October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Samuel

    I am still waiting to hear McCain downfall in Texas. It CAN happen or should i say it WILL happen sooner that Nov 4th. Let's go america!!! We can do this and it is OK.

    Obama/Biden 2008

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  2. CD

    Wait for it buddies... Barry wonder is actually going to push the button tonight on McCain, you know, the temperament button to show America that McCain is a ticking time bomb in the last seconds of going off.

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  3. Tony

    EVEN MCCAIN AND PALIN'S CAMPAIGN POSTERS ARE BLUE!

    DUH!

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  4. Phil the Voter

    Guess we really don't need an election. The pollsters and media have chosen for us! Thank you. Thank You. Thank you.! I really don't know how to vote and I'm obviously too stupid to make a decision.

    Anybody remember the primaries when the Press declared it would be between Hillary and Guiliani? Polls are worth about as much as my 401K.. Thank you big government.

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  5. james

    i'm glad people are finally coming to their senses i'm sure mccain will put his foot in his mouth again tonight by mentioning that obama has ties with terrorist yeah that's really going to help our economy nobody wants to hear his BS he's done nothing for the country just like bush has done nothing for this country OBAMA-BIDEN 08'

    October 15, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  6. Bill

    Still time for VA to come back to the good guys.

    October 15, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  7. James

    HOLD IT DOWN OBAMA/BIDEN!! WE ALMOST HOME!!

    October 15, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  8. Kansas for Obama

    Keep Pushing On, it ain't over yet. With 20 days left, we have no room to send in the second or third string. The Obama team needs to keep the starters in and run up the score to an unquestionable-uncontested victory.

    I won't breath easy till January when "President Barack Obama" gets sworn in.

    October 15, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  9. Steve

    What I find so revolting about Palin is the notion that to be critical of the United States is somehow anti-American.

    October 15, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  10. tigerakabj

    McCain should check Texas too. Obama is running ads in Dallas.

    And this map does not include people who have registered this year and people with cell phones.

    Obama/Biden 2008/2012.

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  11. In Kansas

    That is scary when the media has the power to determine who will be elected before the election takes place.

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  12. Kiah G

    Ok NJ was lean Obama all this time...CNN get a clue...

    Welcome to what the rest of the world's small political forecasters ALREADY have known.

    Obama/Biden 08 & 12!

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  13. Kevin

    I truly believe that America is ready to turn the page on the wrong policy for this country and we need a leader with the forsight to lead. I know that alot of Republican like to say that Sen. Obama has very little experience to be President, if only they knew how wrong they are. Look at their party leader President Bush, if anyone thought that Bush had experience because he was a Governer, just look at Sarah Palin she is a governer and she is just as STUPID as G. Bush. I would have voted for McShame not now, all he want to talk about is nonsense and not the Issues, and his judgement with picking Sarah Palin a complete and utter MORON!!!! Yo go Obama/Biden all the way to the White House.

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  14. bill canada

    When Obama pulls the troops from Iraq , where will you get your oil? We Canadians and hope you have started making those windmills.

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  15. Virginia in Virginia

    CNN polls are a joke..fat chance,

    the Mason Dixon polls are always more accurate here in Virginia- McCain by 4-5 %

    Those are the real facts!

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  16. McCain is TOAST!

    Is it me or does it looks like those red states are being suffocated with the rest of America?

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  17. I TOLDYOUSO

    McCain made three monumental mistakes during his run-up and nomination for president. First of all, he backed the IDIOT in the rush to war in Iraq. (anyone with a brain the size of a pea could see that Iraq was no danger to the U.S. and that the public was being fed a pack of lies) Secondly, He did not distance himself from the IDIOT early and often enough to avoid being cast as an IDIOT clone. And thirdly, and maybe just as important as the first two, he chose that next-to-imbecilic Palin as a running mate. The minute she opened her mouth everyone could see that she was three bases short of a home run. Obama has a cakewalk to the Presidency and McCain can blame only two people – himself and the IDIOT.

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  18. Valerie

    WELCOME TO SOCIALISM. OBAMA IS A JOKE. BIDEN IS A JOKE. HOOVER PART 2, NEW DEAL PART 2. WELFARE FOR EVERYBODY. REMEMBER, 95% OF TAX BREAKS, THAT'S A FARSE IN ITSELF. MORE THAN HALF OF AMERICANS BARELY PAY INCOME TAXES AS IT IS. BUT YET, WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO TAKE FROM THE BIG OLD RICH, AND GIVE IT TO THE POOR THAT I'M SORRY, JUST DON'T DESERVE IT.

    MCCAIN, YOU BETTER TAKE IT TO HIM, AND TAKE IT TO HIM HARD TONIGHT. YOU NEED TO TELL HIM WHY DEMOCRATS DEFEATED ANY CHANCE TO PUT MORE REGULATION ON FANNIE AND FREDDIE. WHAT HAPPENED? THEY WENT UNDER!! AND NOW WE ARE BAILING ALL THOSE PEOPLE WHO SHOULD NEVER HAVE GOTTEN A MORTAGE THEY DIDN'T DESERVE!!

    BARNEY FRANK IS A LIAR, NANCY PELOSI IS A LIAR, ALL DEMOCRATS ARE LIARS.

    October 15, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  19. OS

    I AM STILL BAFFLED AS TO WHY STILL OVER 40% VOTERS OF THIS NATION WANT TO VOTE AND SUPPORT THE PARTY THAT WAS IN POWER FOR THE LAST EIGHT YEARS – THE OUTCOME OF WHICH IS AS CLEAR AS BLACK AND WHITE.

    October 15, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  20. k in Texas

    It isnt over yet and now is definitely not the time to celebrate. We are almost there, but we still have work to do. Let us get out there and vote... NO EXCUSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    If CHANGE is to be, WE have to be that catalyst.

    October 15, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  21. ohio

    welcome to blue side the real side our good/smart Americans

    October 15, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  22. vaforloversofOBAMA

    Not a surprise given recent trends but as a resident of the Commonwealth, couldn't be happier!!! WARNER for Senate and OBAMA for President!! Who would've thought that VA would have such a role in such a historical election!!! Hooray!!!! :)

    October 15, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  23. patricia Modica

    Change is coming for sure!!!!

    GO OBAMA!

    October 15, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  24. The race is not over

    Obama supporters, we have to push harder. we still have about 20 days to go and direction might change if we are too proud over these statistics.

    We NEED TO PUSH HARDER TILL 4 Nov. We need to make sure every O is going to vote. We need to work Harder. Making sure this race is worth all we have donated and supported OBAMA.

    YES WE CAN DO MORE TILL NOV. 4TH.

    October 15, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  25. Jack

    Democrats could have run Charles Manson as their candidate.....and won! Reason....people always want to blame the fortunes and mis-fortunes of the nation on the President. Hello! It's the Congress, stupid. You deserve what you're going to get.....a president like Jimmy Carter (who, by the way, started the housing crisis with his welfare agendas).

    You'll get your chance Obla-bla; don't screw it up!

    October 15, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
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