October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama


Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) - For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. thomas from Alabama

    Hopefully on Nov. 4th people will vote this way. Maybe for once this country will vote for the most intelligent candidate and not vote for the person they would drink a beer with.

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  2. chuck


    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  3. susanne

    THAT IS THE WAY IT SHOULD BE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    OBAMA-BIDEN 2008 / 2012

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  4. S. Boatman

    This Is Great News! Dont Get Complacent Obama Supporters! Vote No Matter What! Mccain Has Us Right Where He Wants Us So We Have To Work Hard All The Way To The Finish Line!

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  5. N, Saint Louis, MO

    We can not let our guard down yet. Let's keep working hard. I am optmistic but still nervous.
    Obama-Biden 08/12

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  6. FreeNLovIt

    You know it takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush.

    I do like Obama/Clinton ticket. Obama is think-tank and he thinks twice before he acts. Clinton is spontaneous and ready anytime, and anywhere. If these two were on one ticket, an Obama judgement, powered by the visions of the Clintons, is the perfect ticket to SAVE America.

    Like I said before, only the best of the best can save America. There are so many talented Americans. I hope Obama puts them to good use.

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  7. karen-phoenix

    I pray for Obama/Biden all day!!!! I've been a republican for over 40 years and the republican have destroyed MY country for my grandchildren!!! I'm a white, working women living in AZ and I do believe even Arizona may go BLUE!!!!
    God Bless Obama/Biden and their families!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  8. Another O and Joe supporter

    Have they put HER on the train back to Alaska yet? Please someone get her out of here! McCain just go away with grace and what dignity you have left for yourself and America.

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  9. Pat

    Can't wait to send Palin on the "Bridge to Nowhere" and leave her there. Can you imagine Palin being the President, and Todd being the President as well. McCain has shown us that he is willing to gamble the future of these precious United States on Palin. He should never have been the Republican nominee. His decision prompted a lifelong Republican to change party affiliation forever!

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  10. VB Lincoln Park NJ

    Is this hopefully a sign that America is finally growing up?

    I HOPE SO!

    OBAMA-BIDEN ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  11. Chelle in Fla

    Let's not get in over our head Obama supports! We just have to buckle up, stay focused and see what gives

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  12. Barbara - 65 yr old white female in NC

    I'm voting early tomorrow for Obama/Biden. Then I'm going to see if I can help at the polls, or drive the disabled to the polls, or whatever. I've got to do something to help.

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  13. Franky

    Now that's cra-zy!! You know, I understand now that Virginia is a little bit more diverse but come on, that's just crazy! If the GOP doesn't win Virginia, is like the Cubs winning the World Series...there's no excuse!

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  14. Carlos

    Yes we will..
    To bad I am not going to see Sarah anymore I was starting to get used to the idea of joker in the White House.

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  15. LLM from MD

    It's not over yet and yes, OBAMA and his campaign are still working hard because they know it's not over. BUT this is good news to read!!

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  16. gman

    Hello, Houston....we have a problem.

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  17. David

    What we are seeing is the entire country moving toward Obama and not a "snapshot". Perhaps CNN would like to see a closer race, but it will not likely happen.

    Winner: Obama. I am predicting it.

    October 15, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  18. (Former) Lifelong Republican for Obama, Columbia, TN

    This is very encouraging trend in Virginia. I hope and pray that the citizen of Virginia are waking up to the reality that Obama-Biden are the best choice in this election!

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  19. JB

    blah blah blah

    you might as well use this as a headline – CNN predicts Obama rules the world, parts the red sea and cures cancer

    get out of this guys butt. You are only angering people. Report the news don't try to make it.

    We know you want him to win, we know you all have instructions to push the dems agenda and sabotage McCain's camp. He is doing a fine job by himself, he doesn't need CNN to help.

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  20. mike fr. FL

    Boy, oh boy. I guess McCain really has us where he wants us now.

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  21. TiminBklyn

    These are just projections. So don't gloat about Obama being ahead, this is still a very close race and there is still tonight's debate. We've got 3 more weeks people! Anything can happen!

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  22. bruno nana

    it is just a matter of time.let change this country and move forward.
    yes we can
    Obama/Biden 2008

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  23. Christopher

    I'm ready for Obama – I'm going to quit my job, stop paying my house payments and let all you other working people pay for me to do nothing! Socialism at its finest.

    The CNN poll of polls is the biggest example of liberal media known – let's call the race over before it's time to vote.

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  24. Dan, Mpls

    If you can't even run a campaign, how can you run a country? I think people are finally figuring this out.

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  25. JPM

    What's with the rush to name a victor? Isn't the election still 3 weeks off? From what I can tell, your polls are very limited. I know I've never been contacted in all of this time nor has anyone I know, so that begs to question who are you questioning in your polls. Sounds like the media is trying once again to decide who our next president will be. How about leaving it up to the people as it was intended by our constitution instead of trying to sway voters to your agenda!

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
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