  19. Colorado for Obama

    I VOTED FOR "THAT ONE" VIA ABSENTEE BALLOT YESTERDAY!!

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  20. jean from orlando

    As an Obama supporter – I hope we realize that this is justa POLL – so if some of us decides to stay home for the elections – thinking that Obama has it under wraps – then it's safe to say McSleezy may still win the WHITE HOUSE and ruin what is left of this country

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  21. JIMBISCIELLO

    THIS IS GOOD NEWS, HOWEVER AS THE MAN ONCE APTLY SAID " IT IS NOT OVER UNTIL IT IS OVER".
    WE CANNOT SIT ON OUR HANDS AND THINK THAT THIS IS OVER, WE MUST MARCH ON UNTIL FINAL VICTORY IS ACHIEVED ONCE AND FOR ALL.
    HUNKER DOWN ,WORK HARD ,ANTICIPATE EVERYTHING , EXPECT NOTHING AND THIS WILL HAPPEN.
    THIS COUNTRY MUST SEND THE REPUBLICANS PACKING – TIME FOR MC CAIN TO GO HOME, TIME FOR GIULIANI TO SHUT UP AND MOST IMPORTANT TIME FOR PALIN TO BE A HOCKEY MOM AND NOTHING MORE....

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  22. Mark

    Do not forget to vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  23. What!!!!!

    Oh that one!!!!!! My president Senator Obama!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  24. Cindy Nelson

    One more thing. Remind me never to vacation in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, or South Dakota......
    Right up the middle of our country they run pure red.

    October 15, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  25. Connie

    If the people in Indiana does not wake up and turn our state blue I am moving to Alaska , no make that Canada , so I can get one of those jobs McSenile will be shipping there. OBAMA/BIDEN 08
    Connie from Indiana

    October 15, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
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