October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Latina for Obama (nj)

    VOTE!!! VOTE!!! PLEASE GO OUT AND VOTE!!

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  2. Tomkat

    Think about your children and grandchildren when voting over the next week. Do you want them to inherit more of this Republican mess? Creating fear in Americans is their main strategy. Don't be fooled Americans.

    Vote Obama/Biden

    -Tomkat-

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  3. Can't wait!

    This is so funny!!

    The McCain camp isn't very smart..the more attacks they make, the bigger the lead Obama gets in swing states and national polls.

    I guess McCain and Palin want Barack to win because they are making themselves look worse and worse. They don't even talk about how they're going to solve the nation's economic problems.

    All attack, no substance.

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  4. David

    The government is for the people, by the people. The Republicans are against government. Figure that one out for yourself.

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  5. Kingslough

    OMG the titanic withe rethugs in it is sinking at a fast pace. Anybody! Anyone! Go save the sinking ship!! Not! We might throw afew life savers and come aboard the strong unsinkable ship of the democrats with Obama being the intelligent captain and Biden the co-captain who will navigate this ship to a safer AMERICA.

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  6. ralph

    McCain claims that he is closing in on Obama, and yet he still increaces his attacks. If McCain were winning like he claim he was, then there would not be any need for attacks.

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  7. AmyO

    I just voted for Obama! Unfortunately I live in a deep red state, but I'm hoping there will be record turn out for Obama!

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  8. This is hilarious!!

    The McCain camp isn't very smart..the more attacks they make, the bigger the lead Obama gets in swing states and national polls.

    I guess McCain and Palin want Barack to win because they are making themselves look worse and worse. They don't even talk about how they're going to solve the nation's economic problems.

    All attack, no substance.

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  9. Donna from Colorado Springs

    This is excellent news to democrats in Colorado! We have always been in the minority and I'm so happy to see the tide is turning. I feel the need to apologize to everyone for statements made by the holier than thou Focus on the Family in my town of Colorado Springs. They do not reflect the vast majority of us that live here. Please don't judge Colorado Springs because of the hate filled diatribes coming out of such a bigoted organization. They are so afraid of change of any kind. The republican Christian right has ran things around here for so long and they're terrified that they will lose their power in Washington!

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  10. bridgette

    I for one will be glad when November 5th gets here. I am an Obama supporter, but, I am sick and tired of all of this. I think if this goes on any longer we are going to see ugliness in this country like we have not seen in quite some time. It's maddening.

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  11. Sarah- ARIZONA

    Ps: VOTE even if the forecast is crappy. even if the line is long. If we dont vote our future will be dire and frustrating.

    VOTE OBAMA 08

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  12. OHIO FOR OBAMA

    GO OBAMA. LETS TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK FROM THE LOSERS. WHICH IS mcsame and pitbull in lipstick(her words).

    October 29, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  13. Alex

    I voted last week for Obama in TX. I know it's not a state he's trying to win, but it doesn't matter. The more we vote, the more we show that he does have a mandate from the American people. Go OBAMA!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  14. chris in boulder

    SO PROUD OF MY HOME STATE! GO COLORADO!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  15. John McCain JUST DOESN'T GET IT

    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008
    BARACK THE VOTE 2008

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  16. Warren

    Obama got my vote 2day

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  17. Liberated!

    NOW MCRAGE WILL GET EVEN ANGRIER.....BABYLON, YOUR KINGDOM IS FALLING!!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  18. voted in WI

    Look at the most recent poll in Arizona on the Election Tracker...McCain 46, Obama 44. McCain is losing more and more ground in his home state! McCain losing there would send a real message to the repubs!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  19. Mike

    On a related note, a site just went up (http://www.fit2vote.com) that enables people to vote for their candidate, but first presents them with a voter fitness test that measures their knowledge of U.S. government, politics, and the 2008 presidential candidates' positions on issues.

    On this site votes are weighted by test score so people with a reasonable understanding of government, politics, and candidate positions have a stronger voice in the election.

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  20. John in Minneapolis

    It's good to see that Obama has a decent lead this many days out from the election. I hope that this lead translates into a mandate at the polls.

    It's funny, I keep thinking every time we have an election cycle that I've seen the worst campaign tactics I will surely ever see....and then the candidates surprise me all over again.

    I don't know exactly who the advisers are that keep telling repub candidates to go negative negative negative, but this year more than most it really seems to be backfiring. I really hope that means that the voters are getting smarter and a bit less gullible when fed campaign lies.

    I'm really just waiting for the Republcan party to drop the "N" word in reference to Obama. That would seal their fate for about 100 years.

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  21. heinz

    All friens of America around the globe hope the Obama is going to win! Go Obama!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  22. Fed Up Independent

    I feel a breath of fresh air coming. I am so, so very tired of Bush and the horrific legacy he is going to leave. Then I look at McCain and Palin and see Bush all over again. Obama/Biden will unite whilst McCain and Palin will continue to tear down this great country. Vote, vote, vote Obama/Biden and lets get on with the healing!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  23. avmn

    Stop the hate!
    Obama 08!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  24. fred

    Go Obama, I think it will be cool to see how well the European Social model works in America!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  25. ML

    I hope Obama wins and wins big. Regardless of the lies McCain is telling, Obama is really the best choice for our country this time around.

    Out of curiosity, how far ahead in the polls does Obama have to be before CNN stops promoting McCain? There have only been 3 positive articles on the ticker about Obama today, 2 of them being polls. While there have been 15 about McCain or Palin, all campaign rhetoric.

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
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