October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. ObamaROCKS!

    WAY TO GO OBAMA!..but folks ,,it ain't over yet...we need to get out the vote...

    This debate tonight is meaningless...just look at the dow today....

    October 15, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  2. Lisa

    Awesome and Wonderful!!!!

    If you continue to do the same thing you will get the same results.

    October 15, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  3. SPT NYC

    This is great news. I think I speak for many Obama supporters in saying 'thank you' to the many Republicans who are putting country before party and crossing partisan lines to support Obama/Biden.

    October 15, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  4. Independent

    hehe that's a very presidential picture. BUT be warned get lazy democrats and LOSE this election! You must call people (through the phone bank on obama's site) get out the vote, donate and convince people who have been mislead by smears. AGAIN let up even for a second and watch the loss come a la 2000

    October 15, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  5. NB

    This is great news for America. People are fed up with the lies from McCain campagin . We need a true leader and that is Obama.

    October 15, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  6. I said Thanks, but No Thanks to another 4 years of g.o.p. corruption, arrogance and incompetence

    I guess Ayers, Acorn and Wright aren't so important, when your 401 K is going doing the tubes.

    Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.

    October 15, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  7. New York

    That's right Obama...keep turning the south blue. Come on Georgia and South Carolina get on board with your southern buddies to the north (NC and Virgina)!!

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  8. Amy For Obama thus For America

    Americaaaaaaaaaaaaa how I love YOU!!

    We CAN DO THIS!!!! YES WE CAN!!!!

    THank you Virginia!
    You have spoken!
    Barack Obama has heard you!
    Together we are gonna bring about CHANGE in this country!
    YES WE CAN!!

    Register people to VOTE!

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  9. Ajay Jain TX, USA

    McSAME can no longer even depend on a long Hail Mary Shot. Its OVER McCain – Palin (the drag VP!)

    Obama – Biden 08/12

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  10. McCain/Palin = Shameful, hateful behaviour

    I'm afraid to believe it. I'll believe it when I see it Nov. 5th. But I am praying like mad!

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  11. Paul DObro

    Obama backers – bon't fall back on your laurels, this race will get closer as Nov 4 approaches (all elections gets closer as election day approaches).

    Work-Work-Work Win!!!! Yes we can!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  12. TheTruthHurts

    They're late with the update. This is old news. Nothing matters, but the results posted November 5th and hopefully no Supreme Court intervention.

    Get back to work! Vote Obama/Biden. Vote now if you can. My absentee is already in.

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  13. right source

    WHY????????? Today isn't November 4th!!

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  14. Pete

    I guess they finally HAD to change it from toss up to lean. We all knew it was coming.

    Obama-Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  15. Kristy in FLORIDA

    DON'T BE TOO CONFIDENT, MY FELLOW AMERICANS! KEEP SPREADING THE LOVE AND TRUTH AND WE'LL BE BLESSED ENOUGH TO HAVE OBAMA AND BIDEN IN THE WHITE HOUSE!

    OBAMA-BIDEN '08/'12!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  16. Norcal DM

    The voters are speaking their minds, and they are seeing a major difference between the two senators. One is speaking of policy, and of a new direction(Senator Barack Obama), the other is speaking fear and attempting to play to ppls hatreds to the unknown(Senator John McCain). While this is not a clear victory, this is showing that people are starting to make their decisions, and showing a better understanding of the junior senator from Illinois.

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  17. Republican voting Democrat 2008

    polls do not validate a doggone thing... People need to register and then vote on election day or earlier..that will ensure the polls are indeed correct....
    however, if this CNN estimation is valid in and of itself, then heck, let's kick out Bush and his farce of a policy(s) and get this country back in order...Darn it (wink)

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  18. gallimimus

    Finally, America is starting to pull it's head out of the sand. Only a couple more months and we will be done with, Bush/McCain.

    October 15, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  19. brian

    About time. RCP has had Virginia leaning Obama for weeks now.

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  20. steve

    You cannot fool us anymore Republicans! We are on to you and we want change!
    GO OBAMA – WE ARE WITH YOU IN OHIO!

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  21. RCLGuard

    This is great news! People are not falling for the character attacks and lies anymore. This is when American wakes up and looks to change. It's a great day but we need to stay cautious.

    Obama/Biden 08 12!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  22. Kish from Britain

    THIS IS FOR ALL BARACK OBAMA SUPPORTERS

    "DONT GET TO EXCITED............GO OUT AND CAST THOSE VOTES EARLY AND HELP OTHERS TO CAST THEIRS VOTES"

    I CAN SMELL SOMETHING NICE COOKING AND ITS CALLED VICTORY.....................................MAKE US SPECTATORTS IN THE WORLD PROUD TO CALL AMERICA THE GREATEST NATION ON MOTHER EARTH

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  23. Shane

    It's about time CNN's map reflects reality. Obama is easily over 270 EVs.

    Obama/Biden '08/'12

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  24. Nimi from NY

    God please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I wish the election were today. Thank you (God)for small mercies. I just hope we hold un to this lead until election day.

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  25. RDS

    It's not over until Nov. 5. Please go vote! If you find your name not on the voter rolls when you go vote ask for a PROVISIONAL BALLOT. Let's transfer this enthusiasm to the polls.

    Obama/Biden '08

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
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