October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Misty

    Yooo hooooo!
    Obama Obama Obama!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  2. Ian

    Can Obama run this country right into the ground?

    YES HE CAN!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  3. mayah

    MY FRIEND VOTED FOR THE FIRST TIME , THIS IS HISTORY...

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  4. aimee

    I plan to party if Obama wins- We need change in this country, not slander or anger!

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  5. Kimberly in Azizona

    virginia in virginia, hate to tell you hun, well actually I am GLAD to tell you, Obama is going to be the president, and there is nothing you or any other redneck can do about it, its OVER!

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  6. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOBAMA

    YEEE HAWWW

    I AM GOING TO VOTE FOR THAT ONE

    GO O AND JOE

    ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITEHOUSE

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  7. Eric

    If you are not in A then you are in A compliment.
    No, Obama is not a muslim, he is a decent family man. Now, put the compliment on that!!

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  8. John

    Let's hope Ohio is next!

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  9. Have a brain

    Anyone with common sense and a sense of pride in the capabilities and promise of this country has no other choice.... Barak Obama and Joe Biden will work wonders for a positive perception of and direction for America. McCain/Palin would be like stepping back into the dark ages...

    October 15, 2008 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  10. Don from Birmingham

    This all looks good, but make sure you go vote! Take nothing for granted! I will never forget the sick feeling I had in 2004. I left my permanently Red State of Alabama to go get out the vote in Florida and drive people to the polls. We thought we were going to win. We had calls from Kerry HQ that Ohio was in the bag. Then the stories of long lines in Ohio and people leaving the polling stations started coming in and then the numbers started coming in and we lost.

    November 4 will be the most important vote you ever make. Don't forget to vote! Stand in line as long as you have to in order to cast your vote! The next 4 years of this Country depends upon it. We will either have a new direction or 4 more years of Republican ruled misery.

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  11. mitch

    to fleas. you are hateful and rude. not to mention an airhead.

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  12. Jamal

    Bush/McCain – More of the same

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  13. Edisto

    This Georgians working to help this state sing the "BLUES" – Obama '08!

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  14. gib

    I was downtown springfield, mo. not a single McCain sign.

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  15. sick n tired

    It appears Valerie needs to get herself a clue!!! Seriously!

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  16. Enough

    Georgia will be an upset! The hue is turning blue.

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  17. LadyRam

    North Carolina is up next, early voting starts tomorrow. Let's turn North Carolina another blue besides Carolina"tarheel" blue, let's turn it Obama blue.

    Obama/Biden '08

    October 15, 2008 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  18. Shawn

    That's what I'm talking about!

    Welcome to the civilized world, Virginia!

    October 15, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  19. REDNECKS LOVE OBAMA

    GREAT NEWS Virginia.... I have 6 people in my family voting for Obama in Virginia..... I have ALREADY voted for Obama in Florida.

    October 15, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  20. Scott L

    Obama is going to lose.

    October 15, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  21. STEVEN V

    Hey Everyone! Take a look at Arizona. John McCain is only winning by 7 percentage points, and with 13 unsure Barack might even take Arizona from McLame!

    October 15, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  22. I'm an idiot

    I am so happy because I am a moron.

    October 15, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  23. Right wing shut up

    RON PAUL '08......oh crap, nm.

    Obama/Biden '08!!

    October 15, 2008 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  24. JWheeler

    Democrats, listen up! The more desperate the Republicans get, the more likely they are to pull some dirty tricks, fraudulent voting practices, and anything they can to steal the election. Now is the time to be vigilent. Vote on election day.

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  25. Francheska

    GOBAMA!! ;-)

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
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