October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Charlotte

    Now everyone has to get out their door and make it happen. If we don't vote, we can ruin it. Vote, vote, vote. Make the polls look like they were too conservative. The fat lady ain't sung yet, but we're hoping it's going to be a gut-busting killer aria when she does.

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  2. Anonymous

    And they doubt Obama´s character? Has anybody read recen articles in GQ and Rolling Stone magazines where they discuss McCain´s "heroic character" ? I don´t think he has the moral right to doubt anybody.

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  3. Chris in Nebraska

    I'm a proud Republican that's likely going to vote for Sen. Obama on Nov. 4, because my party does not deserve to be rewarded for what's gone on in this country for the past eight years. That said, I respect John McCain for his remarkable service to this country, and I think Sarah Palin is a rising star that just needs more time to hone her political skills. I would ask everyone on this board to be respectful of the people running for office, because as both Obama and McCain have said repeatedly, we're Americans first.

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  4. Poll unhappy

    Please with the polls (eyes rolling). Leave the voting until voting day. We don't need to micromanage the election!

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  5. Guzmam405

    Obama, I promise Florida for you!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  6. Mike in Toronto

    Well that's great news indeed. But let's remember that traditionally there is a ten point spread between the polls and the actual results on election day–ie, a candidate who is up 12 or 13 points in the polls would win the election by 2 or 3 percentage points. The lesson here is –VOTE, dammit! Polls don't choose the next President–votes do. And you can't scream "foul" if you didn't step up to the plate.

    October 15, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  7. CW

    There is no way that North Dakota will vote Blue

    October 15, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  8. Not a socialist

    Yes. Finally! Only a few more months and then we will finally be a socialist government. Keep that socialist vibe going.

    October 15, 2008 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  9. Rob

    This Republican voted early, for Obama. There are 20 days left. Volunteer, donate, phone bank, canvas! This nightmare is almost over.

    October 15, 2008 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  10. Mary (Texas)


    Is obama taking you in when you all lose are jobs?? I realize some of you do not even pay taxes and expect a refund from taxpayers like me and that is pitiful!! SHAME ON YOU NOBAMA FOLKS!!!

    The larger companies nobama is sticking it to with taxes are the same people feeding your family. You guys are going to starve when you lose the jobs you are not doing very well – I guess nobama will hand you food foods??? What idiots!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  11. Tired of the Nonsense

    to VALERIE –

    why don't you take off the hooded sheet and join the rest of us......if you think McCain is the man for the job after the ascenine decision to choose Palin, then you are either retarded, a racist or both.


    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  12. CitizenAJ

    I really do hope people will exercise their right and privilege to vote and vote the way they are polling. If all things are equal between Senators Obama and McCan, their policies and visions cancel each other out, you have to consider their VP choices as a tie breaker.

    If you truly are a patriot to this country, if you truly put the country "first", if you truly believe in putting the BEST ticket into the white house, then it is obvious which way to vote America. Obama/Biden, because Senator Obama's choice for VP does not put the country at risk and actually brings substance and understanding to the ticket, Sarah Palin does not do that for McCain. She is not going to have an interview or appear on a Sunday morning news program from now until the election. We all know why. She avoids the press every where she goes and only calls in to conservative talk radio shows.

    John McCain made a strategic pick to win an election not strengthen the country and help ALL of America's citizens. This is clear and it is a "present danger".

    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  13. Michelle Marietta

    Happy days are here again......

    Vote early if you can. Vote Obama/Biden

    Every vote needs to be cast for Obama....don't get lazy with the poll #'s

    Happy days are here again.............................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  14. Bill Ayers

    I support Bobama Hussein.

    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  15. Brendan H., San Antonio, TX

    And tonight Obama finishes the job!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  16. Joe

    get ready to PAY PAY PAY

    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  17. Pattie Carlson

    Thank God!!!!!
    We need a good democrat to make up for the past disasterous 8 years. Yahoo!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  18. Jason Hussein, Nashville, Tn.

    well today in TN I put in my vote for the next President of the United States, Barack Hussein Obama.

    October 15, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  19. GeorgiaPeachforObama

    A few weeks ago all I saw was McCain hate ads. Last week I saw some Obama ads and now they are flooding my airwaves and not a McCain ad in site, I don't know if he's out of money or McCain just thinks he doesn't have to spend in GA.

    October 15, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  20. Texas Mama for Obama


    And when everyone VOTES...We will say...


    October 15, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  21. Pua, HI

    Please everyone cast their vote. Those polls don't mean much.

    Obama/Biden 08... I can't wait!

    October 15, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  22. Supporter from the Netherlands

    Obama is the right man for the job, he is full of inspiration and I know that he is going to make a lot of positive changes in America.

    Way to go big man.... love from Holland

    October 15, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  23. Alex Miranda

    Test of characters? Has anybody out there read the recent articles in GQ and Rolling Stone magazines discussing McCain´s character?
    His life of pulling family strings, cheating and deceit make look anybody like a Disney fairy tale.

    October 15, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  24. porkborg

    god, look at all that blue - looks nice!

    October 15, 2008 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  25. Red

    20 days can be a lifetime in Politics. If the McCain camp would simply use some obvious STRATEGERY, you'll gradually see Obama's numbers slip.

    October 15, 2008 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
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