October 15th, 2008
05:01 PM ET
6 years ago

Electoral Map Update: A red state swings toward Obama

CNN

Check out the latest CNN electoral map estimate.

(CNN) – For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House. The hotly contested state of Virginia moves from “tossup” to “lean Obama.” North Dakota moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain,” and New Jersey moves from “lean Obama” to “safe Obama.”

As a result, 13 electoral votes swing from the tossup column to the Obama column. Obama now leads McCain by 103 electoral votes, up from 90 when the CNN Electoral Map was last updated on October 7. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 277 electoral votes and John McCain 174. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Obama continues to make gains on the Electoral Map - and chip away at McCain's territory - thanks to results from states that typically support Republican presidential candidates.

Election Center: Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls - including our own - now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Election Center: View the latest state polls

"Of course, it's important to remember that the CNN Electoral Map is a snapshot in time," said Silverleib. "We are not predicting an Obama win on Election Day. We still have twenty days to go, and that's an eternity in politics."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (574 Responses)
  1. Latina for Obama (nj)

    THE CHANGE WE NEED,THE CHANGE WE WANT!!!!!!

    I sent in my absentee ballot on friday...and I voted for "THAT ONE"

    October 15, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  2. Mark, Hagerstown, MD

    OBAMA-BIDEN ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2008 !!

    MAVERICKS – GO BACK TO YOUR "DUDE RANCHES" IN ALASKA & ARIZONA !!

    October 15, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  3. JL

    LOL; but GOP is never wrong or ever does wrong. Right...............GOP has totally ran this country into the deepest parts of hell. This is such a SAD country right now, I truly don't see things getting better. Who might I ask will pay this $53 count them TRILLION. What is really funny to me is white America (not stating they won't vote for Obama cause..............................."he Black") well check out the color of your money not the credit-cards but actual cash...................IT'S GREEN folks and so is mine. How stupid!

    October 15, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  4. Terry, Dallas Texas

    No!
    Do not push Obama's name on the ballot and then straight Democrat as this may void your vote. If you vote straight Democratic you will already be voting for all Democrats on the ballot INCLUDING Obama. If you don't want to vote straight Democratic but want to vote Obama then vote for him and then the other candidates one by one.

    October 15, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  5. Lawrence in Denver

    Anonymous – "To all Obama-Biden supporters don't become complacent because this election is a long way from being over."

    To 'Anonymous', you are correct! This election is a long way from being over. This just gives Obama more time to shift ALL 50 states, including Arizona and Alaska, to BLUE!

    Obama/Biden!!!!!!

    ~Lawrence in Denver

    October 15, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  6. Emily

    Go Obama, don't loose focus. Fight for us. We need you and Joe.

    October 15, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  7. Luis

    GO VIRGINIA – GO- I LOVE VIRGINIA. This country is moving in the right direction. We need to regain the respect of the world. McBush brings death and economic disparity.

    October 15, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  8. mitch

    if you noticed,down the center, the republicans are dividing the country.

    October 15, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  9. Colorado for Obama

    Time to wrap it up McCain and send Pain back to Alaska to face her ethics charges.

    October 15, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  10. Tony

    IN MCCAIN'S OWN WORDS, IT'S TIME TO "TURN THE PAGE" ON MCCAIN AND PALIN.

    HE IS TOAST AND PALIN'S 15 MINUTES ARE JUST ABOUT UP!

    October 15, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  11. Obama-TX

    Polls – who believe them. They have mislead voters for years.

    Obama/Biden – keep pushing the GET OUT TO VOTE STRATEGY!!

    October 15, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  12. MissouriMom

    Next up, Missouri!

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  13. Amy For Obama thus For America

    Americaaaaaaaaaaaaa how I love YOU!!

    We CAN DO THIS!!!! YES WE CAN!!!!

    THank you Virginia!
    You have spoken!
    Barack Obama has heard you!
    Together we are gonna bring about CHANGE in this country!
    YES WE CAN!!

    Register people to VOTE!

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  14. Yes. We can.

    "They said this day would never come. They said our sites were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned, to ever come together around a common purpose." – Barack Obama

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  15. Stan

    Who's up big in the polls and in electoral votes?

    That One.

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  16. democrats /PA

    well if the white people or so dumb
    let them pick obama
    as a vet he will never be my boss or pres'
    i'll never slow him any respect or trust him

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  17. Joe in Vermont

    "It ain't over, till it's over", but looks like the GOP "Nattering Nabobs of Negativism" (with apologies to Spiro Agnew) and their negative ads and attacks on Obama are backfiring big time.

    One last shot tonight and it had better be the performance of McCain's career. Advice is take Obama and the points!

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  18. HERE WE GO

    HAVE ANYNOE NOTICE THAT MONDAY WHEN OB WAS TALKING THE WALL STREETS DOW WAS UP, BUT WHEN MCCAIN CAME OUT AND STARTED TALKING THE DOW WENT DOWN THEN BUSH COMES OUT AND IT WENT UNDER,PLEASE NOT THAT THE WORLD IS TALKING AND THEY WANT CHANGE AS WELL.

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  19. virginia4barack

    i told you VA VA BABY RICHMOND FOR BARACK OBAMA oh also somebody let me know why palin never answers hard questions like the todd palin for AIP thing ? or who is us whn she said barack dont see the us like us? hmmmmm or the she never violated a law but broke ethincs codes or the sambo thing at the diner ??? and who is joe six pack and the nascar dad ? oh but who cares VA IS FOR BARACK

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  20. randy - northern VA

    The last VA article I didnt get my message posted :(.
    Randy here from Northern VA.. it's a beautiful blue sky day out, I am wearing my blue shirt and drinking my pepsi.
    Dont worry yall, we got VA covered.

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  21. Blue By You

    NO CELEBRATION. VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE

    OBAMA/BIDEN

    October 15, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  22. Vincent, Great Lakes, Illinois

    Everyone please keep a cool head. The polls are just that, polls. If you get over confident, you lose.

    Everyone needs to keep on working. We do not know how the tide will turn when the voters go into that booth. What they say when they are polled and how they vote may be two different things.

    I wouldn't celebrate until the 5th of November...

    October 15, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  23. Laszlo in L.A.

    What's exciting to see is how ethnic diversity and voter registration is altering the demographics of so many states. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina are no longer necessarily bastions of White, rural, conservative values.

    October 15, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  24. Proud to be American

    America wants change the last seven years has proven to 95% of Americans are looking for change .... red or blue change must come and it will be with Obama and Biden 2008!

    October 15, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  25. Dandelion.

    I love you Obama!!

    October 15, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
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