October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. mike fr. FL

    Wow. I hope this doesn't lead to complacency on election day. Still have to show up @ the polls Nov. 4th. Like Obama said, all we need to do is vote!!! I can hardly wait.

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  2. Kate

    3 weeks is a looooooooooong time. Don't become complacent Obama supporters! Keep volunteering, keep donating and above all VOTE! Go Obama!

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  3. The T

    Glad to see the country is looking for a Leader and not an Washington insider.

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  4. voter

    go virgina. I knew you can bring it home for us. Yes. keep up the good work. Obama 08

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  5. McCain is TOAST!

    Oh SNAP!

    It's time for McCain to perform another gimmick and suspend his campaign until Cheney recovers from his Frankenstein shock treatment.

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  6. janet, ohio

    I hope you people are happy with what you get when you get it. This guy is slimier than Clinton, and I didn't think that was possible. We'll be needing that border fence soon - to keep peolpe in the United Socialist States of America. God save us.

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  7. A Boston

    God bless America! We're coming together in numbers to regain control of our nation and steer it in the right direction.


    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  8. Observant Voter from Texas

    All Obama voters...STAY FOCUSED! DON'T GET COMPLACENT; VOTE ON NOV. 4TH!!!! As Senator Obama stated “We just need TO VOTE, that’s what we NEED TO DO.”

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  9. Kelby from Houston, TX

    I wish TEXAS would turn blue. If TEXAS turned Blue and we Elected

    I know why the voters are swinging more towards Obama. This is all due to those angry and hateful people that show up at Palin/McCain rallies. People are sitting at home looking at these rallies and they realize that the McCain campaign is drawing ignorant hateful people and bringing the worst out of them.

    For me, it proves that racism is dying in America. Black people may find themselves victims of racism, but you can tell that White people don't want to look, sound or act racist. This is a practice that holds US back as a people and both White and Black people can do better together in this great nation than we do apart. This proves to me, as a black person, that there will be no Bradley effect this election. The intellegent choice is Obama

    THAT ONE '08

    October 15, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  10. ez

    Early voting is the way to go.

    Registered Republican "voted" Obama/Biden 08

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  11. The best bday gift for me on Nov 4th is "President Barack Obama!"

    I pray that everyone is honest in their polling and is certain to go out and vote during early voting or general election on Nov 4th.

    It is IMPERATIVE that we all vote in order to ensure that Barack Obama is put into office. This country needs it, and if some people for once would just put aside their pride, their routines, their hatred, their denial, and actually zero in on their needs and what's best for this country, then they will see that they need him to.

    We can do this. We can make history. We can change the state of our country. We can be proud of who we are and what we stand for.

    PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE get out there and VOTE!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  12. hometowndemocrat

    Being a native North Dakotan I would LOVE to see NoDak go BLUE!!!! That has never happened in my lifetime and it would do my heart good to see my state turn blue on the big map!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  13. Tony


    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  14. Eric

    Gotta love it!!! Hey Obama supporters, don't forget to vote. We won't see this result on Nov 4th unless we all get out there!

    Obama 08/12

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  15. Betty

    Calling all Democrats – do not get complacent! VOTE on November 4!!!

    Obama/Biden '08!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  16. ac

    I am just afraid they would change their mind at the time they have to vote!

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  17. Brent

    Only 96 more days to go until our National Nightmare is over.

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  18. The Republican Conscience

    By any measure, Colorado should be 'leaning Obama'.

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  19. Sam

    I guess it is the end America. Obama will turn you into an ugly socialist far-left liberal country. It is the end of prosperity. This guy is really smart and was able to deceive the people despite his ugly radical history. Obama is a talk-talk guy and has never prooven to be other than a slick partisan politician who really gives good speeches which i think is the only good thing he will do in his presidency. Pitty america..!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  20. Eric from Columbus

    Elections are too long, no one should be able to campaign until 4 months before the election, this two year junk is getting old. and especially in a 2nd term election when the president spends two years just trying to get re-elected and does nothing else.

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  21. Kyle

    How can any of these polls be trusted?! There are so many ways they can be falsified I see no use for polls except to sway opinion and dispirit voters. Anyone who actually believes any poll has just been politiconned.

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  22. Ted

    Yes! One negative attack, one more state for Obama. Let's see if McCain will do it tonight.

    October 15, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  23. joe

    I cannot wait until your guy Obama gets in and the Economy tanks even more. If you believe a socialist can cure this country you have all been drinking the kool-aid. It is a sad state of affairs when this great county is becomming more like Europe which depends on the govenment to provide everything. Most of you on this blog probably are the 50% of Americans who do not pay taxes and are looking for a free ride.

    I am a small business and I can tell you that once Obama gets in and raises my taxes I will be forced to lay off up to 2 of my employees to compensate for higher business taxes. So all of you Obama supporters who are pulling the lever for Obama you might be pulling the lever for unemployment. Heck but who cares, your guy will get in

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  24. banderson

    Get out the Vote for Obama-Biden, don't let the Republicans use their deception, misdirection and propaganda machine again to steal this election. GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  25. Mike Bulmer

    Congrats CNN on being the first in the MSM to push Obama past 270.

    You're still about 90 EVs behind what the prediction markets and election projection sites are posting though. Don't hold back.

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23