October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. MikeH

    It ain't over yet, we gotta make sure people are legally registered and that they vote.

    Fight the Republican vote suppression effort with all you've got.

    The future of the Constitution, Bill of Rights, and Freedom of expression are at stake.

    October 15, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  2. Linda in The Old Dominion(Virginia)

    This is my dream come true, Goodbye good old boys, at last, we see a change coming. McCain should take a bus back to AZ and retire on a porch gracefully Sarah Palin well, just go home and raise your family, we have had enough of your rude and vile campaigns..

    October 15, 2008 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  3. Brett in NC

    I'll bet any one of you brainless Nobama supporters that he loses in NC!

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  4. Friend of Obama

    That's what I am talking about. Change that Electoral Map – YES YOU CAN OBAMA/BIDEN 08

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  5. Retired Army in San Antonio

    The fact that Virginia is moving into the 'blue' column is final 'proof positive' that the McCain/Palin ticket is rendered null & void!!

    That One/Biden 2008

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  6. SB in NoVA

    Turn VA Blue!!!!!

    YES WE CAN!!!

    Obama/Biden 08 and BEYOND!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  7. John A

    This Ohioan is voting OBAMA, baby.

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  8. Beth E

    Go, Barack, Go!

    But EVERYONE keep your video cameras and cell phones on and poised at all polling stations for illegal actions. There are still corrupt polling officials and Diebold machines are still used without any paper trail.

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  9. Ex-mod-GOP for Obama

    I can confirm that Obama is surging here in North Carolina.

    Just twenty days to go ...

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  10. Hoku

    I don't think that McCain can afford to pull out of any of the Red States. He has already disappointed the base of Republicans in Michigan. In fact, with many high profile conservatives not supporting McCain, it has become very difficult for McCain's campaign people to gain more support from their own base as well as the undecideds.

    October 15, 2008 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  11. Ain't Got No Sense

    I've been Obamatized!

    October 15, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  12. Marco

    One DOWN.....GEORGIA to go..... Dont let us down peach staters. We know you can do it.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  13. John Poggendorf; Prescott, AZ

    GO – BAMA!

    GO – BAMA!!

    GO – BAMA!!!

    (Repeat as necessary until you finally get it right, America!)

    October 15, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  14. Andy in Va

    Ask Palin if she understands how many states Obama is palling around with.

    October 15, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  15. John Lawrence

    I cannot wait until the day after the election.
    Cafferty can finally shut up!
    I am sick and tired of hearing his big mouth!
    Talk about an angry person!

    October 15, 2008 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  16. Anisha

    This is the best news I have heard all day! I am "That One"

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  17. Maggie from Virginia

    Yes We Can!

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  18. Matt

    I predict:



    I hope the remainder of the toss ups will go Obama NC, FL, CO, NV, MO. Heck he could even take WV and IN.


    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  19. Sandy - PA

    Can anyone explain to me how Louisiana, after they went through with Katrina under this administration, can POSSIBLY be a red, or a red-leaning state?? That, to me, is just unbelievable! But hey, that's how we got W in the first place,I guess.

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  20. Jarno

    Keep up the good work, Obama/Biden supporters!

    After America voted Bush in for the second term, I thought that all hope was lost – the country was overrun by idiots.

    This time, after a disastrous 8 years of a war-mongering, radical republican administration, this election seems to me to be a simple test of sanity – if you're willing to let the same party back into office YET AGAIN, then America truly deserves the financial ruin, and plummeting reputation in the world, that it's now suffering. Too bad that the effects of bad choices in America ripple out into the rest of the world, that has to suffer through the consequences of choices they had no influence over.

    The world is holding it's breath, wishing that the name of the next president of the United States is Obama.

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  21. Palin grosses me out

    Mcpain lied by putting politics before country....if he's chosen one of the qualified candidates he'd have a better chance today......Thank God for Obama Biden america can now regain it's true Glory in the world and in economics....pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeese do vote on novvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv 4thhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  22. JL

    This still means nothing...polls rarely transfer to actual votes.

    Don't get comfortable and blow off voting, Obama supporters. This is the time to dig and become determined to vote, not the time to declare victory.

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  23. mike

    When read above comments i just wonder -Why so many stupid people ? O Obama , god Obama , save us Obama – so stupit. Nothing he going to do, just tax you ,make American communist economy and smile.

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  24. Feature87

    Go Obama...Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida will be blue!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  25. bornjustice

    God does not want to dam America, he wants to bless America!

    I 'm almost tearing to know that the majority of Americans this time really jump out of those old politic tricks, recognizing and listening to the voice of a real leader – God Guides You!!!

    Vote now and till the last minute for Obama/Biden!

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
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