October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. bill pike

    can you spell WHITE HOUSE.

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  2. D&D

    If CNN polls are correct, Obama has already won this election!

    However, to make these polls correct, everyone needs to VOTE, EARLY or on ELECTION DAY, make sure your VOTE count folks!

    God bless America, GOd bless Obama/Biden.

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  3. pam Eugene OR

    We are expecting a rain storm and very cold weather here in Oregon for this weekend and it will not stop me from going door to door for Obama getting the vote out.
    I sent Obama another $50 today in response to the disgusting Dole ad. The Republicans have really energized this campaign for me. For very smarmy ad and every disgusting lie they tell I work all that much harder against them. I am 58 years old and never in my life have I ever given a dime to a campaign let alone my precious time.
    I am so inspired and elevated by Barack Hussien Obama that I will do all in my power to help him between now and the day he is elected of President of the USA.

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  4. chuck

    I am thrilled America is waking up. I had pretty much given up hope over the last 8 years. It's about time.

    October 29, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  5. Todd in Wisconsin

    Get out and VOTE! This race will tighten up over the next few days. VOTE OBAMA!

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  6. dan

    TO ALL OF AMERICAN,
    PLEASE VOTE FOR OBAMA ! NOBODY WANT TO SEE THE THIRD BUSH ! NO MORE BUSH PLEASE VOTE FOR OBAMA .......

    dan,UK

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  7. reggie

    and McCain surges in Missouri, Florida, North Carolina....It's funny how CNN always forgets to post the positive news on McCain. One would think you are rooting for Obama, but that cannot be the case, as you are a nonbiased news organization. RIGHT?

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  8. Sarah- ARIZONA

    Do NOT become COMPLACENT! Everyone must vote.

    DONT LISTEN TO THE POLLS. VOTE OBAMA 08

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  9. Griff

    What is the connection, between the "Princes in the Tower", and Bond??

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  10. Mr Independent

    Looks like McSame and his side kick Palin the Bulldog are at it again accusing Barack of being involved with a radical professor. When is this going to end? The Republicans wonder why Barack is leading in those battleground states...all they have to do is look in the mirror. Quit spilling the hate!

    To take a quote from the Rock...Can you SMELLLLLL what Barack is cookin!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  11. KJL

    The voters have seen through McCain's nasty desperation. They want a cool-headed, intelligent, capable leader, not a hot-head with a religious fanatic as a V.P. choice. Smart Republicans have decided a few years with a Democrat in the White House is better than a worse economy and likely another war.

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  12. RG

    Go vote people! Obama 08!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  13. ralph

    The higher Obama's gains, the nastier McCain's attacks become. If McCain's internal polls about gaining on Obama were true, then why is his attacks still getting more nastier and desperate?

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  14. RGG

    Vote early, vote now. Vote Obama/Biden and save the world from four more years of Bush with McBush.

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  15. Jeff

    Just wait when Obama gives amnesty to twenty million illegals here. More unemployment and more spreading the wealth.

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  16. Christopher

    I am so excited to see that there are more people in the US that are willing to look at the REAL issues NOT race when it comes to our country. John McCain has shown America that he is willing to say or do whatever in order to get a vote. This is NOT what America is and shouldnt be.

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  17. Jeff in Virginia

    GOBAMA!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  18. GOP DESPERATION

    And we'll dance on the ashes of what's left.

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  19. Republican for Obama

    There were 100,000 people joined in his Denver rally recently ,so this is not a surprise . May be Missori will also follow where he rallied the same count of 100,000 people .

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  20. Former PUMA

    If John will just wise up and drop Palin, stop the negativity, and put oput an ad with some substance, he may swing more votes his way. If McCain loses, and Plain takes control of the repub party, well Dems are gonna have a pretty smooth ride for wuite a while. Palin is a huge drag on McCain and is obviously looking out for her future, not McCains or the parties future. McCain is all negative and not telling us what he would do, just saying how what Obama would do is wrong. I really don't understand the repubs campaign strategy.

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  21. PUMBU

    ONE OLD WOMAN DIED AFTER STANDING ON LINE FOR TWO DAYS TO VOTE FOR PRESIDENT NELSON MANDELA OF SOUTH AFRICA. TO ALL SUPPORTERS OF BOTH PARTIES IN THE US OF A, THIS IS OUR COUNTRY AND WE LOVE IT. PLEASE, WE CAN AFFORD TO STAND ON LINE FOR ONE, TWO OR THREE HOURS TO EXERCISE OUR RIGHT AND PRACTICE DEMOCRACY WHILE MAKING HISTORY. PLEASE, GET OUT AND VOTE, IF POSSIBLE NOW!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  22. frank

    the good news keeps pouring in. The dam is about to break. The waves will wash away the negative campainers and fear mongers and usher in the change we need. McWar and his goon princess cannot read the hand writing on the wall. Do not lose the election and also lose your honor. Time to call off the dogs and admit you've been beat by a better candidate.
    Meanwhile everyone please make sure to vote.
    YES WE CAN

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  23. reggie

    I voted for Obama today, and will go back and vote for him again tomorrow. NOBAMA!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  24. BOOTSTOMPER

    Dont get complacent people vote now or vote Nov 4th but vote. If you have been listening to McCain and Palin the last 2 days it is outrageous the things they have been saying about Obama. John McCain has lost all sense of dignity if he ever had any to begin with. And Palin is a flat out pathological liar.

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  25. deb in Colo

    I ALREADY VOTED FOR OBAMA!!!!

    Go Blue COLORADO!!

    October 29, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
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