October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Cathy

    I am from Georgia and we will show up and represent for Obama and Biden.

    October 15, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  2. White Male Veteran from Minnesota

    Yep...McCain and Palin have them just where they want them.

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  3. Bam!

    What more can I say?? Obama/Biden to the White House!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  4. mendoza

    WE HAVE TO COME OUT AND VOTES GUYS GIRLS, BUT THIS IS GREAT NEWS! TIME TO TAKE BACK OUR COUNTRY MY FELLOW AMERICANS! CHANGE IS HERE AND ON THE WAY TO DC!

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  5. Heather

    Let's send Sarah home!!!

    Vote early and make sure your vote is counted!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  6. That One

    We are going to win over 365 Electoral vote and will turn this blue and red state into the United States.

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  7. Fabrizio

    I write from Italy, and I hope that Obama/Biden will win! Despite of our premier Silvio :-(, who ran to Washington to try to help Bush and his "follower" McCain.
    OBAMA/BIDEN for 8 years!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  8. Hinda

    I am from VA – and Proud of my State!

    Go Obama/Biden 08!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  9. Cindy from NC

    Who ever is talking smack about the polls don't mean anything to the OBAMA MAMA's.... Guess what, Obama supporters aren't worried because the polls don't include the millions of folks that aren't polled... Like the voters w/ cel phone/blackberries, college kids and millions of very excited 1st time voters who are going to
    BARAK THE VOTE...

    VOTE EARLY PEOPLE AND VOLUNTEER TO BRING VOTERS TO THE POLLS FOR BARAK...

    October 15, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  10. VETS4Obama

    McBush and his smart mouthed eye candy V.P. choice must be getting desparate! Time to pack up and go back to you igloo Caribou Barbie....there you can spew hate and abuse power all you want! McShame showed VERY poor judgement picking her!

    October 15, 2008 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  11. pgb

    VOTE!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  12. Cindy from NC

    Who ever is talking smack about the polls don't mean anything to the OBAMA MAMA's.... Guess what, Obama supporters aren't worried because the polls don't include the millions of folks that aren't polled... Like the voters w/ cel phone/blackberries, college kids and millions of very excited 1st time voters who are going to
    BARAK THE VOTE...

    VOTE EARLY PEOPLE AND VOLUNTEER TO BRING VOTERS TO THE POLLS FOR BARAK...

    October 15, 2008 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  13. Greg in Mpls

    I'm happy but cautious about this.

    We've still got a debate tonight. And then 20 more days until the election. A lot can happen in 20 days.

    And remember...even if Obama was up in every poll by 30 points...it means nothing unless we got out and VOTE on November 4th!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  14. tjb

    ONE THING ABOUT POLLS AND THE PEOPLE WHO TAKE THEM........."FIGURES DON'T LIE BUT LIARS FIGURE"..... The same goes for SPREADING THE WEALTH

    October 15, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  15. No McCain

    I hope teh latest pool is proof enough to McCain, Bush and the whoel world that we Americans learned a lot from teh mistake we made in electing Bush.

    October 15, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  16. elm

    To Valerie,

    The only liars in this campaign are John McCain and Sarah (know nothing) Palin.

    Patriotic Americans just say no to:

    More War McCain &
    Taliban Palin

    October 15, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  17. The World

    Is it the destiny of the world, during the most dangerous time, president Barack Obama? Even Louis Farrakhan endorses Barack Obama, and declares him "Messiah," what does that mean? Let's examine his ties with ACORN, Bill Ayers and Rev. Wright, any good and healthy influence?

    October 15, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  18. Brian NYC

    I think i can open a fresh pack of thongs now. I'm thinking of throwing the biggest party on Nov. 4th.

    October 15, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  19. Blue is my favourite colour

    Polls lie, they don't sample everyone. It would be great if they polled all the registered voters, but that would take a long time, so a few thousand here and there being polled everyday gives a snap shot, yes, but the results may still be skewed. THE ONLY POLL THAT COUNTS are the votes that are counted, so get out there and vote.

    Obama/Biden for 8 years.

    October 15, 2008 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  20. Akinola - Houston

    "WHY DOES IT HAVE TO TAKE A VERY COMPETENT BLACK MAN TO RUN AGAINST A VERY INCOMPETENT WHITE MAN BEFORE A BLACK MAN CAN MAKE IT TO THE WHITE HOUSE" – FE

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  21. Jerry Atrick

    Just look at the few anti-Obama posts. There is already weeping, wailing and downright anger. Poor souls are in denial.

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  22. In Kansas

    For the one's who state in here that you 401K are tanking because of Bush, don't you think that would happen no matter who was in the White House. People seem to think that the only way this country is run is what the President does. The President is not the only branch that runs this country. Think about that one!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  23. Gary/Georgia

    The polls are just that...Polls! Anything could happen between now and Nov.4th! Georgia will stay with McCain!

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  24. hangdogit

    Virginia is great news - but there are a handful of other swing states where Obama leads – FL, CO and others.

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  25. hello

    Valerie,
    good luck to you when I will see you in new york city subway begging
    for bread.

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
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