October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Larry, Hazleton, pa

    Great news for our country – it is time that we had someone in the office that cares about the 95% and does not pander to other 5%.

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  2. truth hurts

    Barack the vote, go vote, that is the answer.

    400+ electrol votes change the whole country blue and yes we can let go for it.

    Six hours in the line is nothing than 4more years of crying

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  3. Jimbo

    It brings tears to my eyes that Abraham Lincoln's vision for America that he died for 145 years ago is almost realized.

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  4. Rob

    gee, the same old people reading the same old stuff. Obama is going to drive this country into the ground in less than a year! His $250,000 threshold tax strategy will not work. Most people making that money will be claiming losses from the stock market, along with other deductions, to put their adjustable gross income at under $250,000. So many people are at or around the 250k benchmark that 99% of taxpayers will see a tax decrease. I don't believe, even with the tremendous gap of wealth in this country, that the remaining 1% will "carry" the rest of us. So, either he will have to go back on this promise, and lower the threshold amount from 250k, or we are in for another fiscal crisis!

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  5. Sarah who?

    Let's take it all the way home. I voted early in Texas for OBAMA. I was in Florida on vacation and took my elderly grandmother to the polls so she could vote for OBAMA. Stood in line for 3 hours which caused me to missed my flight back to Texas. I didn't care since the stakes are too high and worth every bit. Get out and VOTE!!

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  6. Skirts included?

    My oh my – the ticker blog has degraded to an Obama cheerleading site. You ought to considering renaming it "chantsforobama.com"...

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  7. East african king in AZ

    Go Obama/Biden leave mcain in the dust. How about that and Clinton hasnt even crisscrossed the US for Obama yet. Lets get out and vote everybody and lets not waste our vote on mcain if you gona vote you might as well give it to Barack Obama and make it count.

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  8. Felix

    We are doing it, but we have not done it yet, keep working, call friends, relatives, talk to the people.. we are making history!

    OBAMONOS!!

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  9. park more

    Your obama will not be the president ... your game will be over soon and sham on you, this is from democrat

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  10. Go Dems

    What about the latest poll in Arizona that shows McCain lead DOWN to single digits! Change the map CNN!!

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  11. A Latte Lover, Seattle, WA

    Does this mean that people aren't falling for McCain/Pain smears and lies????

    Enough already!!!

    Already voted for Obama/Biden, 08 via absentee ballot

    October 29, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  12. Bud Clark

    If they have the faintest hope of a Republican Party with ANY life left after the 2008 elections, McCain and Palin had better give VERY sincere "national unity / work together / we're all Americans" speeches, ESPECIALLY if (the gods forbid!) Palin has any thought of running in 2012. Given McCain's penchant for whining and Palin's EMPTY brain-case, I doubt if the former will happen. The latter will depend on whether the few Republicans with principles / the sense the gods gave a fence post take back the party of Lincoln and Rockefeller. Unfortunately the Konservative Kristianist Krazies are like the undead ... they just keep rising up from their shallow septic tank graves.

    Bud Clark
    San Diego CA USA

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  13. Steve

    i'm tired of being a redneck..damit..almost voted McCain, but i found my heart and love my country too much, the last 8 years was not good, and i'm terrified 4 years with McCain will either be the same as Bush or even worst..finally...i voted with my heart today for Obama, and i feel good, no matter what happens.

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  14. Illinois Blue Dog

    The national polls may be tightening ever so slightly, but where it really matters, in the individual states, McCain is either treading water or losing more ground (as these and other polls found at on realclearpolitics.com and pollster.com suggest). Barring the unforeseen, Obama should break 300 electoral votes as well as 51% of the vote nationally. All you fringe, right wing nut-jobs, get out your bottle of Wild Turkey, its shaping up to be a long night for you all on November 4th.

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  15. kishon

    way to go Obama!

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  16. Gregory T: NYC

    I love it!!!
    Six days and counting! I have not been this excited for a day to come since I was a kid looking forward to Christmas (hoping that Santa brought me the gift I prayed for!)
    Obama has to win!
    All we need is Virginia and Pennsylvania to be called early and it is a wrap!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  17. thomas

    The Palin/McCain camp claims they've pulled even in the polls. Apparently they get their polls from the same place as they get their other information – The Wisalla, Alaska Political Consignment Shop.

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  18. McSame-aPALINing

    The U.S. economy is in the tank, but Gramps and Caribou Barbie still don't seem to notice. They continue to link Obama to terrorists and Islamic fundamentalists in their stump speaches.
    People don't care about that, nor do they believe it. The people of this nation want someone who can lead them out of this mess. And neither McSame nor Palin seem to understand that.

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  19. women4OBAMA

    i am very anxious to see what he is going to be sayin tonight

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  20. #$@* Polls!

    "People are lying, Obama is losing!"

    McCain!!!!

    ...and the ugly girl never got elected Homecoming Queen either, no matter how popular she was!

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  21. steve

    THE MOST IMPORTANT VOTE YOU'LL EVER CAST!!!!!

    OBAMA/BIDEN /08

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  22. Fed up

    It seems like every time McCain make a negative attack, Obama's numbers go up- and it's been like this for weeks and weeks. What I'm really curious to know is why the McCain campaign isn't looking at those numbers and saying, "Ok, this smear campaign thing isn't working- let's go another way."

    Instead, it's "Ok, Ayers didn't work... pick someone else we can try to tie him to and make it look bad." Or "Hmm, this socialist thing isn't working too well, how about we get people to call him a Marxist? That's scarier, right?" Hello? Same tactic, different day! Where are the BRAINS in the McCain campaign??? Are there any? Or are they being ignored? It's like a caricature of what not to do.

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  23. Xavier, Saint Louis, Missouri

    GREAT! 5 days and counting!

    Obama all the way!

    YES WE CAN!

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  24. I'm A Fool !

    I hope Obama wins so I can give all my money to people who don't work!!

    And I love his wife who for the first time in her life likes America.

    Socialism all the way,

    Let's send money to all our enemies and maybe they will love us.

    Let's let Oprah be Secretary of State.

    God, please help us elect the right man.

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  25. deb in Colo

    Even super conservative Colorado Springs is covered in OBAMA/BIDEN signs. It makes my little liberal heart go pitty-patty! 😀

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
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