October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)

    It is no small wonder.
    Here is quoting The Kiplinger Tax Letter on the two candidates' tax policies:
    "Most Filers wodl benefit from Obama's Plan" they then describe in detail why, but it is too long for here.
    "Obama wants high-incomers to pay more tax. . . .(explains that taxes on dividends and long-term gains increases to 20% for joint filers over $250K and singles over $200K and income tax rate would increase on filers over $373,100, and those making more than $250K would pay more social security tax) . . .Middle and low-incomers would fare better"
    "By contrast, filers in the upper brackets get more tax cuts under McCain"
    Nuff said.

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  2. Georgia Gal

    JayinNewHampshire, I've been thinking the same thing. It's the same with Bernanke and sometimes Paulson. Anytime they open their mouth the market crashes. Can they just please be quiet??

    Gene, I agree ... I've always voted on the issues and the individual candidate and never solely on party affiliation. I'm thrilled that so many people really do seem to be doing that this year.

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  3. Irish

    I've lived in Virginia for the past 11 years and always found it strange that in national elections it was always a red state, but as for itself, it has chosen some amazing democrats as Governor.

    Wish choice I do believe.....on with the new......

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  4. SD

    YES YES YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    KEEP IT UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    COME ON AMERICA........YOU CAN DO IT!!!!!!

    I LOVE VIRGINIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  5. Navy Chief for Obama

    This is refeshing news!!! We have to keep supporting in every possible way....

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  6. Bruce

    the only poll that matters is 11/4/08 and if not everyone gets out and votes then the change we all want and nedd will not come about.
    Do not get over confident,m make sure you vote, and get others to vote.
    The waits may be long but the results will be worth the wait.
    Do not sit home..and for those who do not vote...for whatever reason..then in my opinion you have no right to complain about whomever is elected.
    Get out and vote.

    October 15, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  7. Tim in Seattle

    Until Nov 4th gets here and the electoral votes are counted its not over...

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  8. The best birthday gift I'll receive on Nov 4th is to be able to say "President Barack Obama!"

    I pray that everyone is honest in their polling and is certain to go out and vote during early voting or general election on Nov 4th.

    It is IMPERATIVE that we all vote in order to ensure that Barack Obama is put into office. This country needs it, and if some people for once would just put aside their pride, their routines, their hatred, their denial, and actually zero in on their needs and what's best for this country, then they will see that they need him to.

    We can do this. We can make history. We can change the state of our country. We can be proud of who we are and what we stand for.

    PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE get out there and VOTE!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  9. Herman In LA

    Good, bring up Ayers, Wright, or anyone else you want McCain your done.

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  10. Sammy

    All the 'lean' states are more or less in the margin of error. So while its good news for Obama its by no means something to count on. But then it does mean more money has to be spent there for defense. Then that also means money to counter it. So its certainly interesting.

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  11. wwf

    This is not the time to get over confident! Get out the vote. Remind people to vote. Give them rides. Lets not let this one get away from us because some think that it is in the bag.

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  12. Leah DiMarco, Texas

    It will be wonderful to see President Obama in the White House in January!

    O and Joe '08

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  13. Tony




    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  14. liz, from MO

    Good for Obama/Biden ticket after all the smears for McCain Campaign. People are angry about real issues affecting them and not what a professor at University of Chicago (Ayers), who sits on Education boards in Chicago (chosen by a McCain supporter -Annenburg), did years ago when Obama was in grade school! Get real!

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  15. Blue all the way.....


    Dear God, please let this be our year.....I am keeping my fingers crossed....

    OBAMA all the way to the white house!

    VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  16. Garnet, Corning

    Just remember, America, make sure you vote!!!! Let's get all of them out of office!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  17. Don

    It's moving in the right direction. All the Obama supporters have to get out on Nov. 4 and actually VOTE to make it a reality.

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  18. Tony, LA

    This is the first of many former republican strongholds we will be turning BLUE this year!

    October 15, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  19. Lawrence in Denver

    Even after all the smear tactics of the GOP, Obama is still on the path to a landslide victory.

    As for the many Republicans who are posting comments regarding Obama's ties to ACORN as well as ties to Ayers which makes him a terrorist (eventhough Obama was 8 years old during this time)....what about the Republicans who put 'DUBYA' in the White House? Does that make you repugs above the law war criminals who seek Executive Privelege at every turn?

    Think about it.

    I choose 'THAT ONE'!

    Obama/Biden 08'

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  20. nalini


    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  21. Heidi From OKC

    My one fear is that people are going to think they will not have to vote because so many more will be out there.

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  22. tishoogle

    GO OBAMA GO! We need YOU and BIDEN in the WHITE HOUSE!

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  23. Lucy

    I feel a victory lap coming!! Can everyone spell L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E?
    Start practicing!!

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  24. Anonymous

    To all Obama-Biden supporters don't become complacent because this election is a long way from being over.

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  25. Steve, Jacksonville, Fl

    Come on guys. Time to stop spreading the "too close to call" myth. It's over and you've known it for a long time.

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
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