October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Ed North Carolina

    Hitting independent voters such as myself with hate filled recorded phone calls as I have been getting from the RNC will not help McCain. Do the Republicans have any thing positive at all to offer?

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  2. Don in Florida

    I'd love to have a T-Shirt that says "I'm with That One!" on it. 🙂

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  3. Un-Decided Voter, Now Decided

    Guys Please GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!! VOTE!!!! VOTE!!
    VOTE EARLY but please VOTE for OBAMA/BIDEN

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  4. Jimmy

    I feel bad for McCain.
    He deserves some respect for serving our nation, but had and has wrong judgment when it mattered most.

    Universal truth.. " One cannot win peace with war... Peace can only spread peace"
    We still have to work hard to make sure that the GOP is voted out of power in all races and respects

    God bless everybody..

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  5. texas voter

    Dont ease up on them Obama. Keep the pressure on them. The American people dont need a hail marry in the fouth quarter.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  6. Glenn

    SOCIALISM....WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION. He takes my money and gives to to those who now pay no income taxes. WELFARE Trapping more people into relying on the Government....for generations.....like down in New Orleans.....Are the 95% of blacks voting for Obama racist? Just wondering. More Welfare

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  7. JT from TN

    O'bama only needed one more state to lean his way to win, MCcain needed all the toss ups to go his way. I think if polls are correct and the votes go like they show, o'bama will be the next president.

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  8. Looking Forward

    Kick his butt, John. Obama is a waste. Get him confused so I can watch him talk in his ever-so famous vicious circles.

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  9. Connie

    Karen from phoenix I think all Christen should be praying for Obama and Biden. You can tell that both of them care, they are both devoted family men and I believe they feel our pain. Please pray for Obama for the debate. Old white women from Indiana hoping this state goes blue.OBAMA/BIDEN 08
    Connie from Indiana

    October 15, 2008 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  10. alvin from tampa

    Shakes fist like Raul Julia in the Street Figher movie and says " GAME OVA! "

    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  11. Meka

    All States will SWING SENATOR OBAMA.

    OBAMA/BIDEN '08-'12

    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  12. Carolyn

    I love it....I love it....North Carolina is with you all the way (Senator Obama/Biden).....I agree Tim yes I'm taking a vacation day on Nov.4....to do what ever it takes. North Carolina is going BLUE...

    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  13. LaJuan


    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  14. Kirby

    What about the Bradley effect? Don't forget that. Also, don't forget all the Hillary supporters who are lying to the pollsters. Don't be surprised when NY goes to McCain.

    This is the trouble with polls and computers: garbage in, garbage out.

    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  15. Beaz

    A Democratic President and Democratic Majority in Congress! Quit your jobs – a crazy check for all!

    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  16. Anna, IL

    It's about time you updated your electoral map. Your map looked like a joke for the past few weeks.

    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  17. Republicans Hate America

    Put the christian extremists where they belong in the minority and irrelevant.

    October 15, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  18. andrea

    We need to remember to get out to vote, Gore had the popular vote in 2000 but lost the election,, we cant let another bushwacker get elected!!! so dont let these polls stop you from doing your best to get everyone you know to get out and VOTE!!!!!! OBAMA/BIDAN!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  19. Don in Florida

    here in Florida I will drive folks to the polls starting Oct 20 when early voting starts here.

    Go That One!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  20. William from Virginia Beach

    I have never been so excited to vote. I know and understand that EVERYONE is entitled to his or her own opinion, but I am still trying to understand how some can call Palins Ignorance and obvious lack of knowledge, intelligence. That is why I am confident that Obama and Biden will win, because knowledge is Power, Claiming to have power is not.

    October 15, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  21. Retired Army in San Antonio

    Hey JB........you mad, Brah?

    October 15, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  22. Perusing-Through


    All good news but can't exhale until its in the bag.

    GOD Bless the United States of America!
    GOD Bless the Obama-Biden Leadership Team!

    October 15, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  23. Tired of the Nonsense

    I'm so glad McCain had the horrible judgement of picking Sara Airhead Palin instead of Mitt Romney......he handed Obama the Presidency on a silver platter........wooooooooooooo hoooooooo!!!

    OBAMA/BIDEN '08'12



    October 15, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  24. angel

    im a 25 year old and i think this election will be decided on the economy and has clearly affected the whle nation when bush red states are now toss up or like virginia now leaning obama MCCAIN IS OUT OF TOUCH and cant rally out of this one
    i will be SURPRISED if Obama doesnt win. i beleive he will win and possibly in a landslide,and in this last debate Obama needs to modivate americans and the independent voters,and if he does

    barrack hussien Obama 2oo8

    October 15, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  25. Voter08

    I Predict:

    Obama/Biden: 364
    McSame/Pitbull: 174

    I'm winning a bottle of Hennessy.

    October 15, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
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