October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. spread the wealth

    and by the way it's not an uphill battle for mccain.it's over for mccain

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  2. ran

    People of Colorado vote vote vote don't let the polls make you think your vote is not needed. We need ever vote. We do not need this election to be decided by a Republican leaning Supreme Court.

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  3. Sharon

    I voted this past Saturday for Obama.

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  4. Tafari

    6 days left, lets not get comfortable with this lead. Anything can happen between now & then!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  5. Texan for Obama

    CNN... I LOVE your map... much better than all the other maps online. Eventhough they all say the same thing:

    GAME OVER McCAIN !!!

    OBAMA 08' !!!

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  6. ANGIE

    Keep going negetive Mccain and Palin see the results but lets not get cocky Obama Supporters GET OUT AND ROCK THE VOTE!

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  7. Eric, APO Korea

    I am just personally tired of attacks and the bush-mccain policies and feel ill just thinking of what they will do in the white house. They spin so much stuff, that I can just this being repeated over again. Obama is fresh and the world needs a new turn... and like everything in life, there is always risk... but that's why Obama represent hope.

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  8. JuTon

    Whoo Hoo!!! Go Obama!!!! This is great news to my ears! I'm so ready for it to be November 4th...

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  9. kburger- CA

    I voted today. Get out the vote. Don't be complacent. Encourage everyone to vote early.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  10. Ready for the 5th

    Well, the old guy has too much of a temper and doesn't seem like he has much of a plan for anything that we haven't seen before...and his teeth are too yellow for TV. His VP pick doesn't seem to agree with him on certain stuff and sounds like a second grade teacher telling the kids to wear boots outside. They're like 2 loaded cannons rolling back and forth on a sinking ship.

    So I'm voting for the muslim terrorist baby-killing socialist and his sidekick joe the gaffer.

    Is it the 5th yet?

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  11. Vegas Barbie for Obama

    YES WE CAN!!! KEEP IT UP UNTIL NOV. 4!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  12. Mccain/Palin are liars!

    Please go out and vote this November, these polls won't mean anything if we don't vote in November! I am more anxious than ever to vote for Obama, even though I'm sure he will win my state, I want the popular vote to really send the republicans and their smear campaigns a loud and clear message that we've had enough!

    October 29, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  13. Felton a.k.a. Common Sense

    ...What did you expect?....

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  14. David, Silver Spring, MD

    How would McCain reach across the aisle to work with Democrats when he has run such a nasty, divisive campaign? How can he solve problems with the other side when he has condemned their ideas as socialist, communist, and Marxist?

    McCain and Palin have been running a poisonous, scorched-earth campaign.

    What doth it profit McCain if he should gain the whole world but lose his soul?

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  15. Tiffany

    You would think the fact that Obama is gaining ground in Arizona (McCain's home state) would give McCain a clue. NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING IS NOT WORKING!!!

    And, for this first time in my life I'm proud of my country for not falling for the negativity.

    Obama 08

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  16. Colm

    ....and McCain and Palin deicide to ignore the issues and attack Obama with falsehood claims again! No wonder it's getting worse for them.

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  17. Alabama for Obama

    HAH! This must be the "surge" McCain was talking about. BARACK THE VOTE!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  18. KW in Denver

    Yeah!!!

    I voted early and attended the rally (100,000+) this past Sunday!

    Colorado LOVES Obama!

    Barack the Vote '08

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  19. Madsal

    McCain is actually pathetic. He has no message except for being critical of Obama on every turn. One would think that even he would get tired of speaking the name "Obama". His every message or sentence has OBAMA in it. Where are his policies. He keeps saying he has been "TESTED". What has he been tested on? He certainly hasn't been President yet, so any other type of testing he may have had surely does not measure up to actually being Presidentially tested. I know you will not POST my comments because you very seldom do. I guess being PRO McCain make a difference to CNN

    GO Obama/Biden

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  20. paul (reformed republican)

    I think Obama's strengthening in the polls is a direct result of the last-ditch round of attack ads by McCain/Palin and the RNC. The population is very weary of the negativity, which seems to be the only thing the Rep's are offering.

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  21. payback

    Let's not forget. mccain/palin, has to to pay the devil it's due. Namely, rove, bush, and big business....If they get elected. we will have, the same" cast of characters" in the white house. But under a different name......Vote for change..............................................

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  22. Gary

    Does that mean McCain is closer to " Right where he wants to be."

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  23. John Anthony

    Maybe had McCain and that acid-tongued Palin run a more positive, FACTUAL and issues-based campaign, they wouldn't be drowning in their own muck right now!

    O BA M A / B I D E N '08!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  24. Michael in Houston

    I voted already, Texas we have until Thursday Night for early voting, get out there Texas and vote! I can't speak for other cities but if Houston was the only city in Texas where the vots counted, Obama would win by a landslide. So come on the rest of Texas, let's change the way Washington works and give Obama a chance to clean it up.

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  25. Charla in TX

    Hmmm.......and even as I read this article, Sean Hannity is on his radio show bellowing about how McCain has turned the tide because the polls are closing up, and the undecideds are flocking to McCain.........

    WHAT A FREAKIN' MORON!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
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