October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Brian, NJ

    While he will win the overall popular vote by 5-6 points in the end, Obama will win in an electoral landslide.

    October 29, 2008 04:34 pm at 4:34 pm |
  2. Anonymous

    Finally, it appears that the American people have had enough of the GOP slime machine and their habit of exaggerating, distorting, and just plain lying to gain power. Finally, the American people care about the issues and the damage that has been done to our country! Finally, we have a candidate who stands up to the slime machine and throws a truth wrench into the mechanisms! Thank you, Sen. Obama for fighting the sleaze and staying on issues.

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  3. Is it just me?

    Is it just me or does anyone else feel that McCain/Palin are both somewhat psychologically unbalanced?

    They just don't seem to get it, if the plan does not work change tactics! My Republican party needs a complete overhaul. We had our chance to promote new policy, speak on issues and plead to Independents.
    Time has ran out and we deserve all of these comments I am seeing.
    The Neoconservative base of the party lost this election and if there is going to be any finger pointing they need to look in the mirror.

    The GOP needs to get back to the Party it was prior to Rove and Bush.

    I congratulate Obama/Biden on their upcoming victory and hope we have learned our lesson for a new party emergence in 2012 – Fellow Moderate Conservatives Unite!!

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  4. Rob indetroit

    Obama is blowing MCbush out because the Republicans are running
    a filthy campaign

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  5. Stacy (PA)

    Go Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! No weapon that formed against you shall prosper.

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  6. John

    I once attended a baseball game where I sat three rows from David Eisenhower and Julie (Nixon) Eisenhower. Does that make me a Republican? Barack Obama is resident on planet earth and so is Osama bin Laden, so I guess he was bosom buddies with terrorists. I love the desperate despicable logic of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina and McCain/Palin. Has the Republican party really gotten this dumb and low.

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  7. Chipster

    Finally, it appears that the American people have had enough of the GOP slime machine and their habit of exaggerating, distorting, and just plain lying to gain power. Finally, the American people care about the issues and the damage that has been done to our country! Finally, we have a candidate who stands up to the slime machine and throws a truth wrench into the mechanisms! Thank you, Sen. Obama for fighting the sleaze and staying on issues.

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  8. DEMOCRAT FOR MCCAIN

    The CNN poll is left wing PROPOGANDA!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  9. MikeH

    I detect a new type of Republican troll posting here.

    'Socialists' and 'Oliver', are you really for Obama, or are you trying to seem rabidly for Obama?

    Your rabid behavior is a give-away, seems Republican-like. Think that it will repel undecideds? I don't.

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  10. CLYSLY

    Hooray for Obama Biden, the voices of reason, intelligence, democracy, love of country/constitution and human rights!!!! Go Obama Biden 2008!

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  11. chris

    sounds like obama will be spending more money. He seems to know how to do that very well. Spendng millions of dollars on his campaign.
    I am very sad to see a person who says he is for the people, spend so much money to get himself elected. CAN YOU JUST IMAGINE HOW MANY PEOPLE JUST IN THE UNITED STATES COULD BE HELPED WITH THE MONEY HE IS SPENDING ON THIS 30MIN. T.V. SHOWING. TONIGHT. IT SICKENS ME.

    October 29, 2008 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  12. WAKE UP AMERICA

    It's a shame how the sheep continue to follow Obama everywhere... yet how can they not.. more money for anyone making under 250k.....

    There have been elections that have been bought before, but this is taking it to a new low...

    Keep on buying Obama, in 4 years America will see you for who you really are.

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  13. Erik in Real PA

    I'm voting against the angry old negative has-been and his ill-prepared celebrity sidekick.

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  14. Madge H. Matthews

    Go ahead – Pay off Joe the Plant (aka Joe the Plumber), cut out the verbage and GO = OBAMA 08.

    P.S. Be careful this Halloween. I understand there is an honest-to-goodness WITCH out there. Her name is SARAH PALIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  15. Eric

    Gotta love it, Blue Blue Blue the map goes!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  16. greenfish

    Could it be that my country is back? No more hate and no more divisive politics? I pray it is, but will keep on working through November 4th.

    Obama/Biden in 2008!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  17. young and informed independant

    lovely!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  18. Manny

    Way to go Colorado!!! But let's not get complacent! Let's get the vote out!

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  19. Chi4Obama

    Hey GOP,
    Maybe you should blame Hillary Clinton for your inevitable loss in this election.

    Just think that if she had never released the Rev. Wright tapes back in March; you could actually play that Trump card NOW as a true "October surprise".

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  20. Lou from CT

    As Democrats, the last thing we want to become is complacent in our support for Obama/Biden. The message must still get out and the campaigning needs to go on. Let's keep the message alive to elect Barack Obama and Joe Biden on Nov. 4.

    Obama/Biden 2008

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  21. Michelle Sanford

    I wonder how far in the lead Obama would be if the LA times DID release the tape of his toasting Rashid Khalidi with Ayers at his side. When the anti-semetic poem was read, does the tape show Obama getting up and leaving? What were Obama's comments. Why is the main-stream media & CNN which is supposed to be an unbiased news outlet not talking about this story. If they did, where would Obama be in the polls now?

    Nice to see how the dems & liberals like to skew things in their favor instead of giving both sides of every argument to the voters so they can actually decide carefully!

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  22. hrsc

    This is McCains own doing he stated early he would run a honorable race. many in my circle have stated that his nasty tactics are not what we want. John McCain can not keep his word about his own honor how can we trust him moving into the future.

    A 60 Minutes interview, originally broadcast on October 12, 1997

    Is it true John McCain confessed to war crimes?

    And now he's okay with torture.... If this is true, well.....we are googling this for the facts.

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  23. McCain Supporter!

    Hey, you know that if you comment AGAINST Obama, and it NEVER gets posted, then you have an Obama supporter doing the moderating.

    McCain/Palin!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  24. Hardworking American for McCain

    Go Obama! Start another communist country with your terrorists money! All $63 million of it you dirtbag! Give 12 millionb illegal aliens driver's licenses and register prisoned criminals so you can get their votes. You are nothing but what you appear to be on the surface!

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  25. for shame McCain!

    McCain is a liar and a coward with very bad judgment. He and that hateful witch Palin will have their comeuppance Nov 4.

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
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