October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Ben

    Every single vote (popular and electoral) counts. Don't abandon your future to others. Vote yourself.

    October 29, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  2. Wendy

    Wow...should be an interesting night next Tuesday. I think I feel the winds of change blowing across our great land!!

    October 29, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  3. Bill

    B.S. , I don't believe it. CNN is in the tank or taking money.

    October 29, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  4. Chi4Obama

    Meanwhile,
    I am just sitting back at the GOP's many failed attempts to tear down Obama with nasty smears. Ayers, Rezko, Rev. Wright, ACORN, and now most recently (today)...Khalid. I'm glad to see that most of America can see past all of the Republican smokescreens, and care about the issues only.

    Remember everyone – Barack the Vote.

    October 29, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  5. show it up

    these polls don't mean anything..wait till 11/04 and see that John McCain, the man with a real view and plan for America, will win...and it will not be with polls, but real votes

    October 29, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  6. Shakeelm

    Rationality prevails.

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  7. Felly

    The fundamentals of our economy are strong!

    I'm John McSame, and I approve this message.

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  8. Tachea

    Can we please vote now??

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  9. Sebrina Alfonso

    Obama speaks of unity in the party. Perhaps we on these blogs should also do the same. It has been a long fought campaign and many mean comments made from candidates and voters.
    Let's hope we can, either way.

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  10. Angry Republican

    Today I voted for the first time in my life for a Democrat. As much as it hurt to do, it is the only way that I can boycott the way McCain & Palin have run this race. They have run the nastiest campaign that I can remember. It is obvious that they don't know what to do to catch up & that the smear tactics are not working, so why do they continue to do it.

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  11. Dee, Atlanta,Ga

    Yep I voted myself!!!!!!

    Obama 08!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  12. IowaMom

    Go Obama! But let's not get too complacent, we still need everyone to get out and vote!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  13. lil

    CNN you wouldnt sell Sen Obama 30 Minutes of airtime but you gave
    mccain 60 minutes of airtime what even happened to that no bias no
    bull that you are always talking about.

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  14. arc, Lugano CH

    'Uncounted'.

    This is a must-see bi-partisan documentary for educated global-minded voters. The dire situation that the United States now finds itself on the domestic, economic and foreign relations fronts are a result of outright criminal election fraud by the Bush Administration and the Republican Party.

    Demand Justice not 'if' but 'when' John McCain attempts the same strategy!!! McCain is a sickly old liar and will cheat to win!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  15. Ian

    God help us all.

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  16. Ethan of NJ

    Great news!
    Everyone, don't forget to VOTE!!! Be at the polls for early voting if your state has it. If it doesn't, be sure to come early as you can to the Nov. 4 polls.

    No matter what it takes, VOTE!

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  17. Greg in Mpls

    Get out the VOTE!!! Make sure everyone who wants Obama to be president and who is registered gets to the polls and votes for Obama/Biden!

    No time to relax. Don't ever think it's in the bag folks. Run through the tape and finish the race a winner!

    October 29, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  18. DenverWhtGal

    I want to be proud of my state...Obama needs to win so we can have hope for the future. Without hope what is there? McCain does not offer anything but what we have already endured. And his running mate may be the "best thing" they have in Alaska...I've been to Alaska...there's not much there, a few radicals and survivalists, folks who stay becasue the state gives them money to do so.

    With happy tears in my eyes and a lump in my throat, I will proudly vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday...this has been a long time coming and I will be a very proud American.

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  19. Cal JC

    well, the more lies mcfailing are spewing the better it is for Obama. keep those lies coming..

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  20. Chi4Obama

    So does McCain still have Obama "Right where he wants him"?

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  21. Chris from NY

    When you point a finger at someone the rest of the fingers points back at you. McCain is drudging every thing he's got at Obama, but he forgets that he has ties to the same guy he's accusing Obama of keeping friends with if at all. McCain should be careful what he wishes for because he might get more than he bargained for.

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  22. Robert Bartholomew

    Don't get overly confident! Obama needs the youth vote. In short, if Obama doesn't get it, he loses. If they vote, he wins. So... get them out there! Drive them yourself if you have to! Get them to the polls!

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  23. Independent

    People are suffering...losing homes, jobs, house value, savings...and what is McCain now talking about "Khleid"–
    Simply tone deaf

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  24. Peter (CA)

    All of these negative ads by McCain are having an effect:
    Washington went from lean Obama to safe Obama
    Colorado went from toss-up to lean Obama
    Indiana went from lean McCain to toss-up

    Thank you to all of the American voters who are paying attention and not buying the usual right wing hysteria.

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  25. Curtis - Marietta, GA

    Come on GA, we can do it too! Let's get out an vote though people. A vote doesn't count until IT'S MADE!

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
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