October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Sandy - PA

    Can anyone explain to me how Louisiana, after they went through with Katrina under this administration, can POSSIBLY be a red, or a red-leaning state?? That, to me, is just unbelievable!

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  2. Mike

    Obama, please stay focus! I talked with people today whom normally vote republican who are voting for Obama. The tidalwave is building. Keep it going! Stay on message! Go Obama!

    October 15, 2008 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  3. I WANT "THAT ONE" FOR PREZ...

    MONTANA is next to swing for "that one"

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  4. Too Bad It Won't Make It's Way to the Mainstream Media

    I'm not much of a Howard Stern fan, but he recently showed the ignorance of many Obama supporters. It's too long a story, but if you can get it, you'll love it. The Obama supporters actually supported many of McCain's proposals stances while expressing support for Obama. What a bunch of Ignoramuses!!

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  5. CH

    NC won't stop working for the Obama/Biden ticket until Nov.5. We don't trust the Repugnicans . Yes we can!!

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  6. Annie, Atlanta

    Mitch – great observation. And I'd add in more ways than just geographically.

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  7. Demi

    Obama supporters go and vote for him NOW!!!
    I did it today during my lunch break. I feel good!

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  8. bluestate

    I can't wait for Mccain's concession speech

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  9. Aurelia Dean

    I hope he really does do the things he promises but he might need 8 years to do it. I am voting for "that one"

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  10. Sandy - PA

    How can Louisiana, after they went through under this administration, POSSIBLY be a red, or a red-leaning state?? That, to me, is just unbelievable!

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  11. Russ

    Kerry was NOT leading in the Electoral College in 2004. In fact, let's use Electoral-Vote.com to look back in time.

    Today the site has Obama at 357 Electoral Votes and McCain at 181 Electoral Votes.

    How did the site look four years ago?

    October 15, 2004
    Bush 284
    Kerry 228

    This is a completely different race.

    And while Obama is in a great position to win, it's no where close to being over. There's still a lot that needs to be done if we want Obama and Biden to be the next President and Vice President.

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  12. Glenn

    Just wondering. The 95% of Blacks voting for Obama....are they racist.....or will if he wins the next four years everyone in congress that disagrees with him will also be racist. I am voting for McCain because he is not a SOCIALIST. Wealth Redistribution. For those of you who don't understand this.....He takes my money and gives it to people who do not pay taxes. MORE WELFARE. Thanks Obama

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  13. Frank

    How can Louisiana, after they went through under this administration, POSSIBLY be a red, or a red-leaning state?? That, to me, is just unbelievable!

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  14. Unshrub

    McCain has a new campaign slogan: "A day late and a dollar short."

    October 15, 2008 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  15. Frobama

    I likes Obamer for some reason.

    October 15, 2008 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  16. young and informed independant WASP( woman against sarah palin )

    TEARS OF JOY!!!! (AND HOPE)

    October 15, 2008 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  17. Charlie in Rockford Michigan

    WE ARE NOT DONE YET!!!!
    LETS WIN FLORIDA!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  18. Wouldn't Life Be Great

    If all the Barry supporters lived in either California or New York!

    October 15, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  19. John M. Hathorn

    IF OBAMA WINS, WE WILL ALL BE RICH FOR HE PROMISES NO TAXES AND FREE STUFF FOR EVERYONE. MIGHT I REMIND YOU ALL THAT THE SAME TYPE OF THINKING GO US IN THE MESS WE ARE IN NOW.

    October 15, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  20. Desiree

    Do not forget – while voting for the PRESIDENT is very important, WE ALL NEED TO DO RESEARCH ON OUR LOCAL AND STATE REPRESENTATIVES AS WELL!!!! THESE are the people that help shape our country and vote ON OUR BEHALF! Go to your State's website and print out a list of every one running for each office, so that when you go to vote on November 4th, you are not only voting for Obama, but the best state and local representatives for you as well.

    October 15, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  21. Conceicao

    God bless America, Go Obama
    YES WE CAN

    October 15, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  22. Nom Deplume

    Wonder how the Virginians will feel when the knock on the door comes, and the newly created Gun Recovery Squad captain says "turn em in, boys, turn em in."

    October 15, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  23. Dan Fr. Canada

    Thank God for this. The whole world is dumbfounded on how anyone is even considering a vote for a republican after the atrocious reign of president Bush. Especially one that voted with him 95% of the time. McCain says "I'll cut taxes". Does he not realize that your country is BROKE. Not even broke, in more debt that you could ever pay off. You need to raise taxes, you need to have strong leadership and you need intelligence. The McCain/Palin ticket is a perfect example of the wrong way to take your country out of this. PLEEEEASE VOTE OBAMA FOR THE SAKE OF THE FREE WORLD.

    October 15, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  24. chuck

    the states not turning blue are the "Bible" belt states. Religion is truly one of the most divisive institutions ever created by man, and is now trying to divide the greatest nation on earth. Don't let it happen America. We are one nation and one people no matter how much religion has told you to hate certain groups of people who have never harmed anyone. Fight Fight Fight is the same as Hate Hate Hate.

    October 15, 2008 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  25. RayRay,NC

    Polls are just polls people. we still have to get out there and vote to make this truly happen. This is not a time to relax. If we do McCain will win and we'll be slapping our foreheads.

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
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