January 2nd, 2009
02:40 PM ET
9 years ago

Carville makes painful prediction for 2009

 Simple math says Democrats are more likely get caught up in a scandal, Carville says.

Simple math says Democrats are more likely get caught up in a scandal, Carville says.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - You know, people will insist that 2008 had 366 days. I don't believe it. I think it had 36,066 days.

It certainly felt much longer than any year that I've ever experienced. Only time will tell what's in store for us in 2009, but first I have a few predictions.

Internationally, I believe there will be a peace agreement between Israel and Syria in the next 18 months. It is something that will be a priority for the incoming Obama administration.

In domestic politics, my first prediction is one that pains me to make, but I'll make it anyway.

The Democratic Party has had a recent run of corruption and sex scandals. Mathematicians say that there are no such things as streaks and that the last event has nothing to do with the next. The only people who disagree are crapshooters and political operatives. Since I am both, I firmly believe that there are streaks and that political scandals happen in clusters.

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Filed under: James Carville • Politics
soundoff (227 Responses)
  1. Bernie

    Carville's the real scandal here. Instead of being a pessimistic doomsayer, how about keeping positive and working to make things better? But that's just coming from a mathematician, and what do we know?

    January 2, 2009 01:01 pm at 1:01 pm |
  2. dave

    Am i the only person on the planet that would pay good money to smack this guy in the face? Have you ever listened to him? What an idiot. Just like Hilary, another person who would be working in the fast food industry if it were not for the worst president in our history.No, i don't mean jimmy carter.

    January 2, 2009 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  3. Peter (CA)

    Reality...in what world is that?

    The danger has been heightened over the last 8 years by the arrogance and stupidity of the current administration. Continue to cling to the delusions about WMDs–every day it is clearer that we are in Iraq only to continue the flow of Middle Eastern oil.

    Don't worry about Obama...not only does he have the stomach to handle the crises, he has something that has been lacking for some time-the intellect.

    Whine all you want but it is clear that the distorted sense of pride coming from Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld have put this country in a precarious position. We are finally getting on the right track to fix that.

    January 2, 2009 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  4. rob

    You know, Obama could be wrong 90% of the time, and still do a better job than Bush and his redneck cronies.

    January 2, 2009 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  5. Sherrol in Canada

    Bit disappointed in James Carville's predictions, he's losing his touch.
    What about the economy, the two wars, Russia etc.............

    As he's from the south, I'd imagine he'd have a good feel for the state of the GOP and I trust his judgement on that one.

    January 2, 2009 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  6. Lauren the Designer

    I will make a prediction too...

    9 out of 10 bloggers won't care what Carville says.

    January 2, 2009 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  7. All of you are Pathetic Americans

    Wheeler – take a hike

    January 2, 2009 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  8. JJ in NY

    Already making excuses for the Dems............. how sad .

    January 2, 2009 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |


    I find your article rather inane. Guess you're one of the many who don't have hope?

    Too bad. Don't you know? There has never been anything false about hope.

    Listen to Barack. He's smart. He got elected president, didn't he?

    January 2, 2009 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  10. kathy, ca.

    Peace in the middle east? Who's kidding who here..... James, I've always admired and respected your opinions but while I would like to be optimistic; I think our country is in for a world of hurt; in california they want to cut necessary programs; but still allow for instate free tuition for illegal immigrants; they still continue to have free health care; while some, like my husband, who is disabled gets no medical care while waiting till March for medicare to kick in... the pols whether in washington or sacramento; are strictly interested in keeping their jobs not making the tough choices and doing their jobs... and we the people are not being served... not until we get rid of the lifers on capitol hill.

    January 2, 2009 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  11. Denise in Baltimore

    Wow! Now we have political pundits rubbing their crystal balls and taliking about mathematical odds for scandals. I don't know which makes me more weary, those who do, or those who can't and write about those who do. In essence I will pray for President Obama as I prayed for President Bush. My prayer will go something like this...Lord please watch over and guide our leader and give him the strength to walk cautiously through the minefield of the media, repel the negativity of the unconvinced, and work around the stupidity of those who believe Rupublicans and Democrates are all that different!

    January 2, 2009 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  12. Ed, Santa Fe, NM

    wow talk about non news.....

    January 2, 2009 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  13. LJ

    I just hope things change and change for the better. From where I stand the only way to go from here is up.

    January 2, 2009 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  14. Phoenix

    Wow, all these predictions, and none of these Christians have consulted God.

    January 2, 2009 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  15. richard rohde

    Jaye, should scandal ridden democrats be allowed to remain in office? (Charlie Rangel?)

    January 2, 2009 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  16. MD

    It's so funny to me that political scandals are so much at the forefront of our daily lives now. I have no doubt that this kind of stuff has always gone on in government. We just didn't have the 24 hour cable news cycle, crazy papparazzi or the internet letting the entire world in on every little detail.

    We have much bigger "Fish to fry" than this. How about some economic predictions. I lost 32% of my 401K in 2008 and I'm wondering if I'll loose my job to someone offshore (like I did in 2004). So right now, I could care less about much of anything else but whether me and my family will be able to maintain....

    We need to FOCUS people, FOCUS...

    January 2, 2009 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  17. Franco Tirado



    January 2, 2009 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  18. Dan

    I don't really want to make any negative predictions about such a positive incoming administration. We all should be hoping for the best outcomes to the overwhelming problems facing Barack and his team. They will be thinking about every move they make. I think we will all be amazed at the tremendous things that will happen in 2009.

    January 2, 2009 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  19. Terry

    I am not optimisitic about the next decade of American history. None of our problems have been solved.

    Corporations are still up to their typical hanky-panky, sucking up cash wherever they can regardless of the effects on human life and happiness. They will continue to cook their books, bribe our lawmakers, cut our benefits, outsource our jobs, dump their sludge in our landfills, and lie in their advertising.

    Religious fundamentalists will still do everything possible to ram their particular deity and dress-code down our throats since they all know that their Holy One is the only true deity among the thousands of deities. Of course, since no religion appeals to a majority of us, that means that many minorities are trying to shove their beliefs into our laws and habits.

    American voters – mostly Conservatives and Moderates – are still in dream-land, hoping for a democracy in which ther are no taxes, everything is free for, 1% of all children born are NOT autistic, illegal immigrants are not pouring across our borders, schools are not crumbling, our roads are not full of potholes, our national deficit is not ten trillion and climbing, 2.5 million people die annually from alcohol and tobacco, and our poorly educated citizenry cannot name the last few presidents or the three branches of government.

    The Democratic party leadership – the only political party that occasionally tries to solve the nation's problems – is filled with old-school politicians who have made a 'career' of public service. They owe lots of favors to lots of people. Lots.

    The Conservative Party (currently called Republicans) has opposed every effort by this nation to solve any problem since the Civil War. While it would help the nation to eliminate them, this is unlikely as they have a following of true believers who are immune to reason and who vote against their own self-interest in every election.

    Fortunately, I will be dead before life has deteriorate too much. As for those who will survive after I have departed this deteriorating life, good luck. You are going to need it.

    January 2, 2009 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  20. tired of corporate politics

    The saddest thing for 2009 will be to look back at the end of the year and see that Obama has not changed much. Why would he? He has his political machine and Washington DC politics all figured out. He worked the media, caucuses, the corporate money, the rumor mill like a seasoned pro.

    The fluffy paper decoration excitment about the Change will be revealed as a sham. He already downgraded it from the original Change All Politics to Change Republican Politics to Change Bush to Change some stuff.

    January 2, 2009 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  21. mgb

    I'm afraid Carville's understanding of Mathematics is weak, but then should that be a surprise? Random events do in fact cluster. If you observe similar events evenly spaced out, they aren't occurring at random. Perhaps he should stick to playing dice.

    January 2, 2009 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  22. Adam Colorado

    Is Carville trying to create a scandal by suggesting that a scandal is coming? Me thinks so. Stay focused people! Let's worry about the critical issues at hand.

    January 2, 2009 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  23. Superfan

    No no no...you're all wrong. The NY METS will battle the axis of evil in the Bronx and the back page of the News and Post. They will be victorious in 2009. WORLD CHAMPION NY METS!!!

    January 2, 2009 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  24. Zion

    Reality, I see you definitely contradict your username. Look, your boy (George) made the perfect inroad for Obama. We should place him in black history as the white guy who screwed up so badly that peole felt that a QUALIFIED black man could actually help them. I mean after all, we have only invented the stop light, built this country, created the comb, had the patent for the lightbulb stolen from us by Edison, performed the first open heart surgery, the list goes on. Hey, let us know when America screws up something else..the black man will help you, AGAIN.

    January 2, 2009 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  25. Texas Teacher

    Jaye.... sheesh.... Carville's perdictions are only logical for anyone sporting a brain between their two ears! 🙂 He only stated the obvious!

    January 2, 2009 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
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