October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Nelly

    That was very unfair news coverage toward senator McCain from CNN standpoint.

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  2. SKI

    GO GO GO GO
    Go and Vote
    Vote for BO

    YES WE CAN

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  3. Sarah.....and my last name isn't Palin!

    Electoral college is what matters now.

    Voted for change in Texas!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  4. Michael

    VIVA COLORADO and VIVIA OBAMA!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  5. bruce

    Get out and vote, i ahve already told my boss that my wife and I are going to be at the poll at 7am when it opens here in PA, and if there is a line at that time i may be late for work...he said that was fine that this election is important. I am 54 and I will be casting my vote for Obama...
    He offers hope which is what we need, while McCain offers negative feeling and thughts. McCain has never expalined what or how he would do things, or what he would do. i am tired of the negative campaign he has run.
    Everyone get out and vote. the future of our country depends on you.

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  6. Tarsha

    I am soooooo excited that he's gaining more ground in other states! I'm from VA and I live in a very staunch-republican area, and I can't stand how ignorant these people are!!!! Barack Obama all the way!!! He's going to bring change to this nation!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  7. Enitan

    Keep matching until the last voting place is closed.

    Yes we can, we are almost there 6 days to go and counting.

    We thee people are finally finally going to be heard.

    We will finally shot Rush the dope head up.

    Majority of the people finally woke up. No more brainwashing, and bold face lies.

    Loose with dignity John McCain, don't be a sore looser.

    Pls. keep matching until the last vote is counted.

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  8. Go Dems

    Why do you always moderate my emails??? You let some very vicious things appear but not common since discussion.

    It is scary to listen to McCain/Palin and now 'Joe NOT the Plumber' say these horrible things and realize that there are people out there that believe what they are saying, May GOD protect us all.

    October 29, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  9. KLEE

    Remember this simple math folks: POSITIVE = WINNER & NEGATIVE = LOSER (period)

    Looks like the proof is in the pudding – old saying from old lady in South Carolina (used to live in Colorado!)

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  10. BK

    Lets just hope McCain doesn't steal the election through voting machine fraud like is happening in West Virginia.

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  11. Franky

    Ohhh man, now I don't want my boy to win! LOL!! This ain't fun!! I wanted to keep it a surprise...

    Let's go GOP!!! If you win, business is good for us! LOL!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  12. Indiana Greg

    Happy to see Indiana change to "toss up". Just voted today for Obama in Indiana! Get out and vote! Waited in line nearly an hour. Almost everyone was voting for Barack!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  13. New Yorker for McCain

    Central FL, if America elects Obama there is no way we can expect God's blessing. A vote for Obama is a vote against unborn life, women, the family unit, etc.

    Chi4Obama, nothing about an Obama presidency will bring unification to our country. His policies are radical while his rhetoric is moderate.

    WAKE UP, AMERICA! YOU KNOW NOT WHAT YOU DO!!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  14. Jay, Louisville Kentucky

    We still have to vote people. Lets not get cocky, just like Barack has stated. I want Obama to win as much as anyone, but WE STILL HAVE TO VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! McCain is so desperate now he will stop at nothing, the next 6 days McCain/Palin will try to scare the vote their way. WE HAVE TO VOTE. Send Palin back to her igloo and McCain to his retirement village in AZ

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  15. IRAQ WAR VET IN FLORIDA

    FIVE DAYS TILL CHANGE !!!!

    GO OBAMA GO !!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  16. Denise

    Obama/Biden for all Americans!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  17. Oakbrook,IL

    Mccain – Palin is the rotten egg of your campaign, isnt she? Try again in 2012. You've learned your lesson not to pick just a pretty face, duh!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  18. Voter in Florida

    I stood in line 3 hours today with 10 friends to vote for Obama in Tampa!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  19. Steve

    You don't have to own a gun and go to church to love being an american.

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  20. Bill

    This is great news, but the game isn't over. McBush and Duffous are going to cheat and cheat bad as they become even more desperate. Obama campaign, don't let your guard down - please!

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  21. dft

    Vote, Vote, Vote too add water to the tidal wave.

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  22. Ron, Wisconsin Dells .WI

    The Polls will mean nothing if they do not get out to make the vote.So please everyone dont forget to vote before its to late.Lets put Obama over the top

    October 29, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  23. LOL

    The message is finally sinking in. Obama gives us all hope for peace and comfort that someone is offering people an alternative to the last 8 years of reckless behavior we all are going to be paying for in lives and money for years. VOTE OBAMA grandmother from texas.

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  24. Go Obama

    We are facing the worst economy since the Carter Administration...
    Wait a minute!

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  25. Sally from Cali

    McCain's party line is that Obama cannot admit that the surge worked. Obama said that it work beyond any of their wildest dreams.

    It's even working in Colorado.

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
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