October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)





    October 15, 2008 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  2. Eric from MD

    As salmonella is to food, so is Bush to the Republican Party.
    Now McCain is trying to serve a McPalin meal cooked in the same Bush kitchen.
    I think we need about 8 years of Democratic dissenfectant!

    October 15, 2008 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  3. Joe

    This article is anti democracy. It discourages voting as it implies that Obama has already won Virginia. Why vote if it's already decided?

    October 15, 2008 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  4. joseph

    one more state for Obama 56 to go until everystate is a blue state! YIPEE!

    October 15, 2008 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  5. Zana in AZ

    Even here in McCain country (Arizona) the Obama stickers and signs are everywhere. My state will undoubtedly end up red – again. But there's a lot more blue than there use to be around here. Go Obama!

    October 15, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  6. Steve C - Atlanta, GA

    I won't be happy until Obama gets 60+ percent of the vote on election day......what a message that will send to the Washington establishment.....REAL CHANGE! It will change the way we elect our politiicans for the next 100 years!

    October 15, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  7. Anonymous

    Please Vote!

    October 15, 2008 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  8. VETS4Obama

    Valerie...get a clue!! I imagine you are for 4 more years of the same. This country is in the worst shape it has been since Hoover (another clueless Republican) Why don't you go to Alaska where you can worship your governor and watch her abuse more power?

    October 15, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  9. Brian, Detroit, MI

    I don't know if Obama can win the election with the government's record of stealing the election away from We, the People. We may soon have to take this country back from the government that is destroying it.

    October 15, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  10. Hope

    Sound great... America will be great!!!
    Yes we can


    October 15, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  11. Laszlo in L.A.

    This comes down to people with diplomas versus people living in trailers. If your state has more people living in trailers than people with an education, your state tends to vote Republican. More diplomas than trailers, you vote Democratic.

    What this map says to me is that there are either more diplomas than 4 years ago, or many more people scared of ending up living in a trailer if we don't change leadership!

    Obama/Biden '08

    October 15, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  12. Drew, VA

    As Virginia goes, so does the nation.

    Yeeeeehaaaaa, we're going to vote for Obama and Biden.

    Go Virginia !!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  13. Nancy

    The real fight begins after the election – holding the winner to accomplish what he / she set out to do. In this race, my money's on red! Go John McCain.

    October 15, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  14. Randhir Malik

    I did not believe that OBAMA will carry North Carolina until last week. Now it appears that OBAMA will carry Noth Carolina. What a change the last week has made?

    October 15, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  15. mitch

    barack has ideas. john has warts.

    October 15, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  16. Foxy

    Vote for "That One"

    October 15, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  17. Charles

    That's outstanding im from VA but live in GA I just voted for Obama I wish GA would turn blue also, he will win Savannah I'm sure!

    October 15, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  18. zjd99

    Obama gets stronger every day and McCain gets weaker!
    If Obama carries the 3 states that Quinnipiac says he is leading in (Missouri, Colorado and North Carolina) then he will have over 300 electrol votes .. a mid-size land slide.

    October 15, 2008 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |
  19. Jonathan

    THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!!!! HANG TIGHT, BABY AND KEEP YOUR COOL!!!! I know we still got an uphill battle to go, but that Electoral Map suuuuuuuuure looks good!!!! By the way, I cast my vote for you today!!!!

    As for McShame and Clueless "Barbie"....................I hear they have opening positions available at the local 7-Eleven!!!!

    OBAMA/BIDEN '08 – '12

    October 15, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  20. Chad, Indiana

    I'm just glad the Republican voodoo economics is finnally coming to an end. I hope Indiana goes Obama. Time to start inacting tarriffs against companies that ship jobs overseas. Think they would be less interested in doing so if they new they would have to pay more to get their goods shipped back into the US. That would then put the Chinese communism on the ropes, not to mention putting sweat shops out of buisness!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  21. Know the truth

    Every voter… no matter who you are supporting should google:
    Philip J. Berg esq and Obama.

    You need to read about his lawsuit and how Obama and the DNC are trying to hide it from you. This is not an anti-Obama post, this is a serious issue. This is a pro USA post.

    October 15, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  22. joe

    Yes Obama even the Taliban and other terroriest are for YOU If you win I am pulling all retirement funds IRA and TSP money out regaurdless of the cost and I am buring it in my back yard until your out of office you are not going to donate my hard earned money to your criminal friends, Acorn, Ayres, and democratic wall street slugs and unfortunatly the homeless may vote you in but they will not get a CHANGE!!!! of address because of you. You are just manipulating them for your own gratificating to be president, you and your administration has brain washed america. You will be the first time I am disgraced to be an American. Besides Clinton!!

    October 15, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  23. Colony14Author, Mt Prospect, IL

    Hello, socialism.

    Good-bye, money and liberty.

    October 15, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  24. alan

    now hold on everyone. im as stoed as u guys are but lets face facts. there are still some people who will change thier vote once the curtain closes. it is the sad thing

    October 15, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  25. Karen, Arkansas

    We need to turn this past Clinton Country Blue! Can't believe anyone could take McSame/Failin as a serious pick for the highest office in our USA!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
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