October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Debbie in Missouri

    Let's go vote !

    The McCain Palin Lies are not going to work. We are smarter than that.

    Go.... O B A M A ! ! !

    October 29, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  2. Hamid

    Please Please Please. Beaware of anticipated endorsement of McCain by Bin Laden. Remember 2004. Also McCain all of a sudden started talking about Al-Qaeeda. Some thing is cooking. I can smell the pigs

    October 29, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  3. obama central (a.k.a. sheep herding)

    Get out the vote!!

    Make sure all those for McCain have a way to the polls. It is vital not to have Obama in the white house!!!! We cannot have another banking fiasco caused by government regulation. (Now everyone repeat after me...Fannie Mae!!!).

    Get the facts and vote. Don't just follow CNN. Think for yourselfs, stop being sheep and don't just jump on the bandwagon.

    Don't be stupid. Vote for McCain!!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  4. Joy

    I am getting nervous....God please let Obama win!!

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  5. Lillie

    LANDSLIDE!! si se puede

    GO OBAMA/BIDEN!

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  6. obama 08-12

    go obama most of us around the world are praying for you.

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  7. Marie

    Count my dad as one of those older Colorado voters breaking for Obama. A Vietnam war vet who has always voted republican, he voted earlier this week for Obama.

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  8. beachgirl

    McCain's negative and ugly ads DID IT!
    He claims to he honorable........he cheating on his wife!
    Claims to be working for the people.........he had the chance to do it for so long and he didn't
    Claims to be truthful.........by calling Latinos "they are good for labor work"
    MY FRIENDS, MY FRIENDS, MY FRIENDS, MY FRIENDS......uhhhhhh

    VIVA OBAMA!

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  9. Bridgette-PA

    DON'T BELIEVE ANY POLLS! JUST BARACK THE VOTE ON NOV. 4TH

    OBAMA/BIDEN -08!

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  10. David in Colorado

    I've been waiting for the CNN electoral map to reflect what we Coloradans have known for a while - as long as people get out and vote - it's over here.

    Two quick anecdotal stories as proof. It's a gorgeous day here in CO, and I just got back from a 15-mile run. Along the way I kept track of the Obama vs. McCain signs I saw - it was about 10 – 1 for Obama. (And that's in a critical Denver suburb.)

    Last week, I was in South Denver for a meeting and counted yard signs until I got too bored: Obama 138, McCain 3, Nader 2. Granted, that area of Denver is one of the most liberal parts of town, but come on!

    Having said all this, take nothing for granted: get out and vote Colorado!

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  11. Ghost

    Don't get comfortable with the polls. Vote on the 4th it's the only poll that counts.

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  12. Sherri

    Yea, Washington. I'm so proud to see the move to solid Obama! Colorado welcome aboard. Keep up the hard work. Just 7 more day!

    Go Obama!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  13. Alison B

    As the days draw closers the gaps seems to increase...Must be all those negative things that McCain and Palin want to bring up so I say to them just keeping them coming for the next 6 days we will be greatful for that.

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  14. Are We There Yet?

    Tuesday can't get here fast enough. At least we can get a break from the Reupublican trash talking for the holidays. Then after the inauguration, it'll be Obama bashing 24/7.

    And no, I'm not overconfident. I just see the writing on the wall, barring any dirty tricks.

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  15. Wally©

    So much for Joe Schnitzelbacher... 🙂

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  16. rick

    why is it no one is sayin anything about todd palin membership in a party that wants Alaska to succeed from the US.

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  17. Reason

    America can not be fooled any more, no scare tactic is going to save senator McCain, 2008 will be remembered the year America said enough to politicians who play to our fears when they lack good ideas.

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  18. -K&H-

    Hey McCain have you ever noticed that when you put out negative stuff the Polls comeout and show you how much America is not into the bashing of others. Guess you don't pay attention to the polls, just like you don't pay attention to the economy, and the people.

    OB/JB 08

    October 29, 2008 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  19. Chi4Obama

    To the unfaithful members of the Republican (Rethuglican) Party:

    It's not too late to jump on the Obama Train. Many of your fellow party members have already come aboard. Next stop 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

    America Unified

    Palin 2012?... (NOT!)

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  20. Hardy Takhar

    FOLKS GET READY AS SHOWTIME IS NEXT WEEK. THE GOP IS ABOUT TO GET HAMMERED.THE RESULTS WILL BE UNPRECEDENTED AND HISTORIC IT WILL TAKE THE GOP A GENERATION TO GET OVER BUSH,MCBUSH AND MCBIMBO. I MOCK THESE GOP FOOLS FOR WRECKLESS FISCAL MANAGEMENT OF THE GREATEST NATION ON THIS EARTH. THERE SHOULD BE BROUGHT TO TRIAL FOR NEARLY BANKRUPTING THIS NATION

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  21. wizard of oz

    looks like Mc Cain has been a wrong nominee for republicans. I feel his nomination is helping Obama.

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  22. I Think, Therefore I am Democrat

    Elizabeth Dole,

    Is it Godless to inject Botox into your face?

    Your days in office are numbered!

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  23. Chris

    CNN please stop covering Obama in positive light too much. You are going to build up overconfidence in us Obama supporters.

    We all know Obama is going to win, but don't spread the message to the republicans because then they will be extremely motivated to go tho the polls even more if they think Obama might win big.

    Obama '08.

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  24. Veterans 4 Obama

    I smell a landslide coming!

    Obama 352
    McCain 186

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  25. Tasha S.

    OBAMA'S WINNING BECAUSE PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO HEAR ALL THAT NEGATIVE STUFF FROM MCCAIN WHEN THEY ARE TRYING TO PAY BILLS, STAY IN THEIR HOMES, AND KEEP THEIR JOBS. MCCAIN HAS BEEN IN CONGRESS FOR 26 YEARS AND THIS IS HOW HE HANDLES HIMSELF. HE GETS ANGRY EVERYTIME SOMEONE DOES NOT AGREE WITH HIM, I DON'T THINK MCCAIN HAS EVER REACHED ACCROSS THE ISLE.

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
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