(CNN) – Call it the battle for Big Sky country.
George W. Bush won Montana by 20 points in his re-election victory four years ago. But it seems the times have changed in the state.
CNN's new Electoral College map, updated Sunday morning, moves Montana from "lean John McCain" to "toss up." The move is partially based on our new CNN Poll of Polls in Montana, compiled Friday, which suggests McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, has a one-point lead over his Democratic rival Barack Obama, 46 percent to 45 percent. Nine percent of voters are undecided.
"The fact that Montana is up for grabs has to be extremely unsettling for the McCain campaign," said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Montana's usually a reliably Republican state in presidential campaigns. It's been won by the Democrats only twice in the past half century. If you're a Republican and you're fighting for Montana in the last few days of the campaign, you're not in good shape."
Three electoral votes are at stake in Montana, a state Obama visited in late August. McCain has not campaigned in Montana during the general election.
With Montana moving to "toss-up," CNN estimates that if the election were held today, Obama would win states worth 291 electoral votes - more than enough to capture the White House
McCain would take states worth 157 electoral votes, while states worth a combined total of 90 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.
The CNN Electoral College map uses such factors as the most recent state polling, voting trends, campaign visits and campaign advertising to estimate how a state would vote if the election were held today.
CNN is also moving Iowa, and its 7 electoral votes, from "lean Obama" to "safe Obama." Our newest CNN Poll of Polls in Iowa, compiled Sunday morning, suggests Obama now has a lead of 14 percentage points in the state, 53 percent to 39 percent.
The state narrowly voted for Al Gore in the 2000 election and narrowly voted for George W. Bush in the last presidential contest.
Iowa was the site of Obama's first major political triumph in this long presidential campaign. His victory in the Iowa caucuses at the start of this year propelled him towards the Democratic presidential nomination. On Friday, tens of thousands of supporters gathered in Des Moines, the state's largest city, to cheer on Obama at at rally.
But the state's a very different story for Sen. McCain.
"John McCain has always had a somewhat cool relationship with Iowa voters," Silverleib noted. "He didn't seriously contest the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008, and he's opposed ethanol subsidies - a political kiss of death with Iowa voters. Combine those facts with the backdrop of a struggling economy, and it's not terribly surprising that Obama is pulling away at this point."
From CNN Politics
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Montana will be BLUE!!
Nobody wants to take a chance on the moose killer near the white house. Too much hate, fear, and smear.
You wanna know why Nebraska corn leans to the east? Because IOWA SUCK!!!!!
48 more hours and John McCain can start packing – for his return to Arizona, head hung low in defeat.
Now he needs to resign his Senate seat and let the people of his state be represented by someone who really represents America.
The bell has almost tolled for the McCain campaign. All you nuts who are still cheerleading for McCain need a good reality check. However, even you will be better off with Obama as President, you just don't know it yet.
OBAMA/BIDEN 2008
The Mountain West has had an influx of economic migrants from the rest of the country, lured by the gas economy and housing prices and quality of life. They have brought some of their attitudes with them, and have had an influence on people who already live there, the result is a melding of libertarian thinking and sensitivity to more urban economic issues that are becoming relevant in that area.
The Republican party risks becoming basically a southern regional party, unless they start listening to what people want from their representatives.
McKnucklehead!! You're gonna' LOSE!!
Put Montana right there with Arizona. It will be stunning to see how many votes, and how many states, Obama actually wins. McCain shot himself in the foot this election.
Now Americans are realising their made them a GREAT NATION...the truth! Freedom, freedom and freedom without the truth is no freedom at all. You all know that McCain cannot deliver.
No wonder that state becomes into play as well as Boston, MA since Obama is bringing in Kenyans by the boat load. Here we have Zeituni Onyango in Boston and I image she is grabbing a ballot.
Guess who Zeituni will vote for? I wonder how many more from Kenya are being imported into our great country, stealing jobs from hard working Americans? Is this the change we want?
It's a purple revolution.
Go, Montana!
Come on, Montana! Everybody go vote for Obama! I'm so proud to be a Montanan!
bye, bye McCain, Palin, Bush, Cheney, and the GOP.
Iowa has been safe for Obama since January, but we're glad to see you finally acknowledge it!
Obama/Biden 08
- Brazil
Obama in a landslide with more than 350 electoral votes. Make that bet at your election night party.
Good For Obama
Do not underestimate the effect of Ron Paul's name on the ballot
there.Alot of Republicans may choose to vote for him if they see a bandwagon effect on the east coast. If the big Montana goes Obama, what a statement that makes about the end of the Electoral map of the last 45 years!
This is really fantastic news for the Obama camp, and I hope to God that Montana will go blue this election cycle. The economy is in really terrible shape right now and we need a president in office that's got a wealth of brains, energy and resources to get us all out of this huge mess. Seriously, only Senator Barack Obama and Joe Biden qualify to handle todays crisis! Go Obama!
wake up montana. If you want to keep your guns.... believe in pro life.
then DO NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA. He is a lying sack of sh– and is the most crooked politician there is.He has a very dark side that you are not seeing at this time....
I loved the prank phone call to Sarah Palin from the radio dj posing as Nicholas Sarkozy. He said in France they have an equivalent to Joe the Plumber called Marcel the guy with bread under his armpits ... she still didn't catch on. He used the name of a popular singer as the prime minister of Canada, she still didn't catch on (she doesn't even know who the prime minister of Canada is???). He talked about an xxx video as being a documentary on Sarah Palin, she still didn't catch on. The list goes on and on. She was so unprofessional throughout, calling him Nicholas was an utter lack of respect. No wonder red states are turning blue ... even the most ardent republican supporters are scared of the idea that she could become president if McCain is elected. Bad decision Johnny, it cost you the election.
as of sept. over 760,000 jobs have been lost here in the U.S., people are still scared to death that their job will be next, this happened under mccain, palin, bush, cheney goverment, we can't take four more years of this kind of leadership, what will be next your medicare, your medicaid, your social security, VOTE FOR THE ONLY ONE THAT MAKES GOOD SENSE FOR AMERICA, VOTE OBAMA-BIDEN
Americans of all cultures and ethnicities are coming together in this movement for change.
I'm amazed that Obama is going to win. I think America has lost its mind. Do we hate George Bush so much that we're willing to drive off a cliff?
I can't wait for all of this to be over. While as an Obama volunteer, it's been great this year, I just want to see the ending and results!
Go MT!
Since McCain is behind in the polls he is telling America to not trust the polls. I want to know if polls can be trusted. I want CNN to do some research and tell us the percentage of former presidential election polls that were found to be accurate after the election.
It does not bode well when you're losing states, especially when the first votes will be cast in less than 48 hours. If you ask me, McCain gave his concession on SNL last night.
If the McCain that I saw last night was that same McCain throughout this entire campaign, he wouldn't be in this situation.
I'm so excited about Montana! Nobody has called me yet... if they do, it will push MT to Obama!
The good folks in Montana are realizing that they don't want or need jokesters and pranksters running their SNL skits from the Whitehouse. They are quite smartly going with real professionals such as Senator Barack Obama and Joe Biden who are taking their campaigning and duties to the American people much more seriously. Now that's change that we can believe in! Thank you Montana!!! Obama/Biden 08-12!
Lots of enthusiasm for Obama here in Montana. There are way more Obama signs and bumper stickers around than I've ever seen for any Democratic presidential candidate. I'll still be a little surprised if Obama wins the state on Tuesday, but as the story says, the simple fact that Montana is even in play does not bode well for McCain.
Whoever you support, just go VOTE on Tuesday!
that's what I'm talking about go out and vote for Ma man Obama and Biden pleaseeeeeeee Obama/Biden08
With these poll numbers, missy there is a possibility you will be back at your day job.
So moose(my heartfelt apologies to all mooses or meese, whichever) mom, with you being found guilty of abuse of power for trooper gate, and your mentor Stevens from whom you obviously learned your ethics in government dealings, now has 7 felony convictions under his belt, it is revealed today, that there has been another ethics violation charge filed against you. Seems the Alaskan taxpayers are a bit peeved that you spent 21K of their tax dollars flying the kiddo’s around the country on their dime, especially, now that it has been revealed the kiddos were not invited and in one case, not wanted at the event. Seems that most popular governor title is also in jeopardy, latest poll shows you down to 60% from 80%, but of course, no one can take that Miss Wasilla title away from you.
So, was this whole VP gimmick worth it to you and your family?
Remember, if you lose the day job, your back to being the average Alaskan fishwife, albeit, a very well dressed one.
Which brings me to my question, just what Valentino frock does one wear to gut fish?
John McCain will meet his own Little Big Horn In the state of Montana.
Obama/Biden08/12
It is too late for Mcain to distance himself from G Bush. He got NO different plan for our ailing economy different from the current ones.......or atleast he has explained NONE if any so far. To criticize Obama plans without anything away from the BUSH disaster is why he is likely to lose.
Bush taxed the poor to benefit the wealthy and Corporations! Then he opened up our borders to cheap imports. RESULTS: WE ARE JOBLESS CONSUMERS!
get out and vote November 4th for Obama/Biden pleaseeeeeee
A landslide would be very helpful to get some actual legislative work done. Get out and vote!
I do believe that not only McCain/Palin underestimate the dissatisfication of the People with the Bush/Cheney policies! I think even the media will be surprised at the ground swell for Obama.
What I don't like is the feeling that McCain and Palin are getting more attention as the underdogs of this campaign than Obama!
Call me McCynic, but I can't help but give pause for thought when I see that EXXON MOBIL is bringing election night to CNN! The biggest profits for the biggest oil company makes this support just a bit ironic to me. As I said.... call me McCynic.... it makes me nervous.
Obama has the support of the People all over this country. His alligence is to us.... but EXXON... their alligence is to Republicans/McCain right now! Who do you support, you support the man and the party you feel is looking out for you!
This is really looking very bad for McCain. Not staying true to the McCain of 2000 is costing him.
Having moved from Texas to Montana three years ago, I am thrilled to live in a state with a chance of going blue in this election. We have two democratic senators who are wonderful, and a democratic governor who is absolutely the best governor in the entire nation. Our governor has more energy policy knowledge and ideas than Sarah Palin.
There are only eight major centers of population in Montana and seven of those are reliably democrat. Three of those are quite liberal (and yes, they are "real" America). In my town there are more Obama/Biden signs and bumper stickers than McCain/Palin by a margin of 5 to 1. We are working very hard to get Sen. Obama elected here in Montana.
Montanans do not fall for B.S., we have enough B.S. from our cows, which outnumber people! We really don't fall for lies and vitriolic rhetoric here. We are not a racist state and we truly believe in hope.
I switched from being a staunch republican to being a democrat this year because of the Palin pick for VP. The people of Montana aren't fools! They know when it's time for a change in this country! Apparently McCain and Palin feel that horsing around on SNL is more important than speaking about the economy and other serious issues. So much for being focused huh! Go Obama!!
We had eight miserable years; go vote!
Registered Republican "voted" Obama/Biden 08
Montana Is Obama Country! There Is Obviously A Large Group Of Intelligent People In That State!
OBAMA-BIDEN 2008 /2012
Don't be fooled by the McCain/Palin rhetoric. Cindy McCain will get over a $577,000 tax break under the McCain plan. Under Obama’s plan an older couple like my husband and I who are 65 year olds with $40,000 in income will see a tax reduction of $2197…nothing from McCain. Check out the tax calculator on barackobama.com to see what it means for your pocketbook.
Vote Obama! Bring snacks for the long lines, folding chairs if you need them...and your patience!
The trend in Montana is another example of how upset America is with the Republicans and their deregulation policy as the main reason for the housing and economic crisis.
This just goes to show the intelligent voters are ready for change
and improvement for the future of our country.
We cannot survive more of the republican leadership.
They have almost destroyed our country and given
our children, grandchildren etc terrible burdens
for years to come.
Please VOTE for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Please help to get our country back to the great
nation we once were.